Quote:
Originally Posted by stackmemaybe
Hi Matthew, first of all thanks for the book.
I just started reading it and I have a question on Part two: preflop play. On page 59 we calculate the EV of the BTN getting called with the bottom of his opening range and we get -0.82bb. Then on page 61, we use the same formula but with slightly different values: 0.278 probability of getting 3-bet instead of 0.234 and 0.217 probability of getting flat called instead of 0.243.
So an increase of the total frequency of being 3-bet and a decrease of the total frequency of being flat called, which gives us an EV of -0.29bb when we get flat called.
1) Why should we open the bottom of our range if it has a negative EV?
2) Why does our EV when flat called increases when the blinds call less often and 3-bet more? Wouldnt that make their range a bit more narrow when they flat call?
3) Random question: I'm not sure to completely understand to term ''indifferent'' as stated in Part one when we want to make our opponent indifferent of calling a river bet. Does this mean that giving our opponent a 0bb EV situation is the best we can do?
Ty.
It is really hard to answer these questions without writing down a ton of text. I'll do my best here and hopefully it will clear things up a bit, but these aren't questions that can really be answered without writing a couple pages.
1) We can't calculate the EV of opening any hand, so I believe you are referring to our overall EV once we've been called. In other words, using the numbers in the book if we open the bottom hand in our range and are called, we should expect to lose overall less than -0.29BB for the hand for opening to be profitable. If we are losing less money than this when our worst open is called (i.e. our post-flop EV is higher), than we should open wider. If we are losing more money than this than we should open a tighter range.
2) There's no way to calculate the EV of our hand post-flop. It depends not only on the strength of our hand, but also the strength of the opponent's range and the strength of our range. For example, a very weak hand in our range might actually be able to make ++EV bet provided our range is very very strong. Yet a reasonably strong hand in our range might actually be only marginally +EV if our range is overall very weak and our opponent can bet very aggressively and likely outdraw us with his bluffs.
3) You can never make the opponent's EV less than 0 as the EV of folding is 0. Make sure not to confuse someone's EV for the entire hand with the EV of a specific decision treating all invested money as dead money.
Example:
EV for entire hand for folding in the BB to a button open= -1BB (you'll have 1 less BB than you started the hand with)
EV for folding in any given situation when you treat previously invested money as dead money = 0BB (this includes folding pre-flop)
Other Pre-Flop Stuff:
Most people (myself included) would probably agree the blind 3-betting ranges vs a cutoff and button open are significantly too polarized. The big blind should likely defend more aggressively against CO and BTN opens than the hand chart should indicate and the blinds should likely 3-bet more aggressively than the hand chart would indicate. Please see post 62 for an example of a more updated 3-betting range vs a button open.
You CANNOT even come close to solving for what is correct pre-flop. I remember making some theory videos for CardRunners 4 years ago and saying "It looks like we need to defend in the button against a 3-bet with hands like KJo, QJo, and ATo and being told 'that seems awful.' Now just about everyone I talk to would agree folding these hands to a 3-bet after opening the button is very bad. The math always indicated folding these hands pre-flop is wrong, but if people don't 3-bet aggressively enough it may be best to fold marginal hands to a 3-bet (though not necessarily hands these strong) especially if the 3-betting range is strong and polarized and you're not very confident with your post-flop skills.
Your best bet for examining pre-flop play is asking yourself 'does this seem to make sense?' when you analyze some numbers. My biggest mistake when writing the pre-flop chapters was trying to use certain models/ratios/etc that don't actually work that well for pre-flop play, but I think they would pretty well for post-flop play. Ask yourself "how could I be exploited with these pre-flop ranges?" and go from there, and if you're like most people you'll realize you're folding in the button too much when facing a 3-bet, not 3-betting aggressively enough, and not calling from the big blind aggressively enough. Again, see post 62 for how to make a more aggressive 3-betting range, and be aware you'll have to learn how to play those ranges post-flop and you'll often be "guessing" after check-calling since you're no longer playing a very polarized range.