Quote:
Originally Posted by Eagle7
Ah, good catch, I'm glad you pointed that out before replying. I've forgotten to screenshot BB's river range as well and included just his preflop range.
Here it is, the most important one for the conceptual questions here I'd guess is the brick river - unfortunatelly FlopZilla cannot handle "50% of A high" or "A high with bdoor fdraw" like crEV can so it's not 100% exact exact, but it will work:
River bricks off, we can take that we're 80 20 favorite for simplicity -
River is a middling card, we're 67 33 -
River is a middling spade (usually great for our range, but not for this particular hand), it's around 60 40 -
Toying around with various cards did lead from a total brick like 2h being the best for SB, through middling cards taking it to 70 30, to some spades which end up with 60 40 for the SB. It also still seems our 80 20 range (for the Pinpoint optimal size concept) is quite small as I figured earlier.
I've excluded Q7o but left Q7s in, and excluded sets and some of his gutshots from his preflop range. That mimics how he will in most cases raise all those earlier and they won't be there in his river range (although I kept a small amount in).
River range is what we're interested in the most here.
It does alter the effect some runouts have as 9T might be still in there, but it's okay for now. It's not like we'll know exactly which gutters he does raise anyway.
Sorry for taking so long to fully respond to this (though I already answered board #3).
Are you comfortable with using the formula for bet sizing discussed in Mathematics of Poker as well as in the river chapter of my book? Keep in mind you'll have to guess how often you're "effectively beat," as even if you're beat only 20% of the time you will likely get raised some % of the time.
Basically, I think you'll want to use the formula to get a general idea of how big you should bet,
keeping in mind betting in position re-opens up the betting and allows your opponent to raise you so betting very small is likely worse than checking. You also will probably want to make sure you're betting some very strong hands (in addition to your medium strength value bets and bluffs) even in your small betting ranges to prevent your opponent from being able to check-raise super aggressively.
So, if J3o is beat 20% of the time, don't just bet an amount that you would if your opponent could not raise. Keep in mind he will raise sometimes, and if you never bet any hands stronger than J3o with a given sizing then a counter-strategy will exist where your opponent check-raises all 20% of hands that beat you. It's up to you if you think you need to worry about being exploited if your bet sizing makes your range too transparent, but I don't think it's particularly worrisome unless you are playing very, very good opponents.