Quote:
Originally Posted by ServerBTest002
@ Spladle
The EV of Hero's BTN range is a function of the EV of the Villain's range. If Villain can 3bet 100% of his hands profitably, then obviously we ought not open any hand from the BTN that will not either call or re-raise a 3bet.
Obv, I understand them are linked, but what I don't understand is the relationship.
Hero's EV on the BTN is the inverse of the blinds' EV.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ServerBTest002
This is wrong. Even if 3-betting will show a profit, it may be the case that calling will show a greater profit. And even if Villain wins by 3betting less than 68%, it's still possible for 3betting to be better than folding.
We are talking only about preflop, def you are right if you consider postflop
I'm confident that you are confused about something, but I'm not entirely sure what it is. Language barrier may be getting in the way here. Let me backtrack a bit and try to respond again.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ServerBTest002
What you have calculated is the point where BB is indifferent between 3betting and folding
This is wrong. Simply knowing how often the BTN will fold to a 3bet does not allow us to calculate the EV of a 3bet, nor is it provable that there exists any hand which is indifferent between 3betting and folding.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ServerBTest002
What do the numbers/variables here represent?
-2,5 = profit when we open and fold to a 3bet
x = % of the times we fold to a 3bet
12 = "profit" if we defend, well this is not a profit, maybe I'm missing this point
1-x = % of times we call a 3bet
If we profit 12bb by defending, this is a strong sign that someone is doing something very wrong. Notice that if you lower the assumed EV of defending, you're forced to defend more often.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ServerBTest002
Let's take a look at pg 69.
When we open to 2.5 big blinds and our opponent 3-bets from the big blind to 9.5 big blinds, he risks 8.5 big blinds to win4 big blinds. And as we’ve already shown, this means the bigblind’s 3-bet cannot be allowed to succeed more than 68 percentof the time.
4 (x) - 8,5 (1-x)
x= 0,68
so if villain wins more than 68%, he's showing a profit (assuming Hero is folding to a 3bet)
this percentage is useful to Hero? Knowing Villain will show a profit if Hero is folding more than 68% what implies? 1-0,68 = times that hero should defend?
Knowing that villain will be able to profitably 3bet with two pieces of toilet paper if we fold more than 68% of our opens to a 3bet demonstrates that we ought not fold more than 68% of our opens to a 3bet.