Hello,
I am stuck on page 35, just got the book and very eager to learn .)
So it says: "the CO opens to 3,5bb and the BTN 3bets to 10bb. Since the 3bettor needs to fold 66,7% of the time to make instant profit the remaining players must defend a combined total of at least 33,33% (I get that). If each of the blinds cold 4bets 3% and otherwise folds, then the original raiser need to defend at least 29,1%.
(1-x) (1-0,03)^2 = 0,6667
x=0,291
x-is the probability that the original raiser defends and
1-0,03 is the probability that each blinds folds"
So we create the equation to the given situation and we equalize the left side (1-x) (1-0,03)^2 with the 66,7% that is the percentage that is break-even and if the original raiser folds more the 3bettor auto-profits.
We use the (1-x) as a way of saying that is the time that the original raiser does NOT defend to the 3bet. That way we also use the 1-3% for all the time that blinds does not cold 4bet. So when we solve equation we get the 0,291 and this is supposed to be the needed % for original raiser to defend.
I am thinking in a way that if we have to defend 33% vs the btn, when we factor in the probability of blinds cold 4betting our overall defending % should drop. And thats what we get when we solve the equation for given numbers. So when blinds cold 4bet we dont care becouse 3bet has already been defended and when they fold we need to defend 29,1% of the time.
Am I way off here?
thans in advance im very noob in this.
Cheers