Sorry for my bad english, but I have an important question related to the book. My math is not good at all. (But it becomes better) so I need some help pls.
I like the book very much and it helped me a lot. I work a lot with it. But beside the small mistake in one of the combos equation and another small mistake where the the positions are wrong (both already mentioned in this thread) I really think it is one of the best books besides MOP and TOP, because it teaches you the basic analytic tools to improve yourself on your own.
But there is one thing that gets me completely on tilt. And that is the page 198. I try for some hours now to get the formula in a script. But it does not work. I solved it with some software and by hand but the results I get for the EV of hero's 3bet don't match with the results in the table on page 198. I used the values of the table and plugged it into the formula. But not one of the results for the EV of 3betting are the same as the the results in the book on that page. So I think the table is wrong?
But thats not the only thing on the page 198. I think the formula is wrong also! not just the results in the table.
the scenario in the book goes: (eff.st: $1000, blinds:$15, CO opens $35,
Hero(BU) 3bets to $110, CO folds or shoves)
Variables: r - PFRvillain; a - perc.hands vill. 4bets;
t - perc. of hands Hero 3bets; c - Heros calling 4bet range; eq - Heros equity
when all in
We want to know the EV of Heros 3bet (given Hero has a hand in his 3bet range) (btw.:there can some parenthesis be wrong in my formula)
EV = ((r-a)/(r))*($50) +
(a/r)*((c/t)*((2015)*(EQ)
-1000)-((t-c)/(t))*(110))
but I guess it must be: EV = ((r-a)/(r))*($50) +
(a/r)*((c/t)*((2015)*(EQ)
-890)-((t-c)/(t))*(110))
I think it is okay to translate the formula like this:
((r-a)/(r)) -> prob.villain folds
(a/r) -> prob. villain 4 bets
(c/t) -> prob. hero calls 4bet
((t-c)/(t)) -> prob. hero folds vs 4bet
so the formula becomes like this: (so some of you can maybe see better what I mean and where my problem is.)
p(villain folds) * ($50) +
p(villain 4bets) * ((p(hero calls 4bet)*($2015)*(Equity)
- $1000)
- p(herofolds vs 4bet)*($110))
I think we just have to call 890 instead of the $1000 effective stack in the equation, because when we get 4bet we only need to call $890 because we already 3betted to $110 so we just need to call $890 to realize our equity in an all in pot.
Am I right or is the formula correct in the book?
Because otherwise, if it is not correct this has an huge impact on the $EV. Please tell me, someone who really knows. Maybe Thomas Bakker can help or some other one who knows good about math.
This is the importanst formula for me, but it is the only one I really had some problems with. I really need help in this question before I am getting complete nuts, because of all the time I worked on it.
cliffnotes:
- I think the formula on page 198 is wrong and hero just has to call $890 instead of the $1000 in the formula.
- I think the table on page 198 is wrong also, regardless if Iam using the original value of $1000 or my own value of $890 to call heros 4bet. The results never matched with the results in the table. (Some were quit close, some results were far off track)