With ICM considerations that's a different question entirely, although I'm not sure having a 89% chance of second/11% chance of first is better than the other way round after factoring in a 60% chance of the average of third to ninth

I've asked this plenty at the table as well .. but always add the provision that this 'will be' the only WSOP ME you will ever play in, period.

You can debate the advantages of having a 'Day 2' chip stack and then going to work. The data is not in front of me, but the percentage of 'top 25' Day 2 chip stacks that actually cash is pretty low.

The math is pretty easy to look at .. getting 8 or 9 to 1 on your chips with AA. Obviously having more chips allows for surviving more coolers in the long run since you wouldn't necessarily be all-in for big pots.

But let's say that 'everyone' has a pocket pair. I don't think AA would be in the 30% EV for that spot as somebody is bound to hit their set 'for sure'. 9 of 12 possible and we see 5 cards on the Board ... Uh Oh! GL

Disclaimer: This will absolutely never happen in the real world, but:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=14333653
pokenum -h ac as - kd ks - qh qd - jd js - tc ts - 9d 9h - 8h 8s - 7s 7d - 6h 6s
Holdem Hi: 278256 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 73233 26.32 204981 73.67 42 0.02 0.263
Ks Kd 50506 18.15 227708 81.83 42 0.02 0.182
Qd Qh 40743 14.64 237471 85.34 42 0.02 0.146
Js Jd 29662 10.66 248552 89.32 42 0.02 0.107
Ts Tc 23094 8.30 255120 91.69 42 0.02 0.083
9d 9h 17148 6.16 261066 93.82 42 0.02 0.062
8s 8h 14104 5.07 264110 94.92 42 0.02 0.051
7s 7d 13453 4.83 264761 95.15 42 0.02 0.048
6s 6h 16271 5.85 261943 94.14 42 0.02 0.058

EV (fold) = 30,000
EV (Call) = 71,064

Now add to the fact that in this admittedly hypothetically completely unrealistic case, if you call and lose, you will:

1. Likely get a free buy in to the ME the next tear
2. get paid to be on multiple talk shows to tell your bad beat story

I still say this would be a trivially easy call.

There isn't one preflop, but that isn't really the point.

What difference does that make?



It's not the right way to look at the situation. You do not care about the number of cashes.



The math isn't as easy as that because tournament expectation isn't proportional to chip stack, and chips are not just a way of surviving bad beats. The extra chips allow you to play better poker and the survival adjustments others have to make to you sweeten things too. Plus if you bust, you have a table of donks you should be arranging a cash game with before the flop hits the felt and can engage in new expectation-increasing endeavours.



Uh Oh! is a fact of tournament life. Postponing it for a hand won't change that.


It's not hard to think of reasons a fold might be best. A stonking last longer with the player on your right, selling 300% of yourself, etc. I like to try and see what I have to change in a problem to change the result and in this case they are generally as unrealistic as the original case.


It works with other hypotheticals too. Lets say after you pay the entry fee they explain that people with 2+2 handles referencing sneaky military tactics only get 500 in chips to everyone else's 30k. If you don't like it they will 86 you into a temporary zombie apocalypse. Same hand as before.



Still tempted to fold?

Good discussion ...

1) It does matter to some (apparently not you) that if they are only going to ever play one ME that they enjoy the experience and do what they can to actually 'have' an experience ... of which playing one hand and busting may not be in their top 5 list of considered memories or goals of playing.

2) You are technically correct, but we may be/are only looking for 'a' cash, our cash. Tournament is about survival. And if entering into a 35% spot doesn't really give us that much better of an opportunity to cash (survive) based on historical data, then we may want to consider other 'personal' factors. It's not hard to accept that having more chips gives you a better chance to cash. But in 'this' tournament you may be entering into a 35% spot that only gives you an additional 15% edge to cash based on the average Player. Is that good enough for you?

3) The math is easy ... 8 or 9 to 1 pot odds with 35% equity ... easy call based on math. Not sure if you are saying there's 'bonus' math involved since you can play more poker ... which should make it more attractive to call.

4) That's the point .. Uh Oh can happen. Now do you want it to happen in a 35% spot or an 80% spot? To me, there's a difference between surviving 8-9 separate HU moments (that may not be all-in spots) and entering into a spot where I have to avoid 8-9 possible Uh-Ohs all at the same time.

Still tempted to fold? Sure, but I've not even stated what I would do in this thread. You're assuming since I'm discussing about a fold that I would be folding. All I know is that every poker player should consider that math when making their decisions, but IMO some decisions are bigger than the math based on their personal situation.

There are countless threads on this site that discuss the merits of going all-in with combo draws that pretty much amount to this same scenario in equity. I've read enough of them to know that those spots are not 'auto' spots in tournaments (as much as they may be in cash).

These spots are fun to discuss and massage no matter how unrealistic they may be ... sometimes I wish my decisions were as clear cut as others make them appear to be for themselves. GL


PS ... OK, you've made an agreement that if you don't cash you can never play poker again! Take that one and run with it. I don't think there's anyone here that would choose a 2 in 3 chance of (instantly) never being able to play poker again against their own ability to navigate that field and limp their way to a cash somehow. IMO that's not even poker, that's gambling! Certainly no sure thing that anyone will cash the ME, but I'm putting my poker life in my own hands, albeit a much rockier road to survival most likely.

I don't know what Dream scenarios you are dreaming of, if you pass on this opportunity.

Passing means essentially that you think you can make 8 times your starting stack more than 30% of the time.

I want some of the pot you got.

Is AA good enough vs one opponent first hand of the ME?

Or would you wait for a better spot even then?

This is not a 'dream' ... it's a hypothetical for discussions. As others have indicated, this 'dream' would be so far out there that dreaming of making the FT might be plausible. (The Rio will do a 10 person $1K Showdown, with the winner receiving a ME seat, but those would be forced all-ins with random holdings.)

Passing can simply mean I want to be around for longer than one hand and not necessarily a decision based on my poker ability. Do I need an 8x stack in the 2nd hand of the tournament? I thought you started with 200 BB or more?

I don't do pot, but I don't mind the smell when it's around ... sometimes.

AA v 'any' hand is 80%, which I think is more than 30-35%.

You pose a nice new question ... how many opponents would someone go against if not the whole table? My initial feeling is whatever would keep me at over 50% equity, no matter the chip counts ... so I guess 3-4? GL

I would rather a dream scenario of AA vs KK 3 times in a row, doubling each time.

some people seem to forget that AA can hit a set just as easily as lesser pocket pairs.

it's painful if someone hits the set.......... BUT it's instant-death for the others if you hit an Ace.

there was a huge debate in the book forum between proponents of harrigton vs. arnold snyder and basically the +EV of simply being alive in a tournament. basically people thinking to fold good EV opportunities early to make sure you stayed alive. BUT i think this related more back to the days when large %'s of the WSOP ME players were horrible. not like that any longer. everyone seems to have some idea of how to play.

That is the indirect point.