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what % on these ? what % on these ?

03-29-2018 , 10:34 PM
Does anyone know what % of the time a good player win IF flop seen?
And if River seen ?
what % on these ? Quote
03-30-2018 , 06:04 AM
Vague question is vague.

It depends on number of post flop players, starting range, position, aggression, etc. maybe you could come up with a scenario you want answered and the community can help from there, but as phrased your question is very broad
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03-30-2018 , 08:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amarri
Does anyone know what % of the time a good player win IF flop seen?
And if River seen ?
This suggests a fundamental misunderstanding of poker. Successisn't about how often good players win pots in generalized circumstances. Better poker players maximize profit in pots they win and minimize losses when they lose.

Poker is far too situation specific to get any usable information from the simple percentages you want.

Give specific situations.
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03-30-2018 , 09:01 AM
Ok maybe I am wrong I thought (not sure) I heard a pro player say if you get to show down a good player is going to win at least 50% of the time.

Dont know if the question becomes easier if I say what % of the time should you win at show down if holding mid pair on the flop with 6 draws to improve ?
I would think it would be 6 x 4 = 24% to improve + the equity mid pair on the flop should have ?

Last but not least if You face 2 players vs you = 3 guys
And on the flop you have 2nd nut flush draw with no pair and the pot is 100 and you have to call 50 its 150 to call 50 or 3 to 1 odds.
Should the all be made since you are 2 to 1 by the river but 4 to 1 on THE NEXT CARD.
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03-30-2018 , 09:32 AM
1) There is something to be said about having a post-Flop edge on your opponents, especially if they are deemed to be passive or calling stations. The more predictable they are the more likely you can (as said above) maximize your wins and minimize your losses.

2) I don't understand your '6 draws' idea .. But a mid pair might be fine against some opponents and it might be death against others. That's why we range our opponents. Winning at showdown and 'needing to improve' are vastly different spots to consider. Against some players you shouldn't count your 'trips' outs since you wont get paid for the risk involved.

3) Your flush example is a little off as well .. but most players will call getting 3 to 1 on the Flop in this spot (even the Turn) although it's really just a break even spot unless you can get paid more chips after you hit. Is your 'high' card any good? Also, I think you know this but, that the percentages you are looking at most of the time on the Flop are based on seeing both the Turn and River. So you have to consider not only that you are making a =EV call, but that you will also more than likely be putting in more chips in order to see the River card. GL
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03-30-2018 , 09:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amarri
Ok maybe I am wrong I thought (not sure) I heard a pro player say if you get to show down a good player is going to win at least 50% of the time.
If you go to the river 10 times, 4 times with the nuts and 6 times with air:
You bet all 10 times and your opponent calls exactly 1 time.

Now you won the pot uncontested 9 times and 40% of the one time that your opponent called. Isn’t that a pretty decent result? And your won%SD is only 40%.

And another easy example why the question is way too broad:
If you play HU, winning 40% of showdowns means that the other player wins 60%.
If you play 10 handed and every hand you play goes to the river 10 way, winning 20% of showdowns means that the average other player wins less than 9% of showdowns.

Scenario #2 is probably significantly more profitable for you even though you only half as many showdowns.
what % on these ? Quote
03-30-2018 , 10:45 AM
I think some of the answers above are a bit off the mark, prob because they have not understood you, prob a language thing.

Won When Saw Flop (W$WSF) is a HUD stat and Harrington reckoned a good range was about 44% to 48% (assuming I remember that correctly, haven't read his 6 max book in 5 years and didn't rate it anyway).

That's pretty dated...no idea what should be nowadays, if you even consider it valid.

mine is 45.8% fwiw which I consider way too low and am actively working to increase.

Won $ at SD (W$SD%) should be around 50%...mine is 50.4%

and if that's not what you meant /p

Quote:
This suggests a fundamental misunderstanding of poker. Successisn't about how often good players win pots in generalized circumstances. Better poker players maximize profit in pots they win and minimize losses when they lose.

Poker is far too situation specific to get any usable information from the simple percentages you want.

Give specific situations.
No disrespect, but I don't think you've thought this through...or if you have you've never played a volume based game online??? Betting success percentages for example, yield significant data about your profitability in any given spot.

Last edited by Fatboy54; 03-30-2018 at 10:58 AM.
what % on these ? Quote
03-30-2018 , 12:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatboy54
Won When Saw Flop (W$WSF) is a HUD stat and Harrington reckoned a good range was about 44% to 48% (assuming I remember that correctly, haven't read his 6 max book in 5 years and didn't rate it anyway).

That's pretty dated...no idea what should be nowadays, if you even consider it valid.

mine is 45.8% fwiw which I consider way too low and am actively working to increase.
48% would be extremely good in a 10 handed game, pretty bad heads-up.

Your W$WSF is also by default lower in a live game where players have a VPIP ranging from 25-95% than in an online game with 6 nits that have a VPIP <12.

There are obviously ranges that most good players achieve, but those numbers depend on the type of game you play.
what % on these ? Quote
03-30-2018 , 07:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatboy54
I think some of the answers above are a bit off the mark, prob because they have not understood you, prob a language thing.

Won When Saw Flop (W$WSF) is a HUD stat and Harrington reckoned a good range was about 44% to 48% (assuming I remember that correctly, haven't read his 6 max book in 5 years and didn't rate it anyway).

That's pretty dated...no idea what should be nowadays, if you even consider it valid.

mine is 45.8% fwiw which I consider way too low and am actively working to increase.

Won $ at SD (W$SD%) should be around 50%...mine is 50.4%

and if that's not what you meant /p



No disrespect, but I don't think you've thought this through...or if you have you've never played a volume based game online??? Betting success percentages for example, yield significant data about your profitability in any given spot.
Thanks Fatboy those were the numbers I was looking for.
Over a large sample size (10 handed) I am 42% on the flop and 55% if showdown.
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03-30-2018 , 08:28 PM
Weren’t there two numbers for won when saw showdown?
Tags around 52%
And
Lags around 42% (don’t quite remember if this number was correct, but it had something to do with wining more pots without a showdown and getting called with river bluffs more than a Tag)
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03-30-2018 , 09:47 PM
What game are we plating op?
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03-30-2018 , 11:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brokenstars
What game are we plating op?
1/2 NL
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03-31-2018 , 01:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amarri
1/2 NL
6m 9m hu?
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03-31-2018 , 08:48 AM
full ring cash
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