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Old 01-11-2018, 01:27 PM   #1
OC1012
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What to do on the river here? (hand analysis)

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players


BTN: 102.8 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
SB: 117.8 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
Hero (BB): 106.2 BB
UTG: 125.4 BB (VPIP: 12.75, PFR: 11.41, 3Bet Preflop: 1.72, Hands: 151)
UTG+1: 91.8 BB (VPIP: 13.04, PFR: 4.35, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
MP: 83.8 BB (VPIP: 13.10, PFR: 11.90, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 85)
MP+1: 111 BB (VPIP: 20.37, PFR: 12.96, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 55)
MP+2: 100 BB (VPIP: 6.62, PFR: 5.96, 3Bet Preflop: 1.39, Hands: 156)
CO: 253.8 BB (VPIP: 13.70, PFR: 10.41, 3Bet Preflop: 3.37, Hands: 547)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A K

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 9.4 BB, MP+1 calls 6.4 BB

Flop: (19.2 BB, 2 players) A T A
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 12.2 BB, Hero calls 12.2 BB

Turn: (43.6 BB, 2 players) J
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 24 BB, Hero calls 24 BB

River: (91.6 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 65.4 BB and is all-in

What do you think is the correct move? I flatted the turn planning to bet or raise the river, but he shoved so... Hmm.

I can't see what Villain is shoving with here as a bluff? Whereas he has a lot of value hands that beat me (KQ, AT, AJ, TT, JJ. Possible flush with suited connecters too, although I ruled most of those out since most of his range for calling with those would include the T, J or A. Leaving only the KhQh for the royal flush.)

Would he shove with KK or KJ? Doubtful? So his bluffs are air only? But what air would he have called my 3bet with pre-flop?
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Old 01-11-2018, 03:44 PM   #2
sixfour
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Re: What to do on the river here? (hand analysis)

After deciphering that post and converting it into real money, get it in

Also lol at saying you flatted the turn intending to bet the river, then checking
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Old 01-11-2018, 04:27 PM   #3
OC1012
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Re: What to do on the river here? (hand analysis)

Good point. Clearly even I was a bit confused going back over that one.

I guess my point was that I was pretty confident I had the best hand, until he shoved.
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Old 01-11-2018, 04:28 PM   #4
answer20
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Re: What to do on the river here? (hand analysis)

1) What do you think your opponent thinks about your c/c on the Flop .. after being the PF 3-bettor?
2) There are very few worse cards to hit the Turn ... and you do it again .. c/c? Notice how the bet sizing went down (to 50% pot) as well.

3) What were you going to bet with only 2/3 pot stack behind? Why would you be surprised that your opponent went all-in with 2/3 pot bet?
4) If part of your plan was to raise (go all-in) on the River why would you be hesitant to call it off here? What did you expect your opponent to bet that you would then be able to raise him on the River?

As played you let him take control of the pot on the Flop .. and it looks like this should save you some chips.

A) c/r the Flop .. yes, dangerous Board
B) c/c the Turn .. OK, the board got worse and you can try to boat the River
C) c/c the River .. Nah, he might have AK/AQh/A9h but as you have already indicated his range to the amount of chips you need to call with are not working out. GL
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Old 01-11-2018, 04:35 PM   #5
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Re: What to do on the river here? (hand analysis)

Surely by betting the flop I'm just gonna fold out all worse hands and make no money?

I have a real issue making money from my big hands. It feels like if I act aggressively, nobody ever calls and I only make a few BBs from the pot, but if I act passively I end up getting sucked out on.
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Old 01-11-2018, 04:41 PM   #6
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Re: What to do on the river here? (hand analysis)

'Surely by betting the flop I'm just gonna fold out all worse hands and make no money?'

This is not correct. There's a ton of draws that can call and some pps. Paired board means it's easier for villain to decide you didn't connect and float. This is actually a horrible spot to slow play. What strong hands can villain make ott that are still 2nd best to your trips?

Last edited by SharkytheFish; 01-11-2018 at 04:42 PM. Reason: typo
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Old 01-11-2018, 05:08 PM   #7
OC1012
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Re: What to do on the river here? (hand analysis)

Ok, so basically I played the hand horribly!

Would it be different if the flop was A6A rainbow? Or would I then be looking to c/c?

Is there any book or webpage that talks about how to identify whether to check/bet/fold in given situations?
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Old 01-11-2018, 05:45 PM   #8
ArtyMcFly
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Re: What to do on the river here? (hand analysis)

I think you can check the absolute top of your range (quads and ATs) on the flop, but AK and AQ should probably be betting for value. Use a small size (1/3 pot) so that villain has to call down with AQs/AJs, KK-JJ and any worse Axs or a draw.

As played, AQ is the only value hand you beat and I think it's a classic breakeven sigh-call/fold spot if villain is balanced. In reality, he's likely to be quite unbalanced in this spot, usually in favour of value (you should never call, as he only bets boats, flushes and straights), but if he's a spewy guy that will bet with random air (e.g. KJs/QJs turned into a bluff) or worse trips, snap him off.
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