Hello 2+2, I'm assuming you get a lot of posts like this, recently I have stumbled into the realization that I am not as good of a player as I always thought I was.

For a little bit of background, I have been pretty much devoted to Poker ever since 1 year ago when I joined uni.

I used to be **** and I used to think that I was good, eventually I started watching videos and more videos, started to understand the basic fundamentals of the game, started understanding how your average weak player plays, I made myself believe that I had created a solid strategy and could mix it with exploitative play to make decent profit in the low stakes I played.

I played with friends that although not great, definitely did their basic studies.

Eventually I started going to Casinos, I obviously had no sense of BRM, but I still managed to do well by sticking to a mostly exploitative style. It's easy to make money when you don't have to do much aside from getting value and make some hero folds.

Unfortunately the fact that I had no discipline + travel costs meant that a couple of bad beats was it all took to make a big hit on my modest bankroll. I wasn't playing with enough money to withstand the variance so I decided to stop going to Casinos before I had no money left and decided to put most of my money online.

I mainly played Zoom Cash and with my knowledge of the game and reasonable hand reading skills, I truly believed that the players in the micros were BAD. 2NL and 5NL just felt like a game of "wait until some fish gives you his whole stack", it felt easy and it seemed that when I was losing, it was mostly due to my own fault.

I was eager to start crushing lower stakes and making a decent earning, making significant amounts of money at casinos just made me somehow even more devoted into the game, but I was also greedy and did not feel like it was fair for me to play less than 10NL 4 tabling.

I didn't even feel like using a HUD was necessary, that's how confident I was. I tried downloading HUDs many times, but ironically I would always take a break from online a day or two after getting a HUD. I never actually got the opportunity to analyze my game and see if I was actually playing +EV.

In my mind, it was just SO obvious that I was a good player for the stakes that I was playing, well today, after a whole weak of winning but mostly losing, I decided to, for the sake of my own sanity, download another tracking software and try to see from a pure statistical POV if I was in fact as good as I thought I was.

For the record, I was very very very confident that the tracker would just say I was running bad and that I was playing good poker.

To my surprise, I learned that in the last 15k hands I played, I was actually at -5bb/100.


Honestly, my brain is still having problems processing this, I'm so lost that I have no idea how to get better.

It's like i'm doing something very wrong when playing and to make it all worse, I have no idea what that even is.



I think I might have reached a new level of delusional, I've come to 2+2 with hopes that you guys will say that I don't have a proper sample size, or that if i'm truly abusing the **** out of Fish that I'm looking at the wrong stats. I'm hoping that you guys tell me literally ANYTHING to reinforce the idea that I'm not actually bad at the game, because honestly, after the time I've spent trying to improve, trying to think ahead, trying to master this game, it's absolutely heartbreaking to find out I'm still ****.

But, I also came prepared. Prepared to hear that maybe I am in fact a losing player, to hear that I probably have many tiny leaks that outweigh all my qualities as a player. To hear that I'm actually playing fundamentally wrong poker and that in the long run I will always lose unless I change my ways.

So what is it 2+2? How do I know?

I'm willing to give any info that you guys need, I just need to confirm my insecurity. Am I actually still not good enough to beat 10NL zoom? Or is it something else that I'm not even aware of?

Hud don't lie. You are not good enough at the game yet. You should pull up your stats and post them then go from there as far as getting advice. Also post hands that you had hard decisions to make in the micro stat forum.

I had to think of this youtube video :
Lex Veldhuis On Poker Players LYING To Themselves!!

15k hands really isn't a sample tbh . It's inconclusive because losing at -5bb/100 that means you lost 750bb in total or 7.5 buyins . That's nothing much and doesn't indicate you are a losing player . I mean you can win more than 750bb in one good session
What you might not realise is the rake is relatively brutal at these stakes . I don't know the exact number but it's way more than 5bb/100 I believe . So you may actually be a "winning" player except the high rake pushes you into the negative

Also if you run KK into AA preflop or AA into sets postflop then your stats are going to be bad even though you might be playing well . There is variance involved in how your graph will look . It's impossible to have a graph which always goes up and up unless you're somehow making godlike folds every time you are behind and sometimes the game coolers you a whole lot more than is fair
Any good player could show you a section of 15k hands where their graph looked crappy.. it's really not a big deal

Ultimately though it doesn't matter what label you put on yourself as good bad etc because you have to keep moving forward and improving anyway . So the most important thing is to focus on direction and pinpointing areas of your game that you need to work on the most

I'm confused.

How many hands total have you played over the past year?

The 15K sample in question; how long did it take you to play that? Was that over the week you

(that makes no sense BTW)

While you were not running tracking software, did your online bankroll grow or shrink? I'm not sure how you could think you were winning if your online bankroll was going down consistently.

You don't. 15K is a pretty small sample size.

You are looking at the wrong stats (maybe). What are your 'My Currency All-In Adjusted' and 'All-In Adjusted BB/100' numbers? Those should be positive over 15K hands even if running bad (maybe).

You didn't mention what software you are using. Does it have a 'Overall Luck Bell Curve' graph like PokerTracker's? Maybe you just aren't hitting sets/straights/flushes?

This is very possible as well. What steps have you taken to identify your leaks and close them? What tools do you use?

The first part is true.

But if you plug the numbers in a simulator, you might be surprised to see that the upper boundary of a 70% confidence interval is only slightly above 0 and the probability of loss is over 80%.

The bigger question for me is, why do you need a tracker to know that you are down significantly? That’s something you definitely should notice on your own.

good news and bad news:

Good news is you are being honest with yourself. Nearly all poker players are delusional when it comes to their skills. More good news is poker aint rocket science and with hard work, focus and discipline you can become a winning player.

bad news is - ya you most likely suck (it is a small sample...but you are losing at a healthy clip - and made no mentions of coolers and horrible suckouts. Also, most players lose money)

15k is a pretty small sample size really. Only bad beats are enough to take you down in this amount of hands. You should not be looking at your winrate with such a small sample.

What you should be doing is analysing your play off-table to find out if you are just running bad or actually playing bad. Look at your starting hands. Are you playing the right starting hands the right way preflop relative to your position. Many problems get settled there and then by fixing this leak.

After getting that part right, just look if you are playing aggressive enough and making the best plays possible. You can do this by using softwares like equailab. Put in the ranges and see if your getting your money in at right spots or not.

It's definitely some work and takes time off table not playing. Most players don't do that. But it really pays off to those who do.

Fair enough. What software do you recommend for me to analyze my play? Anything free for someone with not much money to spend atm?


The sample was over a week, a week where I was not consistently losing, but where I would build stacks and lose them. That was what I meant by winning but mostly losing.

While I had not software, I generally made profit but mentally I was not ready for poker, I had some tilting filled days where I would donk most of my profits, i'm very much aware of this and can say it's no longer a problem.

I'm using Hand2Note + StarsHelper, I have no idea to look at the information you've mentioned, which is why I came to 2+2 to seek where should I be looking. Also I have no idea how to analyze and fix leaks.


I appreciate all you've said, it gave me some more confident and hope.


Also thanks everyone else for the replies, support and general advice. I think the general run bad made me start losing confidence in myself, the question of if im a losing player or not, will only be answered in due time.

Not sure if Hand2Note has anything as I don't use it. I did just watch a short video on it and I didn't see anything mentioned.

I use LeakBuster and have found it helpful. A limited version comes free with HM2, the upgrade to full version costs money. You can also buy a stand-alone version which works with PT4. PT4 also comes with LeakTracker which isn't as detailed, but can help narrow down serious issues such as playing the blinds too much, etc.

SplitSuit offers LeakFinder. I haven't tried it yet but its something you may find useful.

LeakFinder

Look in the Filters section of Hand2Note for anything labeled 'All-In Adjusted...'. Not sure if you'll find it.

I would recommend tracking every hand and doing regular hand reviews/leak analysis. Check out the trial versions of PT4 and HM2. You may find them better than Hand2Note.

If you build stacks and lose them, you're not winning, you're losing. Consistently losing. You didn't "generally" make a profit because you can't cherry pick the days you think count based on the results. It's very easy to blame losses on tilt or whatever but you probably played the same and happened to get lucky on other days thinking you played well.

Do you suck at poker? Probably, since you have negative results and you haven't studied. And no, watching videos isn't studying. It is standard to not be good when you haven't practiced, anything else would be out of the ordinary.

Since I cannot tell you how good or bad your play is, how about you post some of your biggest losing and winning hands and let us be the judge. Just take your biggest pots no matter how standard or boring they are and no matter how confident you are you made no mistakes.

Odds are you are a losing player.

1. Most people are.
2. You haven't consistently won money at any level of poker.
3. You haven't worked your way up from the lowest level.

Maybe you aren't, but it is likely.

Step one is to move down to 2nl and start playing. Play 1 table at a time for at least a couple of weeks, then slowly add tables. Don't move up until you've won $40. If this is "too boring" or "not enough money to interest you," then you are a gambler, not a poker player. Gamblers don't win at poker.

YOu are being fooled by the confirmation bias. You believe you are a good player, so any data that supports that theory you give credit to, anything that argues against it you discount as variance. You need to learn to stop discounting your opponents thought process and dismissing them as fish and start looking at their play. It is very tempting to think that you know the correct way, and anyone who deviates from it is a moron, but really take a look at how others play, and how they are exploiting you.

Everytime I get knocked out of a tournament, I give myself the walk to the car to think that the othe rplayer was an idiot and that I am just so unlucky. By the time I get to the car, I am already looking at how I misplayed certain hands, how certain villains seemed to play really well against me, and what leaks I might have. Stop dismissing other players as fish and assuming you are better than them, and start looking at why you lose. A HUD will help, as it will force you to look at certain trends that cannot be denied. But you really have to develop a self awareness in your game.

15k isn't a small sample if you're going -5bb, especially at that low level.

As far as issues go, it could be any of the following:
You're either playing too many hands
You're 3betting too much
You're a station
You don't call enough in certain spots
You're underbluffing

Poker isn't THAT complex, you should have some intuition about where you're going wrong.

As to the title of your OP. Well, pal, welcome to a very , very large group of poker players. Once you realize your game is weak you actually have a chance to improve!!

I've been playing poker for 20 years and I'm still a mediocre player!
You say you've been playing for one year.
You're still in your poker infancy.
Unless you're some kind of natural talent like a Phil Ivey or a Tom Dwan, for example, you need a lot more time to get better.
Most beginning players llike you make the mistake of rushing things.
But, posting on the forum and recognizing that you need improvement is a huge step.
It seems to me, you're headed in the right direction.
Just keep learning.
Good luck.

grunch

haven't read the other replies, but if nobody has said this yet, give yourself 100% credit for ADMITTING that you're not as good as you thought. You wouldn't believe how many people come through here whining that poker is all just luck and they were unlucky, or online poker is rigged, or the dealer cheats yada yada yada.

Seriously, you're ahead of a lot of people just by admitting to yourself you need to work hard and improve your game.

lots of good advice above but something I have not spotted commented on, probably because not everyone will be aware of it.

You need a surprisingly good game to beat even 5nl 6 max zoom on stars. The notion that you can play a simple ABC game and expect to print cash at 5 nl zoom is a fantasy (alas!).

Also this...

... is flat wrong. Go and check out the graphs of some of the high volume grinders in the pgc forum. You'll see confirmed endbosses who crush their level going on 50K or even 100K downswings. 15K hands is nothing at zoom at any level.

Live guy here ...
1) What is your version of an 'exploitative' style? Getting value and making Hero folds don't generally mix together. It sounds like 'you' were getting exploited!
2) Travel costs? How far away was the casino and how long were your sessions? Were you staying overnight?

3) What were you buying in for? What stake? Did the casino offer higher stakes or were all the sharks playing with you? Did you stay out of the pits?
4) Are any of your friends on this poker journey with you? Coming here to get 'hit over the head' will help but talking things through may help as well.

5) Did any 'light bulbs' go off when watching content or did you just following along and start making those plays?
6) One week is a pretty short period of time .. do you really think you were maintaining focus the whole time? What else do you do with your time? Were you getting bored at the casino so you started to 'try' things?

Lots to consider .. Thanks for stopping in here and we hope you continue to do so. GL