hello there! little question: is there any way to evaluate if you are losing due to bad luck/variance in tournaments by HM2 stats?

I think I am but the thing I want to see is how high is that number

* Said tourneys but I play multi sngs, probably same thing

Due to things like ICM it's pretty complicated so no.

That being said your chip ev should go some way to telling you if you are running really badly especially very early on in tournaments. The issue with this is that due to ICM there will be a lot of spots later in a tournament where your decisions may be very bad even though based on chip EV it seems good.

Ultimately though all you should be worrying about is improve as much as possible whether you are running badly doesn't matter all that much. It happens, MTTs are horrible for variance.

I need to compare chip ev to something?

For example: today I played 5 $4.5 sits on demand. Chip ev is 88, and winnings are -22.5

also I played 26 $1 180 sits, there chip ev is -24k and winning are -24

Probably no way to know, thanks anyway

I have explained that really badly, sorry. That being said explaining it in detail is long and doesn't really give you any benefit. If you are playing such low abi tournaments the reality is you're bad and have loads to improve on so results are massively unimportant anyway. Whether you are running bad or not doesn't really matter.

Yes sure. I just wanted to know in order to compair results with what I wrote on this post: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/2.../#post54437221

I remember lots of hands where it was bubble, I had a better hand and lose these last days. Wanted to analize that and compare it to last months where I was playing a more pasive line on bubbles.

I'm no expert but villains shove seems too wide but arguably correct as I'd expect the vast majority call far too tight in that spot and your call is good, especially against someone shoving too much in this spot. If the BTN shoved even if they were shoving too wide I'd think your hand is more likely to be a fold.

My advice would be to look into ICM because this is where it's important and it will really help you with situations like this, you have to be careful though as there is a lot of misinformation when it comes to ICM in tournaments.

People who later post in this thread who play tournaments/these games may better be able to recommend resources to help you study.

I will be so thankfull if somebody gives me some good and direct study material. I have been playing for 2,5 years and have an av ROI of 10%. I studied most of the time reading here and watching some videos but now I have lost my job and will live of poker (I need like 200 per month, I own my house and live in a poor country ) so I need to study better. I started this week looking for good material but I realy don't know where to start. I am kinda lost because of the vast of info.

I think I will study a subject per week starting with 3betting next week.

Hello tucanroman,

If you need 200$ per month++ , my suggestion would be stick into SNGS from 0.45 to 1$ at grind them daily , play them on tide side , also dont do alot of herocall's , try to play on 1v1 spots do not much sidebet into 3+players in hand ( to not put you in hard situtation) , after evry session go trough your hands and review them to check for small or big mistakes and also what could you do better in what spots , try to make your self confortable wich cards to show when there is 10-14 people left to not be afraid, start from there and study as much you can there is plenty of materiels for SNGS like (bencb videos ,twich etc..)

Thanks bro! I am doing something like that. My BR is around 1k so I play all the $1 180 players of the day (for 10 am to 6/7 p.m where games are alive). 4/5 $4.5 on demand a day and 4/5 Mtts $1.10, some days 1 2.20 when the garanteed is good like the monday 6max 10k gtd . Also when there are less tables to play I play some STTs at my 888 account where I have a $80 BR slowly growing wich sometime will be part of my income

I try to just take 50% of the winnings in order to keep growing. Right now I don't play any turbo but will need to when I climb stakes.

This week I am reading/studing the poker mindset book and doing all the stuff like writing down things and leaks.

From last 30 days I am having a little downswing on sngs but some good results at mtt's so I survived

There will be bro good and bad sessions , just keep always in mind to tilt doesnt effect your game , and after evry sessions review your hands , and check evry single spot where you think you should do something better , also set your goals of what you want to achive thats also realy important , and evrything will be ok..

Wish you big luck in your grind!