tournament help - Beginning Poker Questions

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04-09-2018 , 01:40 AM

PlanetRJ

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 17

One Question:

If i have played 1310 tournaments and my roi is 13,9% , is this enough amount of tournaments played to tell if i beat in tournaments or not? Or i would have to play way more because variation ?

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04-09-2018 , 11:48 AM

statmanhal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,987

You didn’t say what kind of tournament you play. Below is a table I developed for a book I’m working on that shows the sample size you need for a 9 man Sit-n-Go to be 90% confident you are a winning player.

	9-Man SNG.	Sample	Size for 90%	Confidence	WR>0 vs. ROI
Weights for			ROI
ITM Placing Distrib.	10%	15%	20%	30%	40%
Uniform 1-1-1	350	162	92	42	24
Symmetrical 1-2-1	331	149	85	39	22
First Likely 3-2-1	417	189	109	50	29
Third Likely 1-2-3	275	124	70	31	17

So, if you were playing these kinds of tournaments, and finished first, second and third about equally, with a 14% ROI you would need about 200 tournaments to be 90% confident of being a winner.

For an MTT, a much higher number of tournaments would be required because of the higher variance.

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04-09-2018 , 02:47 PM

PlanetRJ

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 17

i am playing micro tournaments with large field, lots of bounty builders and some others

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04-09-2018 , 03:21 PM

tucanroman

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 434

I don't know but playing 1k+ torneys with possitive ROI of +10% can't be something bad

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04-17-2018 , 01:08 PM

Fahrrr

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 32

Quote:

Originally Posted by PlanetRJ

i am playing micro tournaments with large field, lots of bounty builders and some others

The larger the field, the larger the sample size you need. I'd say 5k games.

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04-17-2018 , 02:18 PM

Kelvis

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fahrrr

The larger the field, the larger the sample size you need. I'd say 5k games.

Micro donkaments often have way over 5k runners. A sample of 5k games isn't close to enough.

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04-17-2018 , 10:32 PM

Sky1234

enthusiast

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 58

i think its not enough to know ur real ROI, but 1k games its enough to know ur a winner on thesse stakes IMO.

a lot of ppl go broke before even 500 games

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04-19-2018 , 05:29 AM

Poker Clif

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 5,806

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kelvis

Micro donkaments often have way over 5k runners. A sample of 5k games isn't close to enough.

Depends on where you play. I played about 450 MTTs on Juicy Stakes Poker in 2017 and only the largest had over 100 players, I would say that the average was about 60 players.

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04-19-2018 , 06:16 AM

Kelvis

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poker Clif

Depends on where you play. I played about 450 MTTs on Juicy Stakes Poker in 2017 and only the largest had over 100 players, I would say that the average was about 60 players.

Quote:

Originally Posted by PlanetRJ

i am playing micro tournaments with large field, lots of bounty builders and some others

In other words, pokerstars

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04-19-2018 , 10:55 AM

#10

ArtyMcFly

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 13,256

If you're talking about field sizes of over 1500 players, you'd actually need a ridiculous sample size (like 80,000 games) to get a "true" picture of your ROI.

I wouldn't stress about it. Just keep playing your game. After a while, you just "know" that you're a long term winner, because you recognise that 90% of the field is making terrible mistakes. If you're not yet at the stage of spotting other players' mistakes, you probably just ran well in a few selected tourneys. (Binking 1 MTT will drag up your overall ROI to a ridiculous degree, even over a "large" sample size).

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04-23-2018 , 05:38 PM

#11

aceandajoker

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2016 Posts: 16

in such of short sample all depends on how many big hits u ve taken, lets say u r up 500% but u won a torney of 2k then u prob just go lucky in that occassion, if your profit it s small but continuous you are much more likely to have success in the future games

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