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So I made an account just to ask this question So I made an account just to ask this question

12-15-2018 , 03:37 AM
In Omaha what are the odds of one player having a wheel straight flush and a royal in the same hand? I've looked a bit on google and couldn't find an answer and this place always seems to have good answers so figured I'd ask a math whiz here. I've got to imagine the odds would be even worse than a royal flush over quad aces in hold 'em no?
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12-15-2018 , 07:12 AM
What, you mean the board is something like AQT53 monotone and we have KJ42 of the same suit?
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12-15-2018 , 09:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
What, you mean the board is something like AQT53 monotone and we have KJ42 of the same suit?
That’s what his question says, but I assume what he means is one player having a wheel and another having a straight flush.

@OP: do you think it matters if there are two or ten players in the game?
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12-15-2018 , 02:00 PM
Whenever I play PLO, it feels like someone makes a straight flush every 10 hands. :/
I'm joking, but they come up a LOT more often than in NLH.
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12-15-2018 , 05:34 PM
General Gambling > Probability. Seems to me, e.g. KQ32 starting hand, board AJT54 (the board needs an ace), all cards as hearts (or clubs etc.). All starting combos that can make the river hand wanted combined to the cards needed on the board in any order. The rest is math I don't know anything about.
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12-15-2018 , 06:12 PM
I assumed that OP is considering the case of one player having both the royal and wheel, since that is the easier analysis. To meet the conditions the following must hold:

1. The ranks have to be AKQJT5432
2. All 9 cards must be of the same suit
3. The ace has to be used for both the royal and the wheel, therefore it has to be on the board.
4. Also the board must have 2 of the Broadway cards and 2 of the low cards.
5. The total number of deals is 9 cards out of 52.

Okay, here goes:
.For the 9 ranks all of the same suit, there are 4 combos. That takes care of 1 and 2
.The number of ways to split the 9 cards, 5 and 4 (board and hand) is 9!/(5! * 4!) = 126. The number of successful splits with the ace on the board is C(4,2)^2=36. Handles 3 and part of 4.
.Therefore, the probability of a successful split is 36/126 = 0.285. Completes 4.
.The number of ways 9 cards can be dealt is C(52,9) = 3,679,075,400. Handles 5

Thus, the probability of a specified player seeing the stated result on a specific deal is

4 * 0.285/ 3,679,075,400,

which translates to odds of something like 3.2 billion to 1.

I’ve been known to get calcs like these wrong more often than I would like, especially if I do it kinda quickly, so it would be good if someone can confirm or correct.
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12-16-2018 , 06:32 AM
No I meant same player having the wheel straight flush and the royal.
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12-16-2018 , 04:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DENI3D91
No I meant same player having the wheel straight flush and the royal.
So he'd need to have something like A2Kx in one suit and the board would have to be QJT345. 6 community cards is the future of poker.
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12-16-2018 , 05:16 PM
Considering you can only play two cards it'd have to be like AKsXX on QJT2345s. If you have AKQJs you can have a T2345s board though.

I don't know the answer and I don't see the practical purpose to calculate it.
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12-17-2018 , 04:53 PM
Player ... KQ34

Board ... AJT 2 5

The Ace has to be on the Board since it's used in both SFs.


The odds of Flopping a Royal (5 total cards) in NL are about 650 million to 1, so the odds of basically the same thing happening for 9 cards would be quite a bit higher. 5 times higher as posted above? Maybe ...


I was at an adjacent table when a Player Flopped Royals in CONSECUTIVE HANDS .. He got paid by 2 players in both hands!! That might be a time to consider retirement from cards. Nope, still at it today. GL
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12-18-2018 , 09:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
So he'd need to have something like A2Kx in one suit and the board would have to be QJT345. 6 community cards is the future of poker.
It does work in a regular PLO hand, but the ace has to be on the board.

Players hand has to be single suited and contain exactly two cards of each KQJT and 5432. There are 36 combos for that. Board has to include the A and the four remaining cards of KQJT/5432.

Statmanhal did the math, and at least on first glance I can’t see any obvious mistake.
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12-18-2018 , 11:18 AM
Yeah, I see how it's possible with something like KQ43 all in the same suit. But that hand (and just about any other in a single suit) is unplayable, isn't it? If you get dealt 4 cards of the same suit in PLO, you almost always fold pre.
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12-18-2018 , 01:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
If you get dealt 4 cards of the same suit in PLO, you almost always fold pre.
Eh, no ... I've seen more Showdowns than I'll ever care to see of 4-flush/trips/quads in the hole at the new local 1/2-2/5 PLO games. I'm not exempt either as I bluffed two players off their flushes holding quad Aces in a pretty large game a year ago.

But for sure ... the 'Bookend 4-flush' really shouldn't see too many Flops. GL
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12-18-2018 , 01:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
Yeah, I see how it's possible with something like KQ43 all in the same suit. But that hand (and just about any other in a single suit) is unplayable, isn't it? If you get dealt 4 cards of the same suit in PLO, you almost always fold pre.
It’s Omaha, every hand is playable

I wouldn’t open raise those hands from UTG but if I have to decide between overlimping from the button and waiting 5+ minutes for the next hand to start, I’ll probably pay that $2 big blind..

And more importantly, I wouldn’t want to play in a game where the majority of players folded single suited connected hands.
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12-18-2018 , 01:56 PM
And just for a parting shot ... 'Guy who never folds' isn't having the best day playing 1/2-5 PLO. His BB, looks down at 23Qx after it's limped IN SEVEN SPOTS and folds rather than toss in the extra $3. Flop comes straight flush for him (456) and another player ... BBJ was $30k that day!

Obviously not a good long term plan with that holding. But it also shows you that if you are going to play a certain way ... don't take hands off!! GL
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