Should we ALWAYS be raising strong hands? - Page 3 - Beginning Poker Questions

6% is significant when we’re talking 34 to 40 though. How is AKss vs. 3 random hands out of curiosity? My guess is that jump from 40% is not much larger than 6% and AK is significantly better than AQ.

More importantly all in vs. 3 random hands isn’t really the same as looking at how we play the flop onwards vs. 3 callers, though I’m not telling you anything you don’t know. I mean we should be happier with top pair holding AQss than JTss for example.

I’ll check my win rate with both hands and report back in a day or two.

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03-24-2018 , 05:06 AM

#52

Kelvis

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Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

Quote:

Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy

Sure, but after you raise big and miss the flop a few times suddenly your stack is not looking too healthy at all.

These guys don't like to fold remember.

I feel like you haven't read a single one of my posts.

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03-25-2018 , 01:25 AM

#53

WereBeer

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OK, my online database says:

AQss has a value of +1.4727bb vs. JTss with +0.5612bb, so basically 3x better from a profit perspective.

AQss is my 8th best hand after AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AKss, TT and 99...narrowly beats out AKo in 9th place with +1.3998bb.

JTss is 19th place, wedged between 44 and 55, ahead of AJo and behind ATss.

My conclusion is that AQss is way stronger than JTss, as I said.

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03-25-2018 , 06:17 AM

#54

Mike Haven

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 14,547

Quote:

Originally Posted by WereBeer

How is AKss vs. 3 random hands out of curiosity?

Fwiw, AI PF, AKs wins 41.5% of the time against three random hands, and 35.5% vs four.

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03-25-2018 , 01:27 PM

#55

BroadwaySushy

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Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 3,237

Always knew AK was a dud hand.

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03-26-2018 , 12:29 AM

#56

Louie Landale

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 2,035

Quote:

Originally Posted by WereBeer

The main reason is to value bet i.e. make a bet when we are probably ahead, hoping that our opponent will make a mistake by calling.

Nit-pick: the opponent does not need to be making a calling "mistake" in order to justify a value bet. In limit poker, bet-call is typically the "correct" play for both players.

Clarification: "when ahead" does not mean the rank of hand you have is higher than the rank the opponent has. That only means the minimum hand he can end up with is higher than the minimum hand you can end up with.
KsQs is a big favorite over Jc9d when the board is JsTh4s.

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03-26-2018 , 08:54 AM

#57

EvilGreebo

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Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 3,526

Quote:

Originally Posted by WereBeer

It’s not dangerous thinking at all. The point is we should raise to build a pot because we probably have the best hand, not that we should get married to our hole cards regardless of future action or board texture. We still have to play poker unless the table folds.

Also AQss is way stronger than JTss...I don’t have access to my database right now but I’m sure my win rate is a lot higher with AQss.

I think we're basically on the same page here then. I mean, I'm always raising AQs here as well - but like you said, not getting married to it.

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03-26-2018 , 09:18 AM

#58

Kurn, son of Mogh

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike Haven

Fwiw, AI PF, AKs wins 41.5% of the time against three random hands, and 35.5% vs four.

In other words (assuming equal stacks), it's +EV vs folding in both situations.

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03-26-2018 , 10:50 AM

#59

BroadwaySushy

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How can it be +EV?

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03-26-2018 , 11:03 AM

#60

Kurn, son of Mogh

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy

How can it be +EV?

Let's say everyone has 100 BB.

Vs 3 random hands, you're EV of calling is [400 BB (your stack + 3 stacks) * .415]= 166 BB - your EV of folding = 100BB. So calling is +66 BB.

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03-26-2018 , 12:42 PM

#61

Tutejszy

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in other words, not getting it in here is a mistake that costs you 66 000 bb/100. It is a pretty similar magnitude of mistake as calling preflop allins with 27o.

e: of course, calling with 72o vs reasonable ranges. Vs three random hands, calling with 72o is a much smaller mistake than folding AKs.

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03-26-2018 , 12:48 PM

#62

Mike Haven

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 14,547

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kurn, son of Mogh

Let's say everyone has 100 BB.

Vs 3 random hands, you're EV of calling is [400 BB (your stack + 3 stacks) * .415]= 166 BB - your EV of folding = 100BB. So calling is +66 BB.

I don't think this is correct. Calling one AIPF shouldn't be regarded as calling a random hand. And calling three hands already AIPF is probably a suicide job.

The 41.5% really means what you said if you were first AI and then three called your bet without looking at their cards.

IOW, it's a pointless statistic, and I probably shouldn't have even mentioned it. (Although, in my defence, I did start with a "FWIW"!

)

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03-26-2018 , 01:02 PM

#63

EvilGreebo

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Agreed - 1 AIPF may be "random" but it's not likely. 2 almost never and 3 - forget it. AQ is almost always a guaranteed underdog at this point.

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03-26-2018 , 01:20 PM

#64

Kurn, son of Mogh

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike Haven

I don't think this is correct. Calling one AIPF shouldn't be regarded as calling a random hand. And calling three hands already AIPF is probably a suicide job.

The 41.5% really means what you said if you were first AI and then three called your bet without looking at their cards.

IOW, it's a pointless statistic, and I probably shouldn't have even mentioned it. (Although, in my defence, I did start with a "FWIW"!

)

Re: the bolded, I never said it was. You gave the math vs 3 random hands, I answered with an EV calculation based on the stats you provided. if I took it too literally, I apologize.

It's a straw man. So was my assumption of 3 100 BB stacks. What you do in the real world is situation dependent.

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03-26-2018 , 02:49 PM

#65

Mike Haven

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 14,547

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kurn, son of Mogh

np

Please forgive me, (I love my wee program!), but I couldn't resist trying this, which is (perhaps) a tad more realistic in some drunkenly loose games:

AIPF

Random vs TdTh vs KsJs vs AcQc

11% 26% 29% 34%

(Of course, every change of card or suit affects the expected long term outcome.)

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03-26-2018 , 02:59 PM

#66

Kelvis

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Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

Quote:

Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy

Always knew AK was a dud hand.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy

How can it be +EV?

How does one get 3k posts without understanding this?

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03-26-2018 , 04:34 PM

#67

BroadwaySushy

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Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 3,237

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kelvis

How does one get 3k posts without understanding this?

Are you trolling me?

The first quoted post was supposed to be a joke (an obvious one, I would have thought). As for the second, you can put all your money in PF as a 41% or 35% favorite if you like. I'll fold and save my money for a more profitable situation, thanks very much.

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03-26-2018 , 06:46 PM

#68

Tutejszy

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Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 2,633

as shown above, not calling with AK there is significantly worse than calling with 72o, where exactly do you expect to find situations making you more than 6600 bb/100?

(obv in my above post I also meant 6600, not 66 000)

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03-26-2018 , 07:06 PM

#69

BroadwaySushy

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How are you making 6600bb/100 in a -EV situation? I don't follow your math.

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03-26-2018 , 07:39 PM

#70

KatoKrazy

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Obvious troll is obvious. Stop feeding trolls.

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03-27-2018 , 02:04 AM

#71

Louie Landale

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 2,035

Unless your hand is a big favorite when called (AA, KK, QQ) the key question is: does the raise improve things after the flop for YOU, or does it make things worse. Unless they get close to all-in; the larger pot usually makes things WORSE for inexperienced players, and so these folks should NOT raise marginally; no matter how "obvious" that is vis-a-vis perfect play.

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03-27-2018 , 03:03 AM

#72

Kelvis

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Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

Quote:

Originally Posted by KatoKrazy

Obvious troll is obvious. Stop feeding trolls.

You're probably right, I'll make one last effort.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy

So a tournament player that cashes 25% of his tournaments can never make money? Or anyone below 50% for that matter.

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03-27-2018 , 07:40 AM

#73

BroadwaySushy

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Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 3,237

Pretty weak effort.

Try harder.

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03-27-2018 , 11:45 AM

#74

King Spew

Just average

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 15,224

Let's try a new matching riddle:

Play nice
Sandbox
Kumbiya
Temp ban

Which one does not belong?

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03-28-2018 , 01:34 AM

#75

Louie Landale

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 2,035

Quote:

Originally Posted by WereBeer

My conclusion is that AQss is way stronger than JTss, as I said.

Being overall more profitable, by itself, does not necessarily make it a superior pre-flop raising hand. 22 is certainly profitable against 4 loose passive players, but raising pre-flop in limit would be obscene as u are not going to win 1 time in 5; you just win a lot of money when you flop your set.

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