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Should we ALWAYS be raising strong hands? Should we ALWAYS be raising strong hands?

03-28-2018 , 02:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EvilGreebo
OP - When you're playing low limit live and you c-bet into a flop you missed, you are bluffing.

Bluffing low limit live is -EV. Betting into 4 other players when you missed the flop is suicide. Even with AA if you didn't hit a set, with 4 callers, check/call and check/fold are often better choices than bet/call or bet/fold.

As for your other question - personally I don't like OPEN limping, ever, but I will over-limp (that is, limp behind other limpers) plenty in low limit live games. The thing is you can't over-limp and then call down - you have to be able to fold the weak pairs and lose a little, over and over, in order to find the spot where you flop the big smashes and can pull the "i've got top pair! I'm all in" players along with you. Even so, doing so can be very high variance as a flopped 2 pair with low cards is very vulnerable.
This is a little off from what you're asking, but maybe you should work on your C-betting. For example, when I decided that C-betting was a weak area for me, I looked at a chapter on C-betting in a poker book (Bluffs, by Jonathan Little.) I wrote down some bullet points to use as a guide and I put them on a clipboard near my computer for online play.

Here are those bullet points:

1. Consider a C-bet:

Against 2 players, both will miss the flop 42% of the time, making a C-bet profitable.
C-bet dry boards.
C-bet high card boards
C-bet on all boards where you have a range advantage.

2. Consider not making a C-bet:

C-bet less against good players.
Check if you think villain is likely to fold.
Consider checking with marginal made hands.
Check when the turn is unlikely to make your hand worse.

Of course, studying any topic is about more than bullet points, but that should give you an idea of where to start.
Should we ALWAYS be raising strong hands? Quote
03-28-2018 , 05:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Louie Landale
Being overall more profitable, by itself, does not necessarily make it a superior pre-flop raising hand. 22 is certainly profitable against 4 loose passive players, but raising pre-flop in limit would be obscene as u are not going to win 1 time in 5; you just win a lot of money when you flop your set.
My comment about the strength of AQss was in response to the statement that its 'marginally stronger than JTss', in fact it's much stronger.

I didn't claim or imply that most profitable = most raise-able (for want of a better word) although there is considerable correlation. Although in point of fact, AQss is both much more profitable and a generally superior pre-flop raising hand than JTss.
Should we ALWAYS be raising strong hands? Quote
03-28-2018 , 03:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelvis
You're probably right, I'll make one last effort.



So a tournament player that cashes 25% of his tournaments can never make money? Or anyone below 50% for that matter.
Daniel Negreanu got some statistics together on who the big winners are on the Word Poker Tour. Jonathan Little further analyzed the numbers and found something interesting.

The players who made the most profit (not gross cashes) were clustered between a cashing rate of 8% to 16%. Little and Negreanu were both in that group. Based on that, Little came to the following conclusion:

If you cash less than 8% of the time, you're not cashing often enough to make a profit. If you cash more than 16% of the time you're not taking enough risks to get the rare big cashes necessary to make a profit.

It wouldn't be too hard to do what Negreanu and Little did based on online microstakes data, but it make sense to me that there would be a sweet spot somewhere.
Should we ALWAYS be raising strong hands? Quote
03-28-2018 , 04:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poker Clif
Daniel Negreanu got some statistics together on who the big winners are on the Word Poker Tour. Jonathan Little further analyzed the numbers and found something interesting.

The players who made the most profit (not gross cashes) were clustered between a cashing rate of 8% to 16%. Little and Negreanu were both in that group. Based on that, Little came to the following conclusion:

If you cash less than 8% of the time, you're not cashing often enough to make a profit. If you cash more than 16% of the time you're not taking enough risks to get the rare big cashes necessary to make a profit.

It wouldn't be too hard to do what Negreanu and Little did based on online microstakes data, but it make sense to me that there would be a sweet spot somewhere.
My experience agrees with that 4 years running 2013 - 2016, I had an ITM of about 18% and an ROI in the +56% range (low buy-in online MTTs). last year I absolutely sucked. 6.5% ITM and a -62% ROI.

Jury's still out this year.
Should we ALWAYS be raising strong hands? Quote

      
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