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 06-16-2017, 05:52 PM #1 p0ker_n00b adept   Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 1,083 Sample size, specific math question pls help Let us say you have a winrate of 5bb/100 over a 'large' sample How many hands sample would it need to be to where if you lost 10 BI's in one day, the winrate would only change .5/100 to 4.5/100? Because, I theorize, that is about which point a sample size is accurate enough to be considered a 'true' winrate. The reason this question came to mind is that over a 7000 hand sample at 50NL, my winrate has fluctuated from -.09 to +9.5 in just a single session, running on a mini heater so to speak. So the 7000 hand sample is quite obviously ridiculously insanely tiny
 06-16-2017, 06:31 PM #2 Kelvis Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 4,892 Re: Sample size, specific math question pls help About 200k
 06-16-2017, 08:42 PM #4 p0ker_n00b adept   Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 1,083 Re: Sample size, specific math question pls help very detailed answer! So even after 100,000 hands, a 10,000 hand negative 10 BI swing brings it from 5bb/100 to 3.6bb/100! That is still a pretty extreme change of winrate!
06-17-2017, 04:58 AM   #5
Kelvis
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 4,892
Re: Sample size, specific math question pls help

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly I think it's nearer 350k (about), but it depends how quickly you drop the 10 buy-ins.
OP said one day so I assume pretty much instantaneously. 200k hands is 100 buy ins, losing 10 buy ins means a 10% deduction so you go from 5 to 4.5.

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