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Old 08-04-2020, 05:25 PM   #1
Ewawoowaa
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River bet sizing (Implied odds)

Hey I am just wondering how much it is realistic to be able to extract on the river in terms of percentage of the pot.

It is important as it often makes the difference as to whether you call or fold.

I know it depends on the player ext but I'm looking for a general answer.

I assume at the moment that anything below 33% will get called for my calculations, should I increase this in my calculations?

Replies will be greatly appreciated.
Many thanks.
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Old 08-05-2020, 02:35 AM   #2
tombos21
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Re: River bet sizing (Implied odds)

Use Pot-Odds for this calculation. You call with anything that has enough equity, as defined by your pot odds, to be profitable. So it depends on their betting range, and the size of the bet.

For example, if villain bets 200% pot, you need to win at least 40% of the time against their betting range to call.



Your equity depends on their betting range. If you know they would only make this bet with the nuts, then you won't have the pot odds to call with anything less than the nuts. If you know they're betting wide, then you'll have more equity and be able to call wider.

Their betting range defines your equity. The size of their bet defines your pot odds. Call when equity > pot-odds
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Old 08-05-2020, 09:55 AM   #3
answer20
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Re: River bet sizing (Implied odds)

I like the chart above ... if you are facing a bet. I think you are looking for how to size your own River bets as well.

Implied Odds is not the right term in this spot. Implied Odds are chips that 'might' be available on future streets when we are facing a bet that may not be +EV in it's self, but when the 'implied' chips are included could be +EV in the long run.

Betting for value on the River is not an exact science and some of those factors are mixed in above as well ...
1) Position
2) Opponent type
3) Pre-Flop action and subsequent action
4) Pot and remaining stack size
5) Opponent's image of bettor
6) Board texture as compared to each Player's PF ranges

You might be able to use the chart above to come up with a minimum or average (dare I say GTO) bet sizing, but I think where most Players miss out on value is recognizing what type of Player they are up against and adjusting their sizing accordingly.

You may have to go as low as 15% pot to get a call from a Nit/tight on a coordinated wet Board, whereas you can go 'pot' or more with other 'non-believers' or calling stations.

I'm a live guy, and there's certainly a lot more 'pride' in live games whereas you probably need to stick closer to 'formula' with online spots. GL
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Old 08-05-2020, 10:06 AM   #4
1llegAl
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Re: River bet sizing (Implied odds)

Put your opponent on a range, calculate your hand equity vs that range and call if your equity is greater.
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Old 08-05-2020, 05:48 PM   #5
statmanhal
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Re: River bet sizing (Implied odds)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ewawoowaa View Post
Hey I am just wondering how much it is realistic to be able to extract on the river in terms of percentage of the pot.

It is important as it often makes the difference as to whether you call or fold.

.
I think that OP may be thinking of implied odds. He questions whether he should call or fold. Well, your option on making a river bet doesn't include call or fold.

I think OP wants to determine how much to bet on the river with a drawing hand if he calls on the turn with poor immediate odds so as to make the turn call +EV through implied odds.

An implied odds model can provide insight. One that includes villain call probability on the river, probability hero hits, probability hero wins if he hits and effective stack size.
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