Another source you can use to improve your poker math is a 7 (or 8?) part vid series on www.deucescracked.com called The Mathematics of No Limit Hold'em by Wilt On Tilt. WoT does a great job of SIMPLIFYING all of the poker math you need to know at the table so that its easy to understand and use.

DC offers a 7 day trial too. I would also recommend From the Ground Up and Road to Robusto NL. Both are by Tubasteve.

Another great resource I used to get introduced to poker math was Ed Miller's Getting Started in Hold'em. You can actually purchase it on this site.

This thread is cash!

thhhhhhhhhiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiissssssssssssssssssssss ssss.

even holy EV more so thhhhhhhhhiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiissssssssssssssssssssss ssss.

Not soo much the mentioned labels but we must classify them however the hell you want with independant optimal strategies for exploitationing!!!!!!!

Figuring out their hand range is the key. We're talking about calling stations, so you need to know how weak of a hand they will call down with. Will they call top pair, no kicker? second pair? overcards? gutshots? Make answering this for each player your top priority.

A value bet is a bet where you expect your opponent to call more often with a worse hand than with a better hand. Poker is gambling, after all, so you can't wait for this ratio to be super lopsided. Bet small edges (aka "thin" value), but do it in a way where you build big pots with big hands and small pots for small hands.

When you have something, figure out if you are ahead of the midpoint of his calling range. If so, bet for value. If not check. If they call with first or second pair on boards without aces, and you've got top pair with a weak kicker, bet for value, as you are winning more than half the time. Don't go nuts and build monster pots - but do build the pot when you have something. Some people talk about how many "streets of value" a hand is worth. If your hand is a weak made hand, but ahead of his range, then maybe it's worth one street of value. If it's ahead of 3/4 of his range, maybe it's worth two streets. If you have a very strong hand, go for three streets of value, by betting 2/3 pot to full pot on the flop, turn, and river, maybe more on the river. If you have a pretty strong hand (top pair good kicker against somebody who will call top pair and second pair good kicker), then maybe check a street for pot control or use some smaller bets like 1/3 pot.

Or maybe you hit your flush on the river. The pot was small. Make a pot sized bet. If they are really bad, overbet the pot. Normally a good player would see a huge bet and go "what's up" and be very cautious. Calling stations will have a higher than normal threshold for realizing things are bad. Learn where this threshold is. I play with a guy at a home tourney who can can fold to an all-in bet. So often I try to take half or 2/3 of his stack instead of all of it. It's amazing how he'll happily drop 3k of his 4800 with K9o on a T94Q6 board.

Often I'll raise to isolate him. Let's say I had KQ in late position in the hand above and he limped. I'll make a 4X raise and often be heads up with him. Maybe now there's 800 in the pot. When the flop comes T94, he checks. So I check (I rarely cbet calling stations). The turn comes and bingo, TPGK. He checks or makes some feeble bet and I'm blasting out a pot bet or raise. He calls. Now the pot is 2400. The river comes and he checks and I bet 1800. He calls and I take 2/3 of his stack.

Think about how it would go if the situation was reversed and you had K9. Probably you fold preflop if he raises 4x, but he doesn't. Maybe he limps too. If somehow you get to the flop, you check it on the flop and he probably checks. On the turn, when we check and he bets 800 we fold because we're probably behind and when calling stations lead, they have always hit something. So when he plays it, he loses 2/3 of his stack, when we play it, we lose very little. Easy game. This example assumes a very bad calling station, but for less bad calling stations the principles are the same, just the edges are smaller. Maybe a better guy won't call 2400 on the river and we have to make an 800 bet because we know this.

Maybe we have AT instead of the KQ. So we bet the flop 600 and he calls. When the river comes, it hits his range, but we don't freak out. We have 2nd pair, good kicker now on the turn with a 2200 pot and a modest scare card. If we think he can call with a 9,T,or Q, we need to take some value, but betting both turn and river might be too agressive as our second pair is a little vulnerable. So maybe we check behind on one of the turn or river, happy with two streets of value and some pot control.

LOL

I think you are palying in a game with some FE. In my live game if I were to make the same play I get called by 3=6 players even I raise to 10-15bb. So now you see a flop with 4 players and you have King high, now what? and then some one bets the flop you want to call with King high no pair and only a gutshot with two overs. Okay lets say everyone checks, you want o build a pot with TPGK and go for 2 streets of value?


What happens when 1 player bets out and gets one-two callers on the turn and you have that same top pair Queen kicker do you over call? Raise for value? What river card do you want to? Do you want to call river again. Situations happen like this all the time in my live game, like you said they will call with K9, check the flop and sometimes just check the turn, another person could have AQ, or AJ looking for a gut shoot, other palyer could have a small pocker just wantingt to see the river etc....

Part of the value betting strategy requires you NOT to bet hands that may be behind. Be patient. "Having a hand" is relative, and if your opponents are loose, you get a hand more often, not less. You just have to beat the midpoint of their range.


Well, there are levels of bad. It's all relative. I'm thinking of a typical microstakes game on a poker site. You are talking about Zynga poker level play. So you take the value betting strategy even farther. BTW... If there was no fold equity, you'd be getting called by all the players, right.

The value betting strategy requires volume, so don't bet 15bb preflop. STOP trying to get people to fold. You want them to call with junk. Really. You'd much rather have 5 flops with 5 players for 3BB each than one with 60BB in it when 4 people call.

To your example, if I miss the flop and someone bets, I fold unless I've connected with the flop. Passive players don't bluff. I'm behind so I fold unless I've got odds to draw. Here's another factor of it: in a game with calling stations, your implied odds are much better than normal. If you hit your flush, the guy with top pair will stack off to you. So play your suited connectors more. Play your A3s hands more. Set mine more. Keep the pot small until you have a hand that's likely ahead, then inflate the pot as appropriate for the amount you are ahead. The less they fold, the greater your ability to control the pot size. Pay attention when they raise or make an unusually aggressive move. It's never a bluff, so fold.

Let's say a player bets that turn and gets two callers. It's still a question of what hands likely have me beat vs what is their calling range. What hands beat me? The straight, trips, two pairs, and AQ. What hands call? If you see 3-4 players to the turn repeatedly, you have to know most of them have junk. They call with the hands that are ahead plus straight draws, weaker Qs, Ts, maybe weaker pairs, maybe just overcards. While it's a little more likely that you will lose the pot, your pot odds are probably better. That's an important point.

The point of value betting is to take the risk that your are beat because your equity when you are not makes it a profitable play. In the game you describe, I'm going to try to take KQ to showdown, unless somebody makes a big raise. Let's say I have 5000, the pot going into the flop was 5 players for 1500. On the turn, 3 players coughed up 500 each so the pot is now 3000. With these stations, I'm probably best a lot, but often not. Maybe 50% of the time I'm good. I'm not looking to play for stacks here. I'd rather have these odds 3 times for 1/3 of my stack than once for all of it. I've put 800 in the pot so far, and I'd be happy if that ended up at 1600. So maybe I try to check the turn and bet 800 on the river. Let's say it goes according to plan and both other players check and call the river. The pot adds another 2400 and ends at 5400 and I figure I'm best half the time, so my equity is 2700 and I invested 1600. On average I gain 900 each time I get this deal. If I lose it, I just try again. If I go 0 for 3, oh well it wasn't my night. That'll be balanced by the times I go 2/3 or 3/3. If I go 1/3, I spent 4800 and won 5400 and MY STACK GROWS even though I was unlucky.

I dont agree with this at all. Its simple math is it not? We all get the same hands if we have a big enough volume right?

So lets take a typical hand in my game, you raise with AK or AA and you get 4 callers, most of the time you will just flop a pair/over pair, but 4 other players steal your equity and you wont feel happy putting a lot of money in OTT or OTR, any flop that contains any 2 suited cards or any QTX, JTX, KTX, KJX, KQX, 986, 764, type flops with 2 of the same suit will hit their range a lot (because there is more hands against your 1 pair DUCY). I always find myself folding either turn or river because the board sucks and I have two players calling my flop bet. I have made many threads about these situations and get soem good advice (which is usually to fold) but thats all I ever do - FOLD and I cant win by folding. The reason I laughed when you said,

Because poker is easy when you have a hand, you flop a full house EZ game, you flop a straight easy game. You turn the nut flush EZ game. In reality I spend a lot of time just folding because I miss the flop, even when I wait for good hands, even when I only plays hands in CO/BTN seats. And even when I do flop a set, I am forced to fold river because they have made a flush etc..This is were I struggle, dumping chips in the pot TRYING to make hands that NEVER come which is a lot of the time or hitting hands only to be outdrawn. My game is so weak tight, I never bluff, I never cold call raises, I never limp in EP, I fold on missed flops when I was the preflop raiser etc........its like I HAVE to hit a hand to win or I cant win.

It is simple math. We all get the same starting hands over time. But that doesn't mean we have an equal chance of being better when both see the flop. If we fold more and see the flop with a better range because our opponents are looser, then we expect to be ahead more often, given that we made it to the flop.

Suppose we play with somebody who always calls. They are as loose as possible and see 100% of flops. Suppose we take the top 30% of hands to the flop. Then when we both see a flop, we're ahead 85% of the time (our equity is 61%, though). If they see 50% of flops, we're ahead 70% of the time (equity = 54.4%). This assume HU to keep the calcs simple, but with more players the logic is similar.

rooster i feel your pain... but A-K and any overpair in a cash game is one where if you dont hit and you have multi callers you probably wont win, you might bet and everyone folds but the 1 person that got you beat and they dont let go pairs

i win more hands with 6-7suited 9-10, 22 33 44 etc than anything else... A-K if you overplay or aces just makes you lose more $ than you should and you never get payed off when you hit

dont get me wrong, they are great tournament hands but i hate them in a cash game

Huh? If we play top 20% hands and one opponent plays top 50% hands, then we are ahead 80% of the time we both see the flop, with an equity of like 58%. We should be raising preflop, and if we hit the flop, we should be betting for value.

If you are really afraid to play TPTK or overpairs against two calling stations who often chase draws, then you have a huge leak in your game. Bet large enough to deny them proper odds to draw. When draws do land, try to keep the pot as small as possible, and be prepared to fold to aggressive bets, so you can deny them the implied odds the were seeking (whether they know it or not).

This might be typical of what you described:

Scenario 1: We have TPTK or the overpair aginst a gutshot and diamond draw and top pair medium kicker:
Board: Kc Td 4d
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.844% 55.51% 00.33% 54137 324.00 { AA, AKo }
Hand 1: 38.342% 38.34% 00.00% 37393 0.00 { Qd9d }
Hand 2: 05.814% 05.48% 00.33% 5346 324.00 { KJo }

My point is that you don't even need TPTK:

Scenario 1: We have TPGK aginst a gutshot and diamond draw and any two broadways:
Board: Kc Td 4d
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.291% 36.37% 01.92% 241406 12732.33 { KQo }
Hand 1: 39.215% 38.52% 00.70% 255629 4645.33 { Qd9d }
Hand 2: 22.494% 21.15% 01.34% 140368 8924.33 { TT+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

In both cases, we should bet for value because we can get called by worse. We should bet large to deny pot odds to the draws. We should be betting for value, even though in this example, we don't have the most equity in the pot right now. It's still profitable because we have pot odds due to the dead money in the pot and the fact that our equity is > 1/3.

If the turn helps draws but not us, THEN we should consider folding. But with a lot of dead money in the pot, we'd still prefer to get to showdown for cheap. This might be a good time for a probe bet. If the station raises it, we're beat and can bail. If not, we get to showdown for cheap. Lets say there's 2000 in the pot and we are still ahead 20% of the time. We make money by betting 400, because we're still good often enough because of the dead money in the pot. If we are reraised, fold. If we're called, we win 20% of 2800 = 560 for our 400 investment. +EV

There is your problem........................you think one players calls. Try 4 players calling.

The thing is they play a draw the same way they would play a weak two pair hand or often slowplay a big hand. They often just CHECK AND CALL sometimes..........with NOTHING. The best way I can describe it is with a hand that I played years ago.

I have AJ I raise preflop get 3 callers, flop is J-7-2 I bet for value, 1 player calls, turn is a blank 3, so picked up a flush draw, I bet and he C/R all in for a little more I didnt insta-call, I just looked down trying to put him on a hand that would call flop and c/r turn (it wasnt more to call like $30 in a $200 pot) "I have no idea what you have but I know you have me beat" ............yeah he had pocket 3's I just wanted to see the turn he said....most players think the same way it hurts my head talking to them. Another guy told me once if there was 1 club on the flop he is going to call me, flop has 1 in it I put him all in with TPTK and he shows Q4 and hits runner runner flush even when its a MW pot. Basically he was willing to call most of his stack with a 3 to flush on the flop just hoping for runner runner flush, it only takes a few of this clowns in every pot to make you take a back seat.......just waiting in the wings for hands that never happen.

Rooster, you just talked about 2 +EV plays. Variance is a bitch. If you can't handle it, poker isn't the game for you.

Yeah I know. I just trying to give you guys an idea of how the game can flow sometimes. So when I do have AK and bet and get 3 callers going to the turn its very hard to put them on a range that you beat (as a group) like for example I could say for sure one person is drawing or that one player has top pair but for the other two players I have no idea- they cant all have 1 pair? should I bet for value again when they check it to me (which they often do) etc.....

You don't have to be a favorite to win the hand to get value on a bet - you just have to have a greater equity share than the percentage that you are contributing to the pot. So if you bet and have 3 callers, you just need >25% equity for the bet to be for value. People often lose sight of this.

I totally understand this for example,

If I put in $200 with an equity of 30% verus 3 others its +EV

200 x 70 = -14,000
600 x 30 = +18,000
Profit of $4000

But poker itsnt played like that. My argument is this,

Money won at showdown - (Money lost before showdown trying to hit hands + Money lost at showdown)

I could have a run like this,

I have AK raise to $20 get 4 callers miss the flop - c/f
I have AK raise to $15 get 3 callers, hit TPTK, bet $45 for value, c/f turn when a draw hits
I have a small pocket pair, limp in miss the flop (x 7 times)
I have a small pocket pair, hit a set bet flop and turn, river completes flush c/f
I have KK raise to $35 get 3 callers, Ace high flop - c/f
I have SCs in LP, there is a raise to $12 with 3 callers before me, I call - c/f flop

Rinse and repeat then I get a hand were I have 3 callers were I have 30% equity, lose it....

It was an illustration. Do I really need to do an example that shows our profitability goes up if more people call with bad cards? Suppose 4 people call with "top 50%" ranges and we play something like AJo. Do you really think this is a -EV play? If you hit the A or the J, ***BET***. If not, fold unless you have a strong draw and the implied odds justify it. Calling stations improve your implied odds, btw.


That's poker. You can't win every time. Do casinos whine every time somebody hits a jackpot at slots? No, they celebrate it and make sure that the people have a wonderful experience. A good chunk of poker is about selling the fun of occasional luck to the fish. Show up the next week and make the same bet, every time. Play the odds. Focus on what you can control: the decision making process is yours, individual results belong to luck. Trust that in the long run, if you make good +EV decisions, based on the odds and statistics, you will win money.

BTW... you don't have to stack off on the flop with TPTK. Against players who will call this badly, you can bet for value without putting your stack on the line and be secure in the knowledge that you can get it all in when it's even more or a sure thing. There is no shame in reducing your variance some, making a 3/4 pot value bet, getting cautious when the flush lands, and checking it down or letting him shove and folding on the river. If you are properly bankrolled, though, your shove was for value against a player who will stack off this badly. So rebuy and expect to win your money back.

Hi there, I'm just joining this thread which appears to be about playing against loose players where their range is wide.

I used to think that this sort of situation was analogous to a vacuum. Yes, they have a wide range so you play good hands and bet for value. However, my opinion is that it's much more than that.

In the above quote you are talking about stacking off with TPTK. You don't mention stack sizes so I'll assume some here. Let's say with your PF raise and two or three callers the pot is 25 BBs (you don't raise 3BB with these guys you raise 5-6BBs). Effective stacks are now say in the 60-80 range.

With your proper reads on these loose players, I feel you can get it in on most flop with TPTK or an overpair and expect to be called with TPNK or a draw. If you look at the stack to pot ratio, these calls by the loose player are obviously wrong. So you need to weigh the times he has some stupid hand like two pair or a set, etc. You can do that with your PF raising. Loose player will usually tell you if he has TT-AA or AK-AJ. So raise PF and read his (their) reaction. In a loose game, this is one of the most useful sources of information. Raise PF and a call means low range and a raise means high range. Position of course doesn't matter to them so just disregard that. But pay attention to their open raise tendencies.

Anyways, my point is that you can get stacks in on the flop with these guys and a lot of times TPTK is a mathematical favorite given the pots odds of the 60-80 BB effective stack all-in into 20-30BB pots. If the guy has a flush or straight draw with no pair, you are good math-wise. If you have him out-kicked you are great math-wise. If he has something better, deal with the variance.

It's late here so I hope I made sense and added something here. I look forward to comments.

Cheers.

PS: I just wanted to add a last thought. Obviously in NL holdem we are not stacking the flop or turn with 3 or 4 or more times the pot in our stack with TPTK on a regular basis. However, my point is that reads of the player and situation can dictate an all-in with TPTK against the right opponent. His range dictates our math and his actions show us his likelyhood of TPNK, draw or monster. If you add it all up, you avoid competent players and rate loose or bad players on what they may be doing.

Edit: Lol, I just read through this whole thread and noticed I posted in it last year. Glad I didn't contradict myself, or did I?

Nice post CMAR. Good read.

--- Could not have said it better mysef

Everyone talks about playing a tight game even if there name has the word fish in it? What is playing to tight? Utg range? Defending blind range?

sorry bro i never seen this post ... hhaaha go figure 2 years later and i still have no clue about the math of poker, but my roi% is 134 haha. thx man i am going to check this out right now! =)

LOL - a little sarcasm it seems doesn't go a long way! Good work to you sir. Captain Literal needs to learn to lighten up... stupidity is and never was a good look!

Any excuse to read CMAR's OP again, but what a weird reason to bump an old thread.

just my opinion, in terms of outplaying at the micros.

Use position
Get value for your good hands.
Make disciplined folds when villain has obviously hit
Look to steal small pots against passive fit/fold fish

if you can do all of the above I would suggest you are "outplaying" the vast majority of micro players and over decent volume would generate a very healthy sustainable winrate.