Quote:
Originally Posted by A.Ertbjerg
Very decent article mike.
Just a couple of things:
Blockers matters when doing the math with AK. I'm to lazy to redo the math but in the case of 4-betting vs a guy who 3-bets 11% and shoves QQ+,AK you are blocking a tonne of his shoving range. Nominally QQ+,AK is 34/1326=2.6% but since we are blocking AA, KK and AK he only have 21/1326=1.6%. Obv. you would need to take into account that you are also blocking some of his bluffs. As I said, I'm to lazy to do it just wanted to point out that it matters.
Also, I'm not convinced that flatting isn't a better play. 4-betting is +EV as demonstrated but I think flatting might be better if villains aren't a lot. In your 11% 3-bet, QQ+,AK 5-bet example I would think flatting AK is superior. Against those guys I would much rather 4-bet/call 33 (I would assume you can 4-bet/fold ATC but that would be overkill) and flat good broadways. People can do the math and see that any pocket pair will be profitable to 4-bet against this guy. Not as profitable as AK but still profitable and that gives us room to both have a flatting and 4-betting range that villain can't exploit (well, he can. He would need to call wider so that we can't 4-bet pocket pairs in which case the EV of 4-betting AK goes way up and mission accomplished and we stop 4-betting small pocket pairs).
Point noted about the blockers, AE. I wasn't sure how to do the math correctly to take account of blockers, because, as you've said, we not only block part of his 5-betting range, but also we block some of his 3-betting range as well.
Regarding 4-bet/calling small PP vs a 5betting range of QQ+,AK; I don't see how we can call the ship at all here, according to Stove, 33 is 35% against a range of QQ+,AKs,AKo, so we definitely are not getting odds to call the shove after we 4bet. Unless, that is, we 4bet to a size such that the pot odds we are getting for calling the jam are 1.85-1 or better. Which would mean we had 4bet to around 30bbs, which is a pretty bad size for a 4bet imo. If we had instead 4bet to something around 22bb, we'd be getting just a bit over 1.5-1 odds to call his 5bet. And we'd need 39% equity, which 33 doesn't have, and AK... hmmn ... it's closer than I thought, it looks like AKo might
barely have enough equity to call the shove, with 38.8% vs QQ+,AKo,AKs. But anyway it is much closer to a call than 33 is. Nevertheless, 4-bet/calling 33 IS profitable vs that opponent compared with folding to his 3bet, due to his tendencies of folding to a 4bet way too often, yet 4-bet/folding 33 is more profitable still. So we can surely 4bet ATC vs this guy. Even in the other example I gave where the guy is shipping it in with 99+,AJs+,AJo+, 33 seems to not have quite as much equity as needed to call the ship - It has about 38% equity against that range. But 66 has enough equity to call the ship.
Regarding flatting AK, I think you are right that flatting AK can be correct in some circumstances. I realize we would rather play AK against an 11% range than a 2.6% range - by 4-betting it we only play huge pots when we're in bad shape, and otherwise win small pots; whereas by calling the 3bet we play medium-big pots where we have good equity and often dominate our opponent. Perhaps I didn't make my example sufficiently straightforward; I was positing a situation wherein we didn't know how our opponent reacted to 4bets, or what his postflop tendencies were, so I was trying to come up with a good "default" line with AK which would be ok either against a narrow 5-betting range, or a wider one, assuming that we know only his 3bet% in this spot. Which is why I made up the 2 "sub-examples" with the different jamming ranges for opponent. Also, I think flatting a 3bet with AK is more sensitive to opponent's postflop tendencies than flatting something like JJ or TT, due to the fact that we will have no-pair on the flop 2/3 of the time, yet will often still have the best hand. So against players whom we don't know much about their postflop game, I'm inclined to put more action in preflop than try to play post with AK.