Question regarding Fold vs BTN Open in Grinders Manual - Beginning Poker Questions

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Question regarding Fold vs BTN Open in Grinders Manual

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10-28-2020 , 05:23 AM

poker_bunny

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2020 Posts: 7

Quote:

Definition: Fold vs BTN Open refers to the % of the time the player folds when someone opens the BU. By looking at the stats of the SB and BB and then multiplying them together we can estimate how often our steal should work in average and then whether or not it's likely to be +EV.

From the context, we are on the BU, so "our" steal is the BU stealing.

Why are we only multiplying the stats of the SB and BB? For the steal to be successful, everyone else except us (the BU) should fold. So we should compare our required fold equity to the product of the Fold vs BTM Open of all opponents.

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10-28-2020 , 05:43 AM

tombos21

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2018 Posts: 2,048

It presumes that it's been folded to you on the BTN. What you said doesn't make any sense. You can't "steal" if someone else before you has already opened.

The more general form is to find the FE product of all players yet to act. In this way you can account for limps, straddles, opening from earlier positions, and other situations where there are more than just SB and BB ahead of you.

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10-28-2020 , 10:34 AM

madlex

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 17,446

Quote:

Originally Posted by poker_bunny

Why are we only multiplying the stats of the SB and BB? For the steal to be successful, everyone else except us (the BU) should fold. So we should compare our required fold equity to the product of the Fold vs BTM Open of all opponents.

We‘re talking about a standard poker game where UTG acts first and BB is the last player to act (for the first time) preflop.

In that game, the only way for BU to steal is if UTG to CO all folded and only SB/BB are left to act behind.

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10-28-2020 , 03:02 PM

statmanhal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,987

One should also note that multiplying the folding probabilities is probably a bit optimistic. That is, the product likely provides a result that is a bit high.

The chance the big blind folds will normally depend on what the small blind does; e.g., if the small blind doesn’t fold the BB probably is more likely to fold whereas if the small blind folds the BB is more likely to call IMO (which may be wrong!). The folding stats presumably do not consider the joint event where an assumption of independence is probably off. However, it may not be off enough to be very significant.

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