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Probe bet vs Donk bet Probe bet vs Donk bet

12-24-2018 , 11:41 AM
Hello everyone! I am a big fan of Dan Harrington's books and I found somekind of a contradiction in Harrington on holdem vol 2. and Harington on online cash games (in my opinion this is the best book for online poker up to 25nl).
So in his tournament book Dan advocates, when we are not the aggresor pf, and we miss the flop or catch something(mp,bp) it is ok to make so called probe bets OOP when the board is dry. But in his newer book for online play He calls those kinds of bets donk bets and according to him, those kinds of bets are highly unprofitable except when we are playing high level poker vs very good, tough players. I know that Harrington on Holdem is a tournament book and was written in 2005 (Harrington on online cash games is 2010).Do you think that probe bets are basically donk bets and should be avoided?
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12-24-2018 , 02:49 PM
Unless you are a particularly good player that can balance his ranges and/or knows how to exploit your opponent correctly, you'll lose money by making donkbets. Analysis of large samples of hand histories have shown that people that donkbet a lot lose money.
With any hand where you consider donking, you'll almost always have at least the same EV (but sometimes greater) if you check to the pre-flop raiser. This is mainly because check-raising allows you to put get more money into the pot than donking does, and you want more money in the pot when you expect to win the hand.

Making a probe bet on the turn if villain checks back the flop is an important part of strategy, however. Turn probes are very common and - to some degree - are necessary for winning. You can beat the game if you never donk the flop, though.
There are occasions where donking the flop is attractive, however. This Upswing article is quite a good primer on the subject: https://upswingpoker.com/donk-bet-lead-flop-strategy/
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12-24-2018 , 03:02 PM
Quote:
in my opinion this is the best book for online poker up to 25nl
The Grinders Manual >>>>>> any Harrington online cash book, ainec
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12-25-2018 , 05:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
Unless you are a particularly good player that can balance his ranges and/or knows how to exploit your opponent correctly, you'll lose money by making donkbets. Analysis of large samples of hand histories have shown that people that donkbet a lot lose money.
With any hand where you consider donking, you'll almost always have at least the same EV (but sometimes greater) if you check to the pre-flop raiser. This is mainly because check-raising allows you to put get more money into the pot than donking does, and you want more money in the pot when you expect to win the hand.

Making a probe bet on the turn if villain checks back the flop is an important part of strategy, however. Turn probes are very common and - to some degree - are necessary for winning. You can beat the game if you never donk the flop, though.
There are occasions where donking the flop is attractive, however. This Upswing article is quite a good primer on the subject: https://upswingpoker.com/donk-bet-lead-flop-strategy/
Thanks for replying! From your explanations I understand that any lead bet on the flop when I was not the aggressor pre is classified as donk bet not probe bet. I want to know your opinion about the following exapmle from Harrington's tournament book:
Middle of a MTT(200/400 ante 25 8handed), We are the BB(16600) and the villain(17600) is in CO(aggressive player)
we have KTo
fold to CO,who raises 800, folds to me and I call (pot:2000)
Flop:J 7 4 rainbow.
This is the fun part . Here Harrington says that this is a texbook scenario for probe/steal bet. His reasoning is that the flop missed us but probably missed our opp as well and if we dont bet now the pot will be taken away. He suggests 1000 bet here.Is that donk or probe? I think it is donk bet, but I would like to hear what do you think about the situation.
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12-25-2018 , 05:24 AM
donk bets are highly player dependant. donk with strong hands against aggressive players. do not donk with bluffs against calling stations, etc
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12-25-2018 , 12:09 PM
depends how big the pot is, aggression of villian, board texture etc etc
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12-25-2018 , 04:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by invet
I want to know your opinion about the following exapmle from Harrington's tournament book:
Middle of a MTT(200/400 ante 25 8handed), We are the BB(16600) and the villain(17600) is in CO(aggressive player)
we have KTo
fold to CO,who raises 800, folds to me and I call (pot:2000)
Flop:J 7 4 rainbow.
This is the fun part . Here Harrington says that this is a texbook scenario for probe/steal bet. His reasoning is that the flop missed us but probably missed our opp as well and if we dont bet now the pot will be taken away. He suggests 1000 bet here.Is that donk or probe? I think it is donk bet, but I would like to hear what do you think about the situation.
When the BB leads out on the flop after calling pre, it's a donkbet. It would be very weird to donk with KTo on J74r. That just seems like such a random hand to use. It can turn some equity, but it's not exactly a combo that would jump to mind if someone asked me "What hands might you donk with in this spot?". Most of the hands that are usually found in donking ranges, can also be played as check-raises or check-calls (e.g. 44, 98, 65s, Jx). KTo would mostly be a check-fold.
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12-26-2018 , 06:11 AM
I got your point and I agree. Obviously Harrington on hold'em is a little out of date regarding probe bets . The rest of the book is great though.
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03-05-2019 , 04:30 PM
hey, i just look it up in Harrington on Holdem Expert Strategy for Tournaments. Volume II The Endgame.

on page 20ff he describes what he means, with a "probe bet".
..."A probe bet is a cross between a bluff and an informational bet. Its a leadout bet of somewehre between 1/3 and 1/4 of the pot...."
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03-05-2019 , 07:12 PM
there are 2 questions asked itt, first is if "donk bet" means the same thing as "probe bet". Arty mentioned it, but it's not entirely clear, so let me reiterate: the answer to this is no, the way it's used today, "probe bet" means something different, namely lead turn vs missed cbet. The definition above is something else and is not consinsent with how the word is used today. The reason for that use is because that's what it means in Holdem Manager.

The other question is wether you should incorporate donkbets and probe bets into your strategy. The answer is, beginner should essentially never donkbet, but probe bets are obviously necessary to use.
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03-13-2019 , 01:08 AM
Standard definitions.

Donk bet. Happens on the flop when preflop caller leads into preflop aggressor.

Probe bet. Happens on the turn or OTR after the previous street checked through.

Donk bets are fishy. Don't do it. Good thing Harrington saw the light.
Probe bets are pro ****. Do do them. But balance with value and bluff.
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03-14-2019 , 08:57 AM
Great thread so far!! The 'Donk' or 'Probe' or 'Blocker' bets are very much a part of poker in 2019 and should/can be used in some pretty good spots. But you really need to have some Player reads when you do so ... plenty of live 1/2 Players who can't see past their cards and the Board regardless of what you do with your chips.

I love the OMC Donk bettors on K74 ... I'll say 'Hey, let me do the betting in my pots!' and fold, sometimes showing even top pair. So the next time they check and I'll check (pursed lips for sure). Then they come right back with a Donk and I'll raise them. Nothing better than a good tit for tat couple of orbits ...

Donk/Block bets are leading any street after an IP Player has bet/raised the previous street. Once a street checks through these terms can still be used but have less direct meaning.

Probe leads me down the 'I want to see where I'm at' type of thinking that can get us into a lot of trouble.

The book example was from a time when Players more easily gave up if they missed the Flop and didn't realize their positional/range advantage as the PF aggressor. GL
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