Hey guys,

Seems like I see a lot of stuff like this :

"On the river you bet $100 into a pot of $100, so your opponent must call $100 to win $200. Thus, your opponent is getting 2-to-1 pot odds and needs to win at least 33% of the time to break even.

This quick calculation reveals the optimal proportion of bluffs in your betting range on the river: 33% (one bluff for every two value bets). This frequency is optimal because it allows you to win the pot most often without the possibility of being countered."

My question is : how do you apply this in a live game? IE : how do you count or remember that in one particular situation the two last time you value bet so now its time to bluff. Doesnt seem realistic at all unless Im wrong?

Thoughts?

Best,

You shouldn't really apply this in games where it's best play very exploitatively, and because this model is a bit oversimplified.

But the answer is you construct a range for the spot, and then you just play your hands normally. If you value bet 5 times in a row or bluff 5 times in a row will come down to how the combos fall in that range. You don't count "ok, value bet, value bet, bluff...vbet, vbet, bluff."

Let's say you're value betting top pair, bluffing a few specific combos of missed draws, and checking the rest of your range. You construct the range so that you have 2x as many combos of top pair as the missed draws you want to bluff. Then, when you have top pair, you bet every time, and when you have the draw combos you want to bluff, you bluff them every time.

Done.

It is fixed more or less beforehand. But it is also good to figure if the opponent in that situation would ever fold a top pair. Not everyone can think that they will fold some of them and call with the other (half) of them or whatever.