Quote:
Originally Posted by solarglow
I'm curious if good players actually calculate EV off table when analysing previous sessions.
I used to precise EV calcs, but only so I got the general idea over which plays are profitable or not. It didn't take too long to learn which sort of spots were
very profitable or
very costly, and which are close (unfortunately most poker decisions are close, but as a beginner you just need to make the "obvious" folds and "obvious" calls to beat the fish). I no longer calculate precise EVs (except for answering forum questions for specific spots like calling a pre-flop shove with a specific hand vs a particular range), as all I care about is whether a play makes money or not. I don't need to know
how much money a play makes. I just need to know whether or not it makes money. If it's profitable ("+EV") I do it. If it's -EV (loses money), I don't.
To use a quick and extreme example that might help to explain your earlier questions too...
Imagine you're in a tourney with 1,500 chips and the blinds are 25/50. Suppose that instead of minraising to 100, you misclicked and made it 1000 with 76s for example. That huge raise size would be a mistake and you'd wish you hadn't made it and could take back the chips and try again (it was a misclick after all). It would be a -EV open (otherwise everyone would be opening to 2/3 of their stacks with 7-high). If villain then shoves on you (for 1500 total), you should "forget" about your earlier misclick and do a rough EV calc of the new situation. You only need to call another 500 into a final pot that will be over 3000. You don't need to know your precise equity or EV. You just need to know that based on pot odds alone, you only need to win 500/3000 = one sixth of the time to break even. Since even 72o will beat AA often enough to break even at that price, you'd know it was +EV to call off with 76s. To emphasise, you don't need to know
precisely how many chips you'll win/lose (i.e. the expected value) if you call with 76s vs aces (or villain's shoving range). You just need to know whether it's a good call or a losing one.
The same sort of rule applies for post-flop. You might start a hand with 1000 chips, but due to it being multiway there might be 4000 in the middle by the river, and villain might be going all in for 20% of the pot or less. It doesn't matter how the money got into the pot, or who put it there. You just have to work out whether your call will make money or not. With "sick pot odds", you should often call very light, because you don't have to win very often to make money.
Last edited by ArtyMcFly; 04-19-2018 at 10:52 AM.
Reason: typos