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Old 10-10-2018, 01:40 AM   #1
OZH
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Post Pot odds calculated per street?

Hi everyone!
This is my first post on this forum (though have been lurking here for a little while). I know there have been numerous posts about pot odds but I haven't been able to find concrete or more detailed information to my particular question. However if it's already been answered then I apologise in advance, feel free to direct me to the correct place.

I'm somewhat familiar with the basic concept of how to calculate pot odds, but am still new to poker in general.
My question in a nutshell: on the flop, are pot odds calculated just for the turn, or do we take the river into consideration as well in any way?
It seems logical to just consider the turn, as more action takes place before the river, but taking each street in such a vacuum would mean we basically never get the odds to call anything if our opponent ever bets more than 1/3 pot on the flop. I assume then that we would also need to take our opponents value bet to bluff ratio into account here, which would increase our odds technically, but how is this factored into the equation? Surely if we flop a flush draw for example, we shouldn't be playing the hand on the flop as if we only have an 18ish% chance to win the hand? I'd assume we'd be folding too much and calling/raising too infrequently if so, and thus not realise the full 36ish% equity we have in the hand.
Alternatively am I looking at this from a completely incorrect standpoint, and if so whats the correct/a better way to approach the situation?
Sorry for the probably-very-stupid question, but thanks in advance for anyone taking their time to respond, it's much appreciated!
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Old 10-10-2018, 03:20 AM   #2
sixfour
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Re: Pot odds calculated per street?

Pot odds are just the size of the pot in relation to the bet you are facing at any point in time - it doesn't matter what stage of the hand you are at.

How you interpret the pot odds is an entirely different question - how many more streets, if any, are you likely to face? How much more money, if any, is there left to play with? What is the opponent likely to do on a future street if you just call?

You can't just think with a flush draw "he's bet half pot on the flop we don't have 4:1 to hit fold", and you can't just think "he's bet half pot on flop but we do have the 2:1 needed to hit our flush on either future street call", it's a bit more subtle than that
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Old 10-10-2018, 05:27 AM   #3
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Re: Pot odds calculated per street?

Welcome, you can use the search feature here to try and pull up some other threads on this topic. And, yes, there are many.

Not sure your experience, but you are correct that 'first to bet' can throw a wrench in any particular hand's 'math' ... so now you need to start playing poker, not just cards. There are an abundance of factors to consider once you first calculate 'direct calling pot odds'.

1) What was the action PF, does it correlate with the Board?
2) Are we multi-way? So if others also call it makes my call 'look' better.
3) How many more chips might I win if I do make the call .. implied odds. You have to consider the shortest (or effective) stack. And, remember you have to have an opponent who will pay you off as well.

4) What is my opponents image? We might actually be ahead right now!! Do we have any over-cards, or backdoor trips/straights that we might hit as well.
5) What is my image? Can I steal this pot later with decent frequency?
6) Yes, consider what size bet you may typically have to call from this opponent on the Turn as well if you miss.

If poker was about only the math, then 'everyone' would want to be UTG, not B. Figure out your table and take advantage of the 'card' Players by playing poker. GL
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Old 10-10-2018, 05:29 AM   #4
PokerPlayingGamble
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Re: Pot odds calculated per street?

generally you are going street by street unless you are all in. so a flush draw is 5:1 against, not 2:1 against.
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Old 10-10-2018, 07:38 AM   #5
SpewingIsMyMove
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Re: Pot odds calculated per street?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble View Post
generally you are going street by street unless you are all in. so a flush draw is 5:1 against, not 2:1 against.
The odds on a flush draw being filled on the turn would be 4 to 1 (4 cards that miss to ever 1 card that hits), not 5 to 1.
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Old 10-10-2018, 01:08 PM   #6
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Re: Pot odds calculated per street?

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The odds on a flush draw being filled on the turn would be 4 to 1 (4 cards that miss to ever 1 card that hits), not 5 to 1.
You should only draw to the nuts, so you should not count the board pairing flush card. In which case it is 5:1, not 4.25:1
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Old 10-10-2018, 01:31 PM   #7
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Re: Pot odds calculated per street?

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You should only draw to the nuts, so you should not count the board pairing flush card. In which case it is 5:1, not 4.25:1
This isn't Omaha
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Old 10-10-2018, 10:10 PM   #8
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Re: Pot odds calculated per street?

Quote:
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You should only draw to the nuts, so you should not count the board pairing flush card. In which case it is 5:1, not 4.25:1
If you are drawing to nine outs, out of 45 unknown cards, the ration of negative outcome cards to positive outcome cards is 36 to 9, or 4 to 1. Your equity is 1 in 5, or 20%, but your odds are 4 to 1 against.
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Old 10-10-2018, 11:51 PM   #9
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Re: Pot odds calculated per street?

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If you are drawing to nine outs, out of 45 unknown cards, the ration of negative outcome cards to positive outcome cards is 36 to 9, or 4 to 1. Your equity is 1 in 5, or 20%, but your odds are 4 to 1 against.
47 unknown cards unless you are superusering, and as I already said, you can't count the board pairing flush card.
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Old 10-11-2018, 01:40 AM   #10
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Re: Pot odds calculated per street?

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47 unknown cards unless you are superusering, and as I already said, you can't count the board pairing flush card.
Of course you can, depending on action. A flush is still good most of the time on a paired board.

Thinking only about pot odds vs. chance to hit is too simplistic unless we're closing action. In the specific case of a flush draw on the flop, we have to consider how much of the pot share we'll win when we hit the flush, which should usually be >POT, how much we can re-coup when we miss, which will usually be >0, and board pairing cards certainly still matter, although we may have nearly as much pot share as when the board hadn't paired.
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Old 10-11-2018, 03:13 AM   #11
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Re: Pot odds calculated per street?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble View Post
You should only draw to the nuts, so you should not count the board pairing flush card. In which case it is 5:1, not 4.25:1
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour View Post
This isn't Omaha
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpewingIsMyMove View Post
If you are drawing to nine outs, out of 45 unknown cards, the ration of negative outcome cards to positive outcome cards is 36 to 9, or 4 to 1. Your equity is 1 in 5, or 20%, but your odds are 4 to 1 against.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble View Post
47 unknown cards unless you are superusering, and as I already said, you can't count the board pairing flush card.
So let me check your thought processes. We're playing a friendly neighbourhood game of 1/2 unlimited hold them, and you get a very pretty looking AKhh in late position and raise it up to $10. I'm the only caller in the big blind, so our pot is $21. Flop is a nice looking 9h7h4c, I check, you c-bet $12, I call, pot now $45. Turn is an irrelevant 2d and my drink arrives, as I go to tip the cocktail waitress I accidentally knock my huge red throbbing stack of $5 chips and accidentally knock one out over the line - as I don't want a scream up I just say it's a bet.

You're now getting 10-1 pot odds. Is your thinking now "Well, I have nine flush outs, but the 4 and the 2 could make him anything! It could even be a boat! And as for the J, T, 8, 6 and 5, well that could make him a straight flush! That leaves what, the Q and the 3? That's just two nut outs! Out of 40+ cards! I'm not getting 20-1, I'd better fold"?
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Old 10-11-2018, 07:20 AM   #12
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Re: Pot odds calculated per street?

Quote:
Thinking only about pot odds vs. chance to hit is too simplistic unless we're closing action.
Not closing the action makes it worse for you because someone can raise, effectively reducing your odds.
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Old 10-11-2018, 07:21 AM   #13
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Re: Pot odds calculated per street?

Quote:
You're now getting 10-1 pot odds. Is your thinking now "Well, I have nine flush outs, but the 4 and the 2 could make him anything! It could even be a boat! And as for the J, T, 8, 6 and 5, well that could make him a straight flush! That leaves what, the Q and the 3? That's just two nut outs! Out of 40+ cards! I'm not getting 20-1, I'd better fold"?
Don't be hysterical, we can simply discount the middling hearts that put a possible straight flush on the board to .8 of an out each.
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Old 10-11-2018, 01:00 PM   #14
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Re: Pot odds calculated per street?

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Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble View Post
Don't be hysterical, we can simply discount the middling hearts that put a possible straight flush on the board to .8 of an out each.
I think you're getting closer to his point.
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Old 10-11-2018, 02:20 PM   #15
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Re: Pot odds calculated per street?

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Don't be hysterical, we can simply discount the middling hearts that put a possible straight flush on the board to .8 of an out each.
So how are you working out that I have the goods 20% of the time when a "scare card" comes? Or are you just plucking numbers out of thin air?
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Old 10-11-2018, 06:24 PM   #16
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Re: Pot odds calculated per street?

Quote:
So how are you working out that I have the goods 20% of the time when a "scare card" comes?
That is not how discounting outs works.
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Old 10-11-2018, 06:48 PM   #17
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Re: Pot odds calculated per street?

Well then please elaborate
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Old 10-11-2018, 08:34 PM   #18
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Re: Pot odds calculated per street?

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Well then please elaborate
I'd rather just put you on ignore.
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Old 10-11-2018, 09:36 PM   #19
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Re: Pot odds calculated per street?

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I'd rather just put you on ignore.
The guy is trying to help you, and you want to ignore him for it?

Why do you discount nut flush outs that are putting a straight flush on the board (.8 is absurdly low, btw) but you don't acknowledge that you could be doing the same thing on board pairing flush cards? Our hand value does not drop to zero when we hit our flush on a paired board.

Using outs this way is overly simplistic anyway. If you look only at outs it gives the impression that we're pretty much never getting odds to call. For example, continuing against a PSB on the flop with the NFD is almost unilaterally correct even though we aren't getting direct one street pot odds.
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Old 10-12-2018, 10:36 AM   #20
OZH
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Re: Pot odds calculated per street?

Thanks everyone for the replies, it seems then, if I understood correctly, we need to take all variables into consideration when making a decision and direct pot odds are just a factor which should influence our action. We can still make calls which we don't have the odds for at the moment if we think that we might be ahead of their range or if we will get an opportunity to successfully bluff on a later street.
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Old 10-12-2018, 10:47 PM   #21
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Re: Pot odds calculated per street?

Ozh if you flop a naked flush draw you are 2-1 on the flop and 4-1 on the turn but if you’re heads up then things change a bit because you’ll approximately get a free turn card about half the time so this means in the flop you aren’t really 2-1 you’re more likely between 2-1 and 4-1 so call it 3-1. The turn remains the same at 4-1.
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