Quote:
Originally Posted by 23Suited
Not sure if this is the correct spot to ask this but I’m doing some math incorrectly I think so I’m just asking for a little help... you can go to almost any website that talks about post flop odds for specific hands and find out something like the odds to hit a pair or better post flop with something like AK (~32%) and these websites will show you how to do this math... but this is extremely generic... what I can’t seem to find anywhere is how to do this same type of math while adding a factor of any kind, even a simple one... Let’s say I want to know how to do the math, same question, but I change one card (AQ and KQ), and I want to have not just a pair post flop but top pair or better (meaning the times with AQ where I flop a Q but a K also flops, or KQ where I flop a K or Q but an A also flops don’t count in the end value because I don’t have top pair)... I’m just not finding any websites that show how to do the math to minus events correctly from a specific range so even though ive learned how to calculate basic odds I can’t seem to always apply them to figure out the odds of a specific event... A link to somewhere they talk about this in greater detail would be amazing but just showing how the math would be done for the above scenarios should allow me to infer ways to answer deeper questions that have been bothering me on my own... Thanks in advance for any help you can provide!
Do you mean, for example, you have KQ and you are afraid to be beat by AK when the flop pairs your Q?
If yes, the simple thing to do is recognize the outs that a better hand has, which is 3 (A,A,A provided the board didn’t hit 10,J,Q, but let’s keep it simple by assuming you know the better starting hand only has 3 outs to beat you). If you know how many outs they have to beat you then you can use the formulas you know to find out their odds of drawing to win (roughly 14% for the turn, and 7% on the river).
In the above example if the flop did hit something stupid like 6,10,Q, then they have more outs (6) for a 26% on the turn and 13% chance on the river. Knowing this information and having watched your opponent you can bet appropriately to get the maximum value for your hand.
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