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sit and go opening ranges sit and go opening ranges

12-02-2017 , 07:42 PM
hello, is there a formula/software to calculate the preflop range/equity you need to make a raise? my question is probally not the easyest but anyone that still has math probally knows how to do this, i have not used math in 8+ years however... I forgot everything I ever learned!

problem: 50 big blind effective stacks ( 6-max )
preflop equity needed to raise 2bb to steal 1.5bb with x amount of people behind.

so we risk 4% of our stack to end up with 103% if they fold (2/(1.5+2)) = 57% of the time.
sit and go opening ranges Quote
12-03-2017 , 08:08 PM
When you stay “steal”, I assume you’re implying you win with a so-so hand by having players behind fold. From a strictly math perspective, the EV equation is then

EV = Pr(all x players fold)*Pot – (At least 1 player calls)*Bet,

which is based on the assumption you lose your bet if there is a call.
(card equity =0)


Let fe= Pr(a player folds)

Then, assuming independence, the probability x players fold to your overbet is fe^x. Therefore with Pot = 1.5 and Bet = 2,

EV = fe^x *1.5 – (1-fe^x)* 2

Setting EV to >=0,

fe^x >= 2/3.5 = 0.571

x=1: fe >= 0.571
x=2: fe >= 0.756
x=3: fe >= 0.830

In general, fe >= [Bet/(1.5+Bet)]^(1/x)

Clearly you need high fold probability to make the over-bet profitable, especially for x>1. An over-bet usually increases the likelihood of a player folding, but does it increase it enough to meet the +EV requirement? This then becomes a question of whether the larger pot with multiple opponent calls compensates for the increased requirement in fold equity and/or decreased card equity. Another issue is that the assumption of fold independence may not be realistic.

Including card equity in the analysis can get quite complex since it will vary with the number of players calling and without an all-in bet, the decision tree with future betting poses a formidable analytic challenge.

Last edited by statmanhal; 12-03-2017 at 08:26 PM.
sit and go opening ranges Quote

      
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