Guys, poker is always being promoted as a game of thrill, talent and a bit of luck. Most of the time, all the industry will try to convince you that it is not about luck but talent...

In my experience, after studying tons of materials and watching all pros, I came to the conclusion that POKER IS A VERY DANGEROUS FORM OF GAMBLING FOR OCCASIONAL PLAYERS...

Even if you do everything right in poker, your chance of winning would increase only by 5-10% which is the ROI most professionals are chasing after playing millions of hands, sitting all day and securing a future severe spinal problem and very sedentary life...

These pros will hope to get 10-15% ROI in the long term... Unless, they run bad... I have seen many pros praying to run twice even with AA against lower pair in a hand with all-in pre-flop at a cash game...

For people like us, with regular jobs, playing a few times a week/month in tournaments or cash games most of us will hardly make profit... Only some of us will get lucky and win at a period, but then will lose again...

Most of the time, you will see that the math in poker never works... You will not lose only 2 out of 10 times with AA versus 22 ... Some of us will lose 5 times, some of us will lose no time, and some of us will lose 2 times like math suggests. So, even in the probability, there will be a big element of chance... So, it is simply GAMBLING...

Even in roulette, you will have better chance of winning... 48.6% chance of winning in roulette... But, in a usual poker tournament, only 10% cashes, and if you are really good, it will go up to 15-20% chance...

The cruel fact about poker is that simple! There is no fairness in poker, cards will hardly respect your mathematical calculations... You will be pissed most of the time (90%) even if you do everything right...

So, stop wasting your money and keep this game as a fun time between friends.. Really, don't take it seriously and get addicted by hoping that you are learning and one day you will win! Only 1 in 10 will win one day, so it is just a kind of lottery...

Thank you for your thoughts on this, fatihgg.

To put your ideas into the correct context, please give us a little of your own poker history. What games do you play the most? Do you play online, live or both? How many hands have you played online...in which games?

Thanks.

I have a full time job and play poker as a hobby, and am a long term winner. Your problem is that you are bad at poker.

On the troll again.
The second you said you have a better chance at roulette you lost ALL credability.
I agree with WereBeer. Not Only are you probably bad at poker I will take it 1 step further.
You are probably in the bottom 20% of players.

Is it more dangerous than Russian Roulette? I played that six times and only died once.

These are the quality threads I occasionally click on this sub forum for. Thank you

- Sure, keep calling players like me as "bad players", sure, rather than really trying to understand. Do you know how many books I read, how many videos I watched? Do you know that I have degree in math? I did everything right, but still came to the conclusion that this is a real gambling which I hate...

I even kind of developed some skill to know the opponents' cards pre-flop, even making amazing correct folds... But, how can I read dealer's deck!? If dealer decides to give him a river-set against my AA, nothing can be done. This kind of scenario happens to me and most players all the time!

You do everything perfect according to poker theories, strategies, but always end up losing all your profits/capital/chips with set over set, flush over flush, higher/lower straight... Most people lose everything in a tourney or cash, with NUTS against better NUTS!

I believe, you are in that lucky group of people who hasn't had enough NUTS vs. better NUTS losses to start complaining like most of us! Don't tell me, you are psychic to avoid such bad beats!

But believe me, you will lose all your profits with such beats one day!

In fact, the simple formula of a winning poker player is: Play well BUT DON'T have many bad beats like most of us do!

It is that simple! And obviously, then just tell others how good you are and how bad others are as you 2 lucky bastarts doing now!

Note: Most profitable poker players make money online using extensive assistance from sophisticated software and tracking tools which most of us don't use... They are able to know every player... This is a huge cheating in my opinion and somehow Pstars or others still allow this! Probably, you guys are one of those players and tell me you know how to play well! Go and play a few times without using this software or face to face live with people in casino, and then I will listen to you!

Why should we "believe" you? Because:

and as an FYI.....it is NOT cheating if the site allows the use of these tracking tools and other programs. And it may be false when you say that "most of us don't use" this software.

You have MANY options to play on sites that do not allow these programs. Therefore you should not use this line of reason when discussing your "Pokering Is Dangerous" idea.

So I reread this part of your second post for us. I had tried to stay even keeled before but I must call your attention to something that you may not be aware.

You may not be a bad player. You could easily be an "average" player, meaning half the players are better than yourself, half worse. And by being average, please try to understand this:

average = losing player.

Most players lose at poker. Fairly certain this is common knowledge. What keeps players coming back for more is....well, some people win. And people have a natural tendency to believe that they could turn into the next super star.

Having knowledge is not the same as being able to use the knowledge. Poker is a gambling game and some people are NATURALLY and/or SOCIALLY conditioned to avoid gambling. Fight or flight.

I am a fiscal conservative, have been all my life. I have been successful in my business career and in life. And I do not like to gamble....yet I play poker. Pretty big contradiction, wouldn't you say? But I'm not really that good at winning. I now play limit HE after 2M+ hands of NL. And I STILL have problems raising AK unless I am in CO or on the button. It is not optimal for my winrate AND I KNOW IT....yet I still can't pull the trigger. So here, I have the knowledge yet refuse to used it. Any chance you recognize this pattern in yourself?

Here is what goes on in the mind of most losing poker players. My intelligence is superior therefore when i lose some thing else is at play. Its not my fault. My ego is to big to admitt that my play skills are average at best. Every time i fail and anything i just cant own it. PS You claim to have a math degree yet you demonstrate you dont understand basic probability. If you made the safestest bet in roulette you win chance is 45 not 48 %

How does it feel to be that special and still be losing at poker? I'm pretty much a scrub at poker, no maths degree, never watched a poker video...and I'm a winner over 2 million hands.

So it's what I said, you are just bad at poker and rather than face up to the fact that you are bad and it's 100% your fault, you'd rather cry about it and say it's poker's fault. OK, but you're fooling no-one but yourself.

OP, one thing that you mentioned is that winning players are those that haven't suffered bad beats. The truth is that winning players suffer the worst bad beats. Firstly, they get it in with the best hand more often. Secondly, they play the highest volume. Getting it in good lots of times is the recipe for getting bad beats.

In the past week I've lost with JJ Vs 33 and AA Vs A2s to come 5th and 3rd in 180 man sit & gos. The payout structure in those tournaments meant those were particularly expensive beats. Was I mad and frustrated? Damn right I was. Will I play them again? Damn right I will. I understand that in the short term variance is huge especially in multi table sit and his but in the long run the best players will prevail.

Having a good mental game is probably the most important skill in poker. Yours sounds like it's completely in tatters. I've no idea what games you play but you mention cash so I'd drop down to a stake that you can beat and build up your confidence and bankroll from there. If you can't beat 2nl....well then your problems are strategic but there are sub-forums for that. Best of luck.


OP sounds Russian from the way he's constructing his sentences. There is only one zero on roulette wheels outside of the USA.

Probably best not to use this sentence in the presence of one of your former math professors.

The OP is correct in a number of his assertions.

The ROI of poker is low. In all but the weakest games, a winning player's edge is small. That's why you see players chase whales and fish. Online, the edges are even smaller.

Only in the long term can winners be determined. Lots of hands need to be played to "guarantee" a profit consistently.

Recreational players rarely can win. The more practice you have in poker, the less mistakes your make over time. If you are only playing a couple of times a month, you're going to make more mistakes. It isn't a matter of reading something. You have recognize that situation has come during a game while you have seconds to make a decision and make the right one. It was easier to explain back when limit poker was big and the best winrate was 1 bet per hour live. That means if you made one bad call or failed to make good extra bet in an hour, you weren't a winning player. That's the level of perfection you need.

Even the roulette example isn't bad. For most poker players, they probably would be better off playing that instead of poker.

The only assertion I disagree with is that 1 out of 10 people will be winners long term. I don't think it is even that high. Even those players that win at one level, often more up where they turn into losers at the next level. Most players don't have a deep enough bankroll for the level of play they operate, which means they get consumed by the risk of ruin.

What the OP misses though is that if you are going to gamble, poker is one of the extremely few ways in a casino where you have any chance of winning in the long term. Everything else with the exception of the rare 100%+ video poker machine or card counting in blackjack is guaranteed to cost you money in the long term.

Even the roulette example isn't bad. For most poker players, they probably would be better off playing that instead of poker.

Would not agree. I have played hundreds of 1/2 nl cash games to a virtual stalemate.
I could not imagine being that close to even on a roulette wheel after 2000 hours of play.
The house edge will just eat you alive.
Lets be real here. When was the last time you heard a losing poker player just own it ?
Here is something that is counter intuative.
The guys that win the most hands are Not the winning players. The reason is they contest to many hands. The percent of contested hands won will tell you far more then HOW Many hands you won.

[QUOTE

Note: Most profitable poker players make money online using extensive assistance from sophisticated software and tracking tools which most of us don't use... They are able to know every player... This is a huge cheating in my opinion and somehow Pstars or others still allow this! Probably, you guys are one of those players and tell me you know how to play well! Go and play a few times without using this software or face to face live with people in casino, and then I will listen to you![/QUOTE]

I've just had a weird experience. Sat playing 2$ sat into the sunday storm. I have 18,400 chips down to last 50 odd (20 qualify). Someone called Japastyle (i think). Is chip leader on the table with 24k + chips. Suddenly goes all in with J7 someone calls, he takes them out. Next hand I get AK. he goes in with 18000 i call. Leaves me 400 chips flop comes something like 4 Q 7, i go in with my 400 he waits ages and calls, he's got 6 3 o/s! Next card a 2 last card, you guessed it, a 3 how do you explain this?

You must admit things like this raise concerns. Nothing to do with being good / bad player
I had done everything right to that stage
It's as if there is a bot or something there to just get rid of players regardless.

I pretty much agree with everything Venice said a couple of posts up.

OP was mostly right when he said...
...except tourney players will usually lose money in about 85% of sessions (but get big wins occasionally to make up for the downswings), and cash game regs will win in about 55% of sessions (depending on duration and skill edge). Edges are small, but poker is still profitable for some people.
The worst poker players would, however, have literally more chance of making money playing slots, roulette or blackjack, since the house edge in those games is small.

HAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAA BANGARANG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

OP IS PWNED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Why?

OK Chris, I have a small bit of homework for you.

Open up Equilab or PokerStove or any of the other equity calc programs you use for study. Type in the hands and the flop. What is your equity on the flop?

If he had called off his stack with 63o then that'd have been weird. He didn't though. He put you effectively all in probably assuming you'd fold. On the flop he's getting like a million to 1 to call your 400 bet given the pot size so it's a profitable call for him with any two cards. He probably waited ages while he realised that he had priced himself him in with what he probably assumed to be a worthless hand on the flop. He would have been making an error had he actually folded there give all the money already gone in there.

the thing is many understand math but do not know how to use it properly to arrive at the correct decision.

There were three 3s left with 45 cards left in the deck and two chances to get one. One of those 3s came out on the river. I hope this helps.

had four 5s as outs as well.