Quote:
Originally Posted by SpinMeRightRound
The real reason poker is a dangerous form of gambling is because it is not mathematically possible to determine your edge. So you don't have a proper idea of whether you're running bad or playing bad. You mostly have to use your own intuition to determine whether you have or don't have an edge.
I would say that this is partly true.
You can never determine your exact mathematical edge against another player, but you can often get a pretty good idea, sometimes with technology and sometimes without.
Using technology: The first thing that Katie Dozier, aka Hot Jenny, looks for are VPIP and PFR numbers no more than 5 digits apart. When she sees a 16/12 she assumes that she's playing against a pro until she has evidence to the contrary.
No technology: There is an online tournament that I play almost every day and I make it to the final table more than half of the time. When I do make it to the final table, there is another player who is there with me about half of those times.
I don't need technology to know that I probably have little to no edge against this player. In fact, without any communication, we've figured that out about each other, and yes, we respect each other's raises. When the two of us are heads up in a hand it feels like my evil twin is trying to take my money. Mostly we just leave each other alone and pick on the weaker players.
If you are a good player and manage your bankroll well, poker is not a dangerous game. Multiple good decisions over a large sample size make you a winner.
I looked up my evil twin. It looks like we both play about 3 tournaments a day, almost every day. Let's say that over the course of a year we both play 1,000 MTTs. I would be very surprised if either of us lost money in 2018.
Last edited by Poker Clif; 04-01-2018 at 04:52 PM.
Reason: Changed "2017" to "2018"