Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Poker: most dangerous form of gambling! Poker: most dangerous form of gambling!

12-31-2017 , 09:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brussels Sprout
If he had called off his stack with 63o then that'd have been weird. He didn't though. He put you effectively all in probably assuming you'd fold. On the flop he's getting like a million to 1 to call your 400 bet given the pot size so it's a profitable call for him with any two cards. He probably waited ages while he realised that he had priced himself him in with what he probably assumed to be a worthless hand on the flop. He would have been making an error had he actually folded there give all the money already gone in there.
Why did he originally go in with 18000 chips on 6 3 though? He was first to play, I had AK obviously I just called the 18k (dont know why I just didnt go all in). Left me with 400 chips. Its the initial bet of over 3/4 of his stack with 6 3 os I dont get.
Poker: most dangerous form of gambling! Quote
12-31-2017 , 09:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Spew
Why?

OK Chris, I have a small bit of homework for you.

Open up Equilab or PokerStove or any of the other equity calc programs you use for study. Type in the hands and the flop. What is your equity on the flop?
Thanks for your reply King Spew, but I'm a relatively new player. I haven't really mastered the equity side yet. Still learning. I'm also unsure what Equilab or PokerStove do.
Poker: most dangerous form of gambling! Quote
01-02-2018 , 06:51 PM
They tell you your equity, which is your current share of the pot.

If there are N players in the hand including you, then Equity = P(win) + P(two-way tie)/2 + ... + P(n-way tie)/N
Poker: most dangerous form of gambling! Quote
03-31-2018 , 03:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fatihgg
- Sure, keep calling players like me as "bad players", sure, rather than really trying to understand. Do you know how many books I read, how many videos I watched? Do you know that I have degree in math? I did everything right, but still came to the conclusion that this is a real gambling which I hate...

I even kind of developed some skill to know the opponents' cards pre-flop, even making amazing correct folds... But, how can I read dealer's deck!? If dealer decides to give him a river-set against my AA, nothing can be done. This kind of scenario happens to me and most players all the time!

You do everything perfect according to poker theories, strategies, but always end up losing all your profits/capital/chips with set over set, flush over flush, higher/lower straight... Most people lose everything in a tourney or cash, with NUTS against better NUTS!

I believe, you are in that lucky group of people who hasn't had enough NUTS vs. better NUTS losses to start complaining like most of us! Don't tell me, you are psychic to avoid such bad beats!

But believe me, you will lose all your profits with such beats one day!

In fact, the simple formula of a winning poker player is: Play well BUT DON'T have many bad beats like most of us do!

It is that simple! And obviously, then just tell others how good you are and how bad others are as you 2 lucky bastarts doing now!

Note: Most profitable poker players make money online using extensive assistance from sophisticated software and tracking tools which most of us don't use... They are able to know every player... This is a huge cheating in my opinion and somehow Pstars or others still allow this! Probably, you guys are one of those players and tell me you know how to play well! Go and play a few times without using this software or face to face live with people in casino, and then I will listen to you!
I look at this an entirely different way, and it applies to any competition, not just poker. I can boil it down to one sentence:

In any competition, especially when money is involved, serious players will do all they can to get an edge.

Getting a chair in a major orchestra is as difficult as making it into the NFL. I know of an oboe player who had an oboe custom built to fit the size of her hands.

My cousin got a full-ride scholarship to college when she won 5 high school state track championships (two mile run her senior year and cross-county all four years.) Her edge was that she got free coaching from her father, who three times finished in the top 50 of the Boston Marathon.

Yes, people buy things, they get coaches and they use technology to get an edge. All competitors do that, whether it's poker or sports or the National Spelling Bee. I have done that as a runner (one marathon and a lot of shorter races.) I got private music lessons that helped get me into an army band, where I played and sang for 23 years. I use technology (an online coaching site and Holdem Manager 2) for poker as well.

I see no reason to call it cheating because it's poker, when we would never say that about football or a spelling bee. I play a lot, I study 10 hours a week, and I will continue to do everything that I can to get an edge at the table.
Poker: most dangerous form of gambling! Quote
03-31-2018 , 10:19 PM
The real reason poker is a dangerous form of gambling is because it is not mathematically possible to determine your edge. So you don't have a proper idea of whether you're running bad or playing bad. You mostly have to use your own intuition to determine whether you have or don't have an edge.
Poker: most dangerous form of gambling! Quote
04-01-2018 , 01:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpinMeRightRound
The real reason poker is a dangerous form of gambling is because it is not mathematically possible to determine your edge. So you don't have a proper idea of whether you're running bad or playing bad. You mostly have to use your own intuition to determine whether you have or don't have an edge.
*Unless you get PT4
Poker: most dangerous form of gambling! Quote
04-01-2018 , 04:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpinMeRightRound
The real reason poker is a dangerous form of gambling is because it is not mathematically possible to determine your edge. So you don't have a proper idea of whether you're running bad or playing bad. You mostly have to use your own intuition to determine whether you have or don't have an edge.
I would say that this is partly true.

You can never determine your exact mathematical edge against another player, but you can often get a pretty good idea, sometimes with technology and sometimes without.

Using technology: The first thing that Katie Dozier, aka Hot Jenny, looks for are VPIP and PFR numbers no more than 5 digits apart. When she sees a 16/12 she assumes that she's playing against a pro until she has evidence to the contrary.

No technology: There is an online tournament that I play almost every day and I make it to the final table more than half of the time. When I do make it to the final table, there is another player who is there with me about half of those times.

I don't need technology to know that I probably have little to no edge against this player. In fact, without any communication, we've figured that out about each other, and yes, we respect each other's raises. When the two of us are heads up in a hand it feels like my evil twin is trying to take my money. Mostly we just leave each other alone and pick on the weaker players.

If you are a good player and manage your bankroll well, poker is not a dangerous game. Multiple good decisions over a large sample size make you a winner.

I looked up my evil twin. It looks like we both play about 3 tournaments a day, almost every day. Let's say that over the course of a year we both play 1,000 MTTs. I would be very surprised if either of us lost money in 2018.

Last edited by Poker Clif; 04-01-2018 at 04:52 PM. Reason: Changed "2017" to "2018"
Poker: most dangerous form of gambling! Quote
04-01-2018 , 10:50 PM
Even in roulette, you will have better chance of winning... 48.6% chance of winning in roulette

Well YES IF you are significantly worse then other poker players you would probably have a better chance at a game of pure luck.
IF you were totally knew to poker and played a 100 games vs the best pros in poker your chances of showing a profit in those 100 games would probably be well below 5%
Poker: most dangerous form of gambling! Quote
04-02-2018 , 07:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fatihgg
Guys, poker is always being promoted as a game of thrill, talent and a bit of luck. Most of the time, all the industry will try to convince you that it is not about luck but talent...

In my experience, after studying tons of materials and watching all pros, I came to the conclusion that POKER IS A VERY DANGEROUS FORM OF GAMBLING FOR OCCASIONAL PLAYERS...
You could argue this for a great many sports. Think about the years and years of money and training required in order to be able to competitively ice skate, play golf, tennis, etc- and you may never even become a top player. Talk about a gamble...

Quote:
Even if you do everything right in poker, your chance of winning would increase only by 5-10% which is the ROI most professionals are chasing after playing millions of hands, sitting all day and securing a future severe spinal problem and very sedentary life...
Again I point to any other sport, where these guys develop all sorts of physical maladies while pursuing an occupation which only the elitist of the elite will succeed.

Quote:
These pros will hope to get 10-15% ROI in the long term... Unless, they run bad... I have seen many pros praying to run twice even with AA against lower pair in a hand with all-in pre-flop at a cash game...
Variance hits everyone the same in the long run.

Quote:
For people like us, with regular jobs, playing a few times a week/month in tournaments or cash games most of us will hardly make profit... Only some of us will get lucky and win at a period, but then will lose again...
Then why play?

Quote:
Most of the time, you will see that the math in poker never works... You will not lose only 2 out of 10 times with AA versus 22 ... Some of us will lose 5 times, some of us will lose no time, and some of us will lose 2 times like math suggests. So, even in the probability, there will be a big element of chance... So, it is simply GAMBLING...
I could turn any life event into a gambling scenario. I got in the car, drove to work, some guy rear ended me. The chances were against that happening, but it happened. I GAMBLED by going to work and it bit me in the ass.

Frankly, it's a stupid way of looking at it. It's a cynic's way of abusing confirmation bias to excuse away their poor results. It's an argument which can't be defeated because it's true at its core- but which is fallacious because it ignores the reason of why you were driving in the first place- to get to work.

Quote:
Even in roulette, you will have better chance of winning... 48.6% chance of winning in roulette... But, in a usual poker tournament, only 10% cashes, and if you are really good, it will go up to 15-20% chance...

The cruel fact about poker is that simple! There is no fairness in poker, cards will hardly respect your mathematical calculations... You will be pissed most of the time (90%) even if you do everything right...

So, stop wasting your money and keep this game as a fun time between friends.. Really, don't take it seriously and get addicted by hoping that you are learning and one day you will win! Only 1 in 10 will win one day, so it is just a kind of lottery...
In roulette you're playing against the house with a fixed edge against you in the game. In poker if you bring any sort of knowledge to the game against the general breed of mouthbreathers sitting at the 1/2 games, you have a much larger edge than the roulette wheel you gave as an example. So yes, the two are very different and one is worth playing and maybe the other isn't. Irony, eh?

Last edited by TheGull; 04-02-2018 at 07:40 PM.
Poker: most dangerous form of gambling! Quote
04-02-2018 , 08:17 PM
@thegull I think its pretty safe to say that the op would consider the greatest chess players in the world nothing more than lucky guys.
He has also demonstrated an utter misunderstanding of how the math of poker is within a standard deviation given a large enough sample size.
Last but not least NOT everyone who plays poker seeks to earn a living at it.
For some its leisure time, for others its a hobby (and an inexpensive hobby for the better players) for others its a side job and yet for others its a profession.
Its NOT uncommon for people to aspire to be Pros and then not own it when they cant make the cut.
SO FEW PEOPLE OWN it. They cant accept just Not being that good. Its Never their fault its all luck etc etc etc = Text book defintion of a loser. There is Nothing worse then a guy who buys his own BS or who is to ignorant to understand the truth.
Poker: most dangerous form of gambling! Quote

      
m