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05-25-2018 , 07:34 AM
PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4:

CO: 131.8 BB (VPIP: 35.48, PFR: 29.03, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 31)
BTN: 136.8 BB (VPIP: 22.32, PFR: 16.22, 3Bet Preflop: 6.12, Hands: 115)
Hero (SB): 92.2 BB (VPIP: 26.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 7.00, Hands: 31)
BB: 46.4 BB (VPIP: 37.93, PFR: 20.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 30)
UTG: 103.2 BB (VPIP: 9.68, PFR: 9.68, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)
HJ: 132.7 BB (VPIP: 41.94, PFR: 29.03, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 31)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB)
Hero has Jc Qc

fold, fold, fold,
BTN raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB,
fold, BTN raises to 22.5 BB, Hero calls 12.5 BB

Flop : (46 BB, 2 players) 5c Ac 7h
Hero checks, BTN bets 16 BB, Hero calls 16 BB

Turn : (78 BB, 2 players) 8h
Hero checks, BTN bets 98.3 BB and is all-in,

Hero?
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05-25-2018 , 08:17 AM
Hero (SB): 92.2 BB (VPIP: 26.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 7.00, Hands: 31)

It's not a very big sample but if these stats don't converge to something where VPIP/PFR are much more close then this is a big leak.
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05-25-2018 , 11:51 AM
Sim, you asking a math question.

You have to call 53.2BB to win how much?

What are your odds to hit a club on the river? (I assume you have no other outs). Don't forget that the 7or 8 of clubs may only be partial outs.)

Compare your two answers.
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05-25-2018 , 09:46 PM
We should just flat pre.

We should cbet flop and barrel turn. When we cbet, we have two ways to win - villain folds or we hit our flush on turn/river. When you c/c, you can only win when you hit your flush + it's hard for you to get paid because you're OOP.

As played, c/f turn.
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05-26-2018 , 12:34 AM
The 3bet is fine/standard, but calling is also viable. Fold to the 4-bet. You won't realise your equity well with this hand, playing OOP without the strongest range or the initiative, and with these stack depths. Villain is going to have AA/KK so often, so you're in a terrible shape.

As played, fold the turn. You don't have the right odds to call a jam on the turn. You have queen high. (FWIW, a pot-sized bet requires you to have 33.33% equity to break even. You've got less than a PSB behind, so you don't need as much as 33% equity, but you've only got 9 flush outs, which means you have about a 20% chance of binking it, and if villain has top set, the 7c and 8c are also dead outs).
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05-26-2018 , 12:46 AM
I fold to the 4bet pre.

My number of hands played has been way down over the past year or so and I would not say that I have kept up with certain things at all; and I know people are calling 4bets a lot more now .. but I don't get it; calling the 4bet looks bad to me.

Turn is just a pure math problem (EDIT: It is not; sorry ... obviously estimating the opponent's range is still the biggest variable). The bet is 53.7 big blinds into a pot of 78 big blinds (I think; not 100% sure that is right). Assuming that is correct, then hero is getting about 2.45 to 1. Hero needs slightly less than 40% equity to call. Get an equity calculator, put in the flop and your cards and put in all cards you think your opponent may have and click the calculate or whatever button and see how much equity you have.
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05-26-2018 , 04:00 AM
I misread the preflop action, sorry. I thought villain just called your 3b.

So yeah, we should just fold to 4b like others have said.

And still c/f turn.
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05-26-2018 , 10:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lego05
The bet is 53.7 big blinds into a pot of 78 big blinds (I think; not 100% sure that is right). Assuming that is correct, then hero is getting about 2.45 to 1. Hero needs slightly less than 40% equity to call.
I've made similar maths mistakes to ^that^ a million times. Obviously you know how to solve the situation, and just made a mistake this time, but OP might not spot your error.
Looking at it now, it is indeed 53.7bb into a pot that will be 78+53.7+53.7 = 185.4bb if he calls. That requires equity of 53.7/185.4 to break even. So approximately 29% equity is required. I think hero actually has nearer 17% against typical ranges.

FWIW, people have started calling 3-bets and 4-bets a lot more because the pot odds are often so good that (for hands that flop well, or are already beating some Ax bluffs) it's more profitable than folding. That said, in the micros, a 4-bet range will be heavily weighted towards QQ+/AQ+, so sticking around with a dominated queen high is suicidal. You'd actually have more equity with 65s. (I'd recommend folding that too though, in this spot. Unless villain has shown himself to be very aggro, just give 4-bets maximum credit imo, and even fold TT/99 in spots like this. It's probably OK to flat AQs and JJ, but even those are pretty dodgy).
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05-26-2018 , 02:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
I've made similar maths mistakes to ^that^ a million times. Obviously you know how to solve the situation, and just made a mistake this time, but OP might not spot your error.
Looking at it now, it is indeed 53.7bb into a pot that will be 78+53.7+53.7 = 185.4bb if he calls. That requires equity of 53.7/185.4 to break even. So approximately 29% equity is required. I think hero actually has nearer 17% against typical ranges.
Yep, you’re right. I can’t believe I messed that up. 1.5 to 1 is 40%. I was thinking that. 2.5 to 1 is around 29% equity.
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05-26-2018 , 02:51 PM
You guys doing the math for OP aren't doing him any favors. js
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