Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Beginners Questions Poker beginner? Ask your (possibly) naive question here and our community will attempt to help you.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 12-04-2017, 08:47 PM   #1
Mortek
stranger
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 2
Out insight

Hi,

I was thinking about the outs you can have on flop and turn and thought it could be much different than i learnd it.

Say you have AK on 493 flop, you would think you have 2 times 9 outs for making the nutflush (13-4=9 diamond cards). But is it realistic to think there are still 9 diamonds left in the deck since there are 8 players with 2 cards in hand? You can expect these 16 cards contain a few diamonds too (9/(52-5)*16=3.06). So a realistic expectation would be 2 times 6 outs instead of 9 in this view, which is a huge difference!

Reasonable, right? Or why not?
Mortek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-04-2017, 09:00 PM   #2
Tutejszy
veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 2,033
Re: Out insight

no, this is already accounted for. In your example, if there are 3 diamonds taken by 16 already used cards, you know those 16 cards dont take any additional diamonds, so you are drawing 6 diamonds out of 31 cards (52-5-16), which is very similar equity (slightly more actually). But since you dont have any additional information about used cards, it is correct to just assume they are all unknown.
Tutejszy is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-04-2017, 10:16 PM   #3
Didace
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Didace's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 13,565
Re: Out insight

What are the odds that all diamonds are in the other players' hands?
What are the odds that none of the diamonds are in the other players' hands?
What are the odds for each number of diamonds in the other players' hands?
What are the odds when you combine all of the above?
Didace is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-04-2017, 11:12 PM   #4
Lego05
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 24,105
Re: Out insight

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mortek View Post
Hi,

I was thinking about the outs you can have on flop and turn and thought it could be much different than i learnd it.

Say you have AK on 493 flop, you would think you have 2 times 9 outs for making the nutflush (13-4=9 diamond cards). But is it realistic to think there are still 9 diamonds left in the deck since there are 8 players with 2 cards in hand? You can expect these 16 cards contain a few diamonds too (9/(52-5)*16=3.06). So a realistic expectation would be 2 times 6 outs instead of 9 in this view, which is a huge difference!

Reasonable, right? Or why not?

And 9/47 = 6/31 (give or take due to rounding), so you will get the same answer.




See number 1 at the below link:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...stions-676280/
Lego05 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-04-2017, 11:46 PM   #5
Mortek
stranger
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 2
Re: Out insight

True guys. I feel stupid I didn't see that immediately, but at least that's cleared up now in my universe thanks anyway!
Mortek is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:12 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright ę 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online