Quote:
Originally Posted by DrStrangePork
Points taken. I guess my real question is assuming that I am making money (currently my <$2 is now >$200), at what point relative to the ~$900 I've invested can I consider myself a good player? Do I have to get all the way to the black (make $900)? How long of a consistent track record of positive cash flow account for a "good" player and not just a hot streak? It may be months before I accomplish earning all my initial starting cash back: do I have to wait that long to feel proud of myself?
what CMAR said ^^^^
FWIW, are you really asking whether you're "good" or not? I think I'm just echoing what CMAR said but there are, in my mind, two things that you should be asking yourself:
1. Am I a winning player?
2. Am I consistently making +EV decisions?
If the answer is #2 is "yes," then it doesn't really matter whether you have a positive win rate or not. But there obviously is a strong correlation between making +EV decisions consistently and winning poker. Over time, you'll have a positive win rate.
So the question becomes, in the shorter term, can you draw any inferences from your win rate? And while I think that you can, only by objectively considering your decisionmaking can you get a more reliable answer to this question.
In other words, if you have a positive win rate after a million hands, you can feel confident you're a good player. If you have a positive win rate over 10k hands, I think you can feel confident you're a good player only if you also have some insight into the quality of your play. And it's a sliding scale, obviously, so the more hands you have the greater you can be confident you're a good player based on your win rate alone.
But it's hard to be objective about your own play, which is why it helps to participate in strat discussions on the forum. If your play is consistently criticized by people who know what they're talking about, perhaps you're not as good as you think. If you don't understand why you're making the decisions you're making, that's another clue.
And what CMAR said about "good" being relative is right. Yeah, you're good compared to your mom who never played poker. You're good compared to the drunk guy at 2NL who put $50 on pokerstars and drank a case of beer while he reraised the turn with second pair. But you probably suck compared to many of the people on this forum, most of the people playing 200NL, anyone you watch when you turn on TV, and Dustin Hoffman's character from Rain Man who is probably a damn good poker player, too.
Anyway, this getting way tl;dr. Short version: if you sustain a positive win rate over many, many, many hands, you can call yourself good if you want to. In the absence of that many hands, you have to be very honest with yourself about the quality of your poker decisionmaking.