Quote:
Originally Posted by Jakeeck
thats not the way i look at it.. against a nit with a 10% vpip u can steal almost everytime cuz he rarely calls.. against a calling station who plays 50% u wanna raise and make sure ur hand is better so u can extract value after the flop
Yes, to an extent you are correct. However, let's say BB VPIPs 50%, but vs a steal he will call only 30%. If you raise lets say 25%, then your range is better than his when he calls, and you have position, and you have initiative in the hand, and you make money when your steal suceeds. That's too many advantages/ways to make money for you to pass up. You're leaving way too much money on the table by only stealing 13%.
Or look at it this way: Of the times you are in the button and everyone folds before you, you rate to have the best hand 33% of the time (b/c there's 3 ppl left in the hand). Of the times you are in the CO and everyone folds before you, you rate to have the best hand 25% of the time. So, you have the best hand between 25 and 33 percent of the time,
BUT YOU ARE ONLY PLAYING 13% OF YOUR HANDS. You're throwing away half or more of your "share" of winning hands by folding so much in steal positions. And in fact your "share" of winning hands is even greater than 25 or 33 percent because you have position.
BB will call with Q3s or 54s? Good, your QTo and 55 just gained massive value without you even doing anything. But not if you fold them. It's even better if SB is a nit, because he won't get in your way as your valuetown the massive fish in BB.
Now, this doesn't apply as strongly if the BB is a 50/33/2 type, because he will reraise you and put you in tough spots. In that case, it is probably correct to nit-up and wait for good hands. But if he's something like a 50/7/1, then it will be easy to determine when you're beat and you should want to play many hands against him.
I'm a winning player at $.50/$1.00 NL and I steal around 40%. Maybe 40% is a bit too high for microstakes and if you're not too comfortable playing post-flop. But I am certain that 13% is way too low.