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Old 06-27-2009, 09:40 AM   #501
AcesVsMuck
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Re: ** Official Beginners NL Holdem Stats Thread **

Here are my stats for may and june. I only started saving hands in march, but I think my march and april stats aren't really applicable now because I've developed so much.

I'd like some feedback on my aggression. What I do seems to work fine for me. I don't think flop aggression is worth talking about because that's just to do with c-bets. At these limits, I should probably c-bet a little bit more.

My turn and river aggression is pretty low though. Is this too far out of the ordinary? I can't really think of stuff I do/don't do that makes my aggression so low compared to most other winning players. I think I double barrel enough and I think I get thin value when I'm confident I can

Graph:


Stats:
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Old 06-27-2009, 10:25 AM   #502
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Re: ** Official Beginners NL Holdem Stats Thread **

can anyone give me some info on agression factor? i mean say a guy with an agression factor of 2 compared to someone with 4, how much more agressive is the guy with 4?
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Old 06-27-2009, 12:40 PM   #503
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Re: ** Official Beginners NL Holdem Stats Thread **

Can anybody help me out on some HUD stats

I want to do some colour coding. I need some average frequencies for:

1) donk bet flop
2) fold to turn bet
3) 4bet
4) fold to 4bet

That's all I need atm.

Last edited by AcesVsMuck; 06-27-2009 at 12:55 PM.
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Old 06-28-2009, 01:06 AM   #504
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Re: ** Official Beginners NL Holdem Stats Thread **

Okay,

I'm going to bite the bullet. Every time I see a winner's stats, it seems like they run like 24/24/5 with a three bet of 10%.

So I'm pretty sure I've got some big leaks, although I'm not sure how to get there. Any advice is welcome.

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Old 06-29-2009, 02:14 AM   #505
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Re: ** Official Beginners NL Holdem Stats Thread **

Analyzing so few stats is tough, I think the best person to analyze stats and find leaks is yourself.

Anyways, came here to ask what a good Fold to Cbet is? I've memorized several holdem books, have doubled my hands played[experience] and think I'm playing +EV and I'm running with 48% fold to cbet. Which hardly varies session to session, what do you guys think?

If you need it: I'm standard TAG... 20/16 3.5 AF, ~40WWSF, 26% WTSD. Oh, also, I call Cbets 42% and raise them 10%.
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Old 06-29-2009, 04:16 AM   #506
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Re: ** Official Beginners NL Holdem Stats Thread **

Quote:
Originally Posted by kaos_ View Post
Analyzing so few stats is tough, I think the best person to analyze stats and find leaks is yourself.

Anyways, came here to ask what a good Fold to Cbet is? I've memorized several holdem books, have doubled my hands played[experience] and think I'm playing +EV and I'm running with 48% fold to cbet. Which hardly varies session to session, what do you guys think?

If you need it: I'm standard TAG... 20/16 3.5 AF, ~40WWSF, 26% WTSD. Oh, also, I call Cbets 42% and raise them 10%.
That is an interesting question. The guys who limp/call pre and then fold >70% of c-bets are among my favourite opponents.
I just checked (not many hands in the database on this machine) and I see I'm around 42% fold to c-bet, 25% raise, which is classified as extremely low/high by Holdem Manager. Too low fold in my own opinion, I need to just give up on pots more.

Your 48% fold looks quite good to me -- if you fold 60% or so, c-betting becomes automatically profitable for opponents on just about their entire range.
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Old 06-30-2009, 10:23 AM   #507
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Re: ** Official Beginners NL Holdem Stats Thread **

Ok, I've been playing 2NL 6max and really need BIG time help!!!

It seems impossible for me to win, and when I do I blow everything in one big pot.
My biggest concern is my post-flop play, I have a tendency to bet marginal/speculative hands to much, getting involved in multiway pots with nothing that overcards or 4outs to an inside straight draw or a nut/3rd nut flush draw that misses...

And I also slowplay big hands (ie. set) a bit to much and someone else hits a 4outer to a inside straight-draw...and when I bet a set someone else calls me down and hit flush, straight or nut-set on the river.

I'm posting some stats, hope you can help me.
I do read everything I can on 2+2 and viewed every free video on Stox, also have read Sklanskys books. Tries to play/study poker at least 10-15h/week and I really want to do well and climb the poker ladder...but now I really sucks as a pokerplayer...how will I be a winning player ??

Here are the stats:
http://img25.imageshack.us/gal.php?g=60498502.jpg


Help, please!!!
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Old 06-30-2009, 10:39 AM   #508
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Re: ** Official Beginners NL Holdem Stats Thread **

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lalla150 View Post
I have a tendency to bet marginal/speculative hands to much, getting involved in multiway pots with nothing that overcards or 4outs to an inside straight draw or a nut/3rd nut flush draw that misses...

And I also slowplay big hands (ie. set) a bit to much and someone else hits a 4outer to a inside straight-draw...and when I bet a set someone else calls me down and hit flush, straight or nut-set on the river.
You just answered your own question no?

I've never played 2NL but I would probably think about playing more positionally and 3 betting less.

Difficult to say more as I can't really see the stats, the images are so small and I'm not downloading them.
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Old 06-30-2009, 11:51 AM   #509
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Re: ** Official Beginners NL Holdem Stats Thread **

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Originally Posted by slipp3ry333 View Post
You just answered your own question no?

I've never played 2NL but I would probably think about playing more positionally and 3 betting less.

Difficult to say more as I can't really see the stats, the images are so small and I'm not downloading them.
Yes, perhaps I did...but I would like some comments anyway. Always better when someone else let you now what the leaks might be...

But if you click the picture, then click "Full Size" just below the new picture that appears. Then you should see all the stats.
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Old 06-30-2009, 07:15 PM   #510
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Re: ** Official Beginners NL Holdem Stats Thread **

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Originally Posted by Lalla150 View Post
Yes, perhaps I did...but I would like some comments anyway. Always better when someone else let you now what the leaks might be...

But if you click the picture, then click "Full Size" just below the new picture that appears. Then you should see all the stats.
The problems you're describing here don't really show up in stats. Or if they do, the stats problems aren't among your biggest 5 leaks.

You have to learn to:
(1) Bet when you (think you) have the best hand. Value, value, value is what counts at NL2. If they fold when you hit a set, oh well, at least you win the pot.
(2) Do not overplay mediocre hands. Top pair is only worth about 2 bets. If it gets raised or called, you're beaten often. Or if not, it's usually a calling station that will give you a free showdown anyhow.
(3) When people raise, fold unless you have a monster. The majority of players at this level really only bet with big hands. You'll recognize the maniac bluffers soon enough, because they do bet like every hand.
(4) On bet sizing: never ever bet less than 1/2 pot, or preferably 2/3 pot. Never bet more than full pot, unless you think some idiot will call your all-in with the nuts.
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Old 07-02-2009, 03:09 AM   #511
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Re: ** Official Beginners NL Holdem Stats Thread **

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Originally Posted by cman24687 View Post
can anyone give me some info on agression factor? i mean say a guy with an agression factor of 2 compared to someone with 4, how much more agressive is the guy with 4?
twice as aggressive per street or twice as often//mix of both. if you have HEM and have aggro on HUD (which you should) hover your mouse over the aggro number and it is pretty self explanatory
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Old 07-02-2009, 04:22 AM   #512
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Re: ** Official Beginners NL Holdem Stats Thread **

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Originally Posted by DONGERR View Post
twice as aggressive per street or twice as often//mix of both. if you have HEM and have aggro on HUD (which you should) hover your mouse over the aggro number and it is pretty self explanatory
It's not quite that simple.
AF = (#times you bet + #times you raised)/(#times you called)

So it is actually more of an indicator of how likely you are to call: people with a very high AF basically always raise or fold to a bet, and never call.
So you also want to look at their fold% to judge whether they are aggro monkey spewers, or just really aggressive TAG/LAGs.
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Old 07-02-2009, 08:46 AM   #513
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-2.5BB/100 at NL10 for 10K hands, please help.

I'm 99.9% sure that I'm a decent winner at this pathetic level but since it's pretty rare for such a winner to go on a stretch like this I'm obviously losing confidence. I don't know why I'm losing, my stats look fine and I've been told again and again that I should crush NL10. My non-showdown winnings are not great at -7BB/100 but even with those I still should do ok, the problem has been in showdown pots lately.

Stats and position stats:





Graph:



Im not even going to post any hands, there's too mnay of them. 10 biggest pots lost have been with trips vs fh, JJ aipf vs guy shoving every hand, trips vs fh, nut straight vs flush, set over set, set vs flush, 2 pair vs set, nut straight vs flush, again nut straight vs flush and AA aipf. That's 10 buyins and there are tons of other 60-90bb pots that have gone in similar ways. Nobody breaks even in showdown pots right? So it must just be a bad run. Please tell me if you can see any major leaks because I cannot. Btw before this I beat NL10 for 10BB/100 over 10k hands, dont know why my results are so swingy when I do not play a high variance style.
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Old 07-02-2009, 08:52 AM   #514
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Re: -2.5BB/100 at NL10 for 10K hands, please help.

[QUOTE=Green_29;11612578]I'm 99.9% sure that I'm a decent winner at this pathetic level but since it's pretty rare for such a winner to go on a stretch like this I'm obviously losing confidence.QUOTE]

I don't get it. You are the one that always posts about how it's common to go on long BE stretches in poker and even posted the link to the variance thread. 10k hands of down swing, seems standard to me.
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Old 07-02-2009, 09:13 AM   #515
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Re: ** Official Beginners NL Holdem Stats Thread **

Hey fellas, this is my first 10K hands since reading and memorizing some awesome poker literature... taking steps to improve. Tell me what you think please.

The first 8.6K are 2NL and the last 1K is 5NL, I definitely noticed how much more often 5NLers want to fold and I think I will adjust to that positively.









Please find a big leak or four!
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Old 07-02-2009, 09:17 AM   #516
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Re: -2.5BB/100 at NL10 for 10K hands, please help.

Quote:
Originally Posted by KingKongGrinder View Post
I don't get it. You are the one that always posts about how it's common to go on long BE stretches in poker and even posted the link to the variance thread. 10k hands of down swing, seems standard to me.
Actually most people post BE stretches < 10K hands and whilst it may not seem like a lot the difference between BE and -2.5 is quite a lot. Assuming a fairly typical standard deviation of 40BB/100 a 7BB/100 winner will lose at this rate for this long less than 1% of the time.

I am completley honest with myself when it comes to poker, if I feel I'm being outplayed then I would admit it. But all I see at NL10 is players constantly making terrible plays and having terrible stats, when I post hands I almost always ended up making what other posters would consider to be the correct decision. It really does feel like every time I have a good hand someone has a great hand but when ever I have a great hand no one has anything. The fact that I never have anything is probably also hurting my non-showdown winnings, since Im not betting as much therefore my opponents have less opportunities to fold. But yeah, the main problem is the fact that my blue line is BE.
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Old 07-02-2009, 09:29 AM   #517
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Re: ** Official Beginners NL Holdem Stats Thread **

Green, I think you have two problems there...

I think you fold to 3bets out of the blinds too much. Get used to playing in 3bet pots in position, imo, players play terribly in 3bet pots at the micros. Also, this keeps villains in your blinds from defending and is +EV.

Secondly, I think you CB too little but continue with air too often. That's just an assumption atm but your CB% is fairly low and your aggression is fairly high...
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Old 07-02-2009, 10:06 AM   #518
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Re: ** Official Beginners NL Holdem Stats Thread **

Quote:
Originally Posted by kaos_ View Post
Green, I think you have two problems there...

I think you fold to 3bets out of the blinds too much. Get used to playing in 3bet pots in position, imo, players play terribly in 3bet pots at the micros. Also, this keeps villains in your blinds from defending and is +EV.
What sort of hands should I be calling 3bets with? As you can see I raise fairly wide from the CO and BTN, so when Im 3bet my average hand is not that strong. I always get advised to fold to 3bets preflop and I fold to them even less than most players do!???

Quote:
Originally Posted by kaos_ View Post
Secondly, I think you CB too little but continue with air too often. That's just an assumption atm but your CB% is fairly low and your aggression is fairly high...
What sort of c-bet% do you recommend? Keep in mind that they work less than 50% of the time. Funny thing is that I try to c-bet against people with fold to cbet% of over 65%, yet they still fail more often than they work.
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Old 07-02-2009, 10:24 AM   #519
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Re: ** Official Beginners NL Holdem Stats Thread **

I tend to call with all sorts of hands once I have a read on villians play in 3bet pots. It only takes one or two plays on his resteal to get him to stop. From what I can see - you're bleeding to those resteals so you either need to steal less or defend against it. The button is where you are losing all your money.

Do you cbet every K or A high and two low card flops? Do you cbet every pair/draw OOP? That's a good start, imo. I think 75% c-bet is where you want to be.

Also, double barrel anything in position when opponents range doesn't include TPTK or 2P hands. Probably just double barrel more in general, especially OOP. As your cbets are probably being floated a lot.

Edit; as an extra note... I believe the optimal steal %, as I've read, is closer to 28-30%...

Last edited by kaos_; 07-02-2009 at 10:33 AM.
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Old 07-02-2009, 10:43 AM   #520
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Re: -2.5BB/100 at NL10 for 10K hands, please help.

[QUOTE=Green_29;11612945]Actually most people post BE stretches < 10K hands and whilst it may not seem like a lot the difference between BE and -2.5 is quite a lot. Assuming a fairly typical standard deviation of 40BB/100 a 7BB/100 winner will lose at this rate for this long less than 1% of the time.
QUOTE]

If you are a winning player and the players are as bad as you think at 10NL then just give it another 10k hands. I play 10NL and just came out of a 16k hand BE stretch. I was winning at 9ptbb/100 before this stretch.
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Old 07-02-2009, 10:45 AM   #521
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Re: ** Official Beginners NL Holdem Stats Thread **

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Originally Posted by kaos_ View Post
I tend to call with all sorts of hands once I have a read on villians play in 3bet pots. It only takes one or two plays on his resteal to get him to stop. From what I can see - you're bleeding to those resteals so you either need to steal less or defend against it. The button is where you are losing all your money.
Its only 10% of the time that I am being 3bet, so I don't think that it would be a good idea to stop stealing just because of this. I am also calling these 3bets 30% of the time, which I thought was a decent number.

Like the whole 10K hands, I think I am losing money (or not winning) due to showdown winnings. On the button my blue line is negative, non-showdown winnings look fine. Since I know there is no way I am a losing player in showdown pots longterm, I suspect it's just variance. Looking at my biggest pots lost form the button I can see that at least 5 of 6 buyins have gone due to complete coolers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kaos_ View Post
Do you cbet every K or A high and two low card flops? Do you cbet every pair/draw OOP? That's a good start, imo. I think 75% c-bet is where you want to be.
Yep I c-bet just about every A or K high flop + when I have any pair or draw. Only when I completley miss will I give up. Before this stratch my c-bet% was ~80%, I think it has dropped just due to short term variance and me missing flops more often than I should.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kaos_ View Post
Also, double barrel anything in position when opponents range doesn't include 2P hands. Probably just double barrel more in general, especially OOP. As your cbets are probably being floated a lot.
I suspected that this was happening. One thing that has shook my confidence is that 90% of the time I have 2nd barrelled over the last 10K hands villain has had an absolute minimum of top pair, this of course changes when I have a hand myself.
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Old 07-02-2009, 10:53 AM   #522
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Re: ** Official Beginners NL Holdem Stats Thread **

I made a slight mistake with some of your numbers... you actually are calling too often with your stealing range. (since it's so wide)

I call 3bets 35% with a tighter range so I think you should maybe do the math on that. If I have 66% your steal range, I should be calling 1.5x as often? Maybe you should be calling 3bets only 23% of the time.

Anyways, I don't think this is just variance. Sorry. Your button numbers are awful. I think you should start by tightening up and work back from there... find a happy medium.

Perhaps try filtering out your % success of blind steal and filter to when you att to steal and are raised and look at how much you've won/lost there.
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Old 07-02-2009, 11:56 AM   #523
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Re: ** Official Beginners NL Holdem Stats Thread **

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Originally Posted by kaos_ View Post
Anyways, I don't think this is just variance. Sorry. Your button numbers are awful. I think you should start by tightening up and work back from there... find a happy medium.

Perhaps try filtering out your % success of blind steal and filter to when you att to steal and are raised and look at how much you've won/lost there.
No need to be sorry, I want honest answers. I actually wish it was not variance so that I could improve, but I don't see at all what I am doing wrong. When you said my button numbers are awful, did you mean my stats or my winrate? If stats then what's wrong with them? If winrate then like I said it's that way due to breaking even in showdown pots, which I know should definitely not be happening. My non-showdown winnings on the button are +10BB/100.

To the numbers. When I raise on the button I take down the pot preflop more than half the time, which is pretty good right? Facing 3bet after I've raised button I am down $30, that does not look to good and like you said I should probably fold to 3bets more and just focus on stealing blinds then giving up if it fails. Almost all of this $30 loss is coming from non-showdown pots, since Im either folding preflop to the 3bets or calling then folding to flop bets. Again I think a lot of this is down to variance - because I have filtered my database to raised button/called 3bet, there are only 9 hands, but so far I have not flopped a pair once. Also I always seem to get 3bet when I'm right at the bottom of my stealing range, which is annoying.
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Old 07-02-2009, 12:10 PM   #524
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Re: ** Official Beginners NL Holdem Stats Thread **

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Originally Posted by Green_29 View Post
To the numbers. When I raise on the button I take down the pot preflop more than half the time, which is pretty good right? Facing 3bet after I've raised button I am down $30. ..
Pre-flop more than half the time, or postflop? We really need to identify your problems on the button. I'm 100% sure that's where your largest leaks are. The bold line being one of them.

I think the other is that you're winning tiny pots with your pre-flop play and losing large pots with your post-flop play. You have a 41% W$WD% OTB so here are some of your showdown losses.

Also, show me your WWSF% for your button play, you have such a high AF that maybe you are just firing your marginal pairs, rather than check/calling, and value towning yourself.

Lastly, lets see your graph for the button. Go to filters and select position off button = 0 and let's see... from what you say, your SDW should be positive but I will guarantee that they aren't. And you already admitted your NSDW suck on the button... all three lines should be positive OTB.

Here's mine: (I'm the most ABC player...)



Half of your winnings should come from the button.

Last edited by kaos_; 07-02-2009 at 12:18 PM.
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Old 07-02-2009, 12:34 PM   #525
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Re: ** Official Beginners NL Holdem Stats Thread **

Quote:
Originally Posted by fabadam View Post
The problems you're describing here don't really show up in stats. Or if they do, the stats problems aren't among your biggest 5 leaks.

You have to learn to:
(1) Bet when you (think you) have the best hand. Value, value, value is what counts at NL2. If they fold when you hit a set, oh well, at least you win the pot.
(2) Do not overplay mediocre hands. Top pair is only worth about 2 bets. If it gets raised or called, you're beaten often. Or if not, it's usually a calling station that will give you a free showdown anyhow.
(3) When people raise, fold unless you have a monster. The majority of players at this level really only bet with big hands. You'll recognize the maniac bluffers soon enough, because they do bet like every hand.
(4) On bet sizing: never ever bet less than 1/2 pot, or preferably 2/3 pot. Never bet more than full pot, unless you think some idiot will call your all-in with the nuts.
Thanx for the advice, I do think this will help me. As you said, my leaks isn't in the numbers.
I think I need to get better on reading peoples hands and further more, THINK more at the table not just click-n-play on autopilot because I'm not good enough for that...
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