If i bluff by betting 80 into a 140 pot, how often does it have to work?

After this post back in december '08
I fixed some leaks in my 25NL game, read some books, watched some vids, read the micro forums, etc.

Here are the stats now, all played since jan '09, any comments?




Ps. Wasn't able to play a lot this year, due to school and lazyness.

First 10k hands at 25NL after comp reformat

Anyways...thoughts?





(I'm rolled for 100NL but I'm a bankroll nit, so I can give 50NL shots if everything looks good...I'll probably put in another 10k hands and if solid results move up)

It's hard to argue with your results; You seem to be doing really well.

The only possible anomaly I see is your winnings from the button. For some reason, these are lagging behind your results in the CO and HJ. In general, this position should be your most profitable position (which is also why you'll be playing the most hands from here). It's possible this is just a statistical anomaly, but it may be worth considering what you're doing differently on the button (e.g., are you overvaluing the button position and getting caught more often here? Are you undervaluing it and giving up to the blinds too often?). Whatever mistake you might be making here, it's not obvious from your stats. Showdown vs. Non-showdown winnings would be interesting to see.

Your position stats would be really helpful.

The one stat that jumps out at me is your WTSD percentage. 20.8% seems really low (my WTSD is 21.6% which I also consider to be on the lower limits)

The stat that goes with this (W$SD) is also low - you're winning fewer showdowns than your winning. This seems unusual to me; Usually I would expect that players with a low WTSD would have a high W$SD, because the hands they showdown end up being only their strongest hands - yours, however, is not following this pattern.

Still, your blueline is good, so you're managing to make the showdowns you win count (probably a sign of good pot control).

I'm having a hard time reconciling these stats and your results - for example, if you're folding people out excessively when you have strong hands (one thing that could lead to a low WTSD), I would expect that to result in a better red-line - but your red-line is quite weak. I would also expect this to result in a worse blue line, but your blue line is quite strong.

Perhaps another place to look is your Aggression percentage. This stat looks quite low to me at 36%. Your aggression factor is fairly good, however, so this may be an indicator that you're not barreling enough. Your position stats should shed more light on this. The other stats that may be helpful would be your street-by-street AF and Aggression %.

A final thought, looking at your chart - you seem to have gone through two different phases/styles of play. From hand 3700 to 9000, I'm seeing a relatively level red-line, but also a fairly level blue line, where the hands before/after this are showing a fairly negative sloped red-line but a positive sloped blue-line. These may just be statistical anomalies, but if you varied your play considerably over the measurement period, that may account for some of the confusion your stats are causing me.

Ty for your comment.

Forgot i posted here, thanks for the input.

I still dont understand FE and im working on getting to the 10k at 2NL so i can repost the stats.

Worked on stealing the blinds more and i've also started to light bit slighty, nothing crazy etc

It had been going well, started to get some money in then i had 3 days of bad cards and a few shaftings on the river. I mean, some of the cards people call with at 2NL theres no way you can put them on hands!

Hopefully it wont take too long as my graph is now in negative, but still up through FTP bonuses etc

Hi, guys! I`m in the middle of a downstreak- decided, it`s a good reason to ask for some opinions on my game- what aspects need improvment.

Hello,

This is my first post on this forum even if i read some posts once in a while. I'm 32 years old and i've started to play 3-4 years ago. Mainly online poker and home game.

3 weeks ago i've decided to play seriously and to manage my bankroll. I've started with $22 that i had on PS for the last 12 months. I've installed poker tracker and my goal is to turn those $22 into the maximum i can do.

I play mostly NL Texas Hold'em at $0.02 and also some tournaments. I'd like to hit the $100+ before the end of the month so i can play at higher stakes ($0.05).

Here are my current stats :

Hey guys, first time at this forum for me -- and I cannot believe how deeply and scientifically you guys think about this game!

Here's my noob question if anybody can help me.

I play 5/10 cent NLHE at 10 player tables. My stats right now are 33/8/2 with WSD%=29 and WSDW$=56%. (I don't use PT so I don't have more detailed stats).

I keep reading that I should keep my VP$IP% below 20%. But when I play tight like that at a table with Plrs/Flop% = 25%, I find that I usually only win the blinds when I finally have a good hand (which is very frustrating), or I get called by someone who flops a set or something and they end up with my whole stack.

So my questions are:
When you guys frequently recommend playing with VP$IP% below 20%, do you also need to find a table with very high Plrs/Flop% ? And if so, how high Plrs/Flop% would u need to find in order for you to play tight this way?

Thanks a lot! (Please send me a link if this has already been addressed elsewhere)

Just wanted to post stats to see if I can start to make any type of real conclusion if im in this to win this yet.... getting close to 20k.. which I know is small but I've heard some say 20k is a good standard to put yourself too... also if anything sticks out like a sore thumb please tell.... trying to improve anywhere I can.. oh yeah... thats all 2nl 6 max with a small dip into 5nl max.. took a 14bi downswing in the early going too

http://img9.imageshack.us/my.php?image=20090418.jpg

can start opening your range now if you want, im sure by now you can tell how how to play. So opening your range a bit will allow you to further your win rate. can look in poker stove for like % of hands to get in idea,
like my UTG is around 10% but my button is around 30 which ends up being about 17/15 for me.

Open up your range. Also, move up.

At those stakes i'd suggest you to play tight even if it's boring. Most people play way too loose so by playing only good hands you'll get and advantage. Yes sometime ti is frustrating to only win the blinds when you have pocket kings or something but imo it is the only. I've tried to slowplayed this kind of hand but there's always a calling station who will pay all the way long and finally get a set or something on the river.

When i play on PS i try to find the table with the higher number of hand play, the most people on flop and the biggest pots.

using bankroll management.. i've tried opening my range more... which i do considerably on the button and cut off... but other then that have found being a semi nit at this level pays you more.. also what i've been told for levels 2nl-10nl

you are such a nit. i guess i agree it is probably most profitable however you could probably open up a little bit. certainly stealing on the button and from the cut off. i would be surprised if u cant get away with like 40% attempt to steal. until u move up to like NL25 tho, just stick to what you are doing

yeah... i've actually grown a little more open the past 2k hands.. and it probably isn't showing through too much yet... but i would guess im not playing any more then like a 16/13 in reality... will probably leave it alone until i hit 10nl... then open up a bit more in position.. to(hopefully warm up) for 25nl... thanks

Only conclusion to be made is that you're a nit imo (which more or less isn't terrible at the lowest uNL) but you need to start opening up your game

will deffinately work at it...when i get up the levels.. just wanted to make sure the other stuff was ok and nothing stuck out besides the vpip/prf.. cause i like them ok where they are at now.... when im up at 25nl.. i'll be going for about a 22/18 style

Not to be a meanie or anything like that.

We all have to learn and start somewhere.
I was a huge nit when I started to obv.

The reason we do so is that when we do play like a nit, it's easier for us to play (because we're never really dominated or anything like that), and the first thing we need to learn is to get value from our hands.

When you play loose starting out, you experience a lot of marginal situations that we're not capable of dealing with, and therefore we typically advocate a very tight play. As we get better, we start opening up and start experiencing slightly more and more marginal situations. Best way to learn imo. GL

I would do 2 things:

1. Get 15k more hands
2. Post your VPIP/PFR type stats (W$SD, WTSD, W$SF) and the same kind of stuff you already posted.

From what I've seen so far things seem ok, but it is a small sample.

All hands are from 6max. 100k hands of 10NL, 40k from 25NL (ran bad for the last 25k of it losing alot), and 10k from 50NL:









EDIT: my question is simply if you can spot any room for improvement or leaks that I could plug.

Something is very very wrong.

This is last year:





Now this is this year:




How is this even possible? My stats are practically identical yet the graphs are insanely different. These are the same games/same site/same everything. This has not been a good year and I have no clue what has gone wrong. Thanks!

Edit: God. I still can't believe the differences in these graphs. It blows my mind.

you are winning money at showdown, but losing when not showing down, so show down more often

seriously, your won$@sd ranges from 55% to 62%. that's very high. you're either on a 150k heater, or giving up too easily.

you are also 3betting only 3%. that's way tight for 6max. at 50nl+, you'll need to do more of that (or so I'm told).

check out redjoker's post about wtsd and w$@sd. he also wrote an interesting general pt stat post that covers some of the same ideas. He suggests that 40% won$wsf is on the low end of reasonable.

cliff's notes: you're a nit

Found this graph, normal? (I play FR)

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