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NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

12-18-2009 , 07:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikelle
Jack,

Could you write bit more about suited connectors? I mean - the way they are played/missplayed at micros? How profitable is to call 3bet (or not) with them? Defendig blinds with SC or even 3bet BTN who steals a lot....

Long story short - Guide for SC from NL10 to NL50 and point out differences in levels (if so?).

i think that the main suited connectors are thought about very naively by a lot of players at the micros. poker is about exploiting equity edges over your opponents. what that means is that unless you can outplay your opponent postflop, playing hands which are behind their range in terms of equity will only lose you money.

to put into perspective how well/ badly suited connectors play if u dont have an edge postflop on your opponent, try plugging a range into pokerstove whereby you have 67s and are playing against a) an opponent who opens in early position and is relatively tag, and b) an opponent who opens on the button with a loose range and you are in the big blind.

you will see you have roughly about 34% equity in case a, and about 38% equity in case b. so you are never at all a favourite.

also, in case b you will be playing the hand oop if u call which negates some equity and makes u more of an underdog to win the hand. however in case a, you are ip, so at least you will be able to play a bit more profitably if you have decent reads on your opponent.

furthermore, on the majority of flops, you wont be flopping a strong hand, you will be flopping some sort of draw.

in case a: http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...7s&h3=&h4=&h5=

in case b: http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...7s&h3=&h4=&h5=

what the graphs are showing, is how often you flop a certain amount of equity. in both cases, 70% of the time, we are going to have less than 50% equity in the hand. you very rarely flop a very strong hand at all. whenever you are behind your opponents range you need to be able to have some sort of edge on him, whereby sometimes u can bluff him off the best hand, and sometimes u can get value via implied odds when u hit.

most regs arent stupid nowadays and its not super easy to stack their top pair when the flush card hits etc, so dont make the mistake of chasing thinking that u can stack them when u make your hand every time.

fish on the other hand... well you really want to play as many pots in position vs fish as u can since they will make a lot of mistakes... either they will just check and fold when they miss, or they will get attached to a marginal hand and u make a ton from implied odds when u hit...

so basically in single raised pots, you want to be playing in position vs fish always, you want to be playing in position vs the reg if you think u have a good handle on his range and therefore know which flops will hit him/ which flops wont and if u have a rough idea how he will react to various turn and river cards in order to estimate your implied odds.


3bet pots are a bit different... as already saw in the graphs, we will be mostly flopping draws or other hands which have about 30% equity or so. therefore we will need to be relying very strongly on fold equity. implied odds dont exist so much in 3bet pots because the effective stack sizes become a lot shallower as the stack to pot ratio becomes smaller. in single raised pots, if someone raises to 3bb and u call, the pot on the flop will be 7.5bb or so with 95bb behind - over 10x the pot. if u raise to 3bb, someone 3bets to 10bb and u call, the pot will be about 20bb with only 90bb behind - only 4.5x the size of the pot.

so essentially, you are going to have be shipping a bunch of flops and turns when u have a flush draw or a straight draw in order to make up for the times u miss, and also because u have no implied odds and therefore have to rely on fold equity to make money. vs someone with a really loose 3betting range - 12% + from that specific position at the table - their range will often be weak enough on the flop in order to acquire the required fold equity, however vs someone who only 3bets about 6% or so from that position, you have no where near the fold equity required on any flop because they will have far too many big pairs in their range.

cliffnotes:

- connectors are behind any raising range
- therefore you need to play better than your opponent post flop (easy vs a fish, maybe hard vs a reg).
- a lot better to play in position since u have added equity.
- with a high stack to pot ratio, you can make people make more mistakes.
- if theres not much money behind, its hard to outplay people because no one is folding a pair.
- in 3bet pots therefore, you are relying on pure fold equity where they have a hand that misses.
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-18-2009 , 07:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kendouy
One thing I was wondering about, you said when you start getting light 3 bets against you, the easiest thing is just get up and leave the table. But if that's not an option, how do we adjust? Start 4 betting a wider range to like 2,25x of their 3 bet or something?
1) how is getting up not an option? u mean to say that if you 6 table (an arbitary number), then theres no more tables in the lobby? switch sites ldo... lol staying at a table out of the ego-maniacal view "im going to show this guy he cant run me over" is going to get u in a lot of trouble...

2) work out how they are reacting to 4bets..... then u will find one of 2 cases...

a) they might be the sort who 3bet JJ+ and AK, and the rest of their range is a load of trash... well they may be good people to 4bet if u have the required fold equity (work out how much fold equity u need to break even. then work out what that % represents in terms of the part of their 3bet range).

b) they might be the sort who 3bet a balanced range... maybe they 3bet 99+ and AQ+ and plan to shove over a 4bet by you... well these guys arent so good to 4bet bluff, however it does mean u can start to 4bet some weaker hands for value - u can start to get TT and JJ in here with a bit of a fistpump.


lastly, remember to pay attention to what position they are 3betting from. someone might have a 15% 3bet from the sb vs a btn open, however when u open from utg u better believe he isnt going to 3betting 15% from the sb in that spot. be more prepared to 4bet bluff, or 4bet lighter for value, when you raise from late position and get someone re-pop u from the blinds who have a high re-steal/ 3bet vs steal%.

also, 4betting lighter or 4bet bluffing is going to be real high variance. if a couple of them dont work out, that doesnt mean it wasnt necessarily right. go back to your pen and paper and work out the math again to make sure u didnt do anything wrong. if u did, then remember that for next time. if u didnt, then just chalk up to bad timing.
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-19-2009 , 06:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackwilcox
1) how is getting up not an option? u mean to say that if you 6 table (an arbitary number), then theres no more tables in the lobby? switch sites ldo... lol staying at a table out of the ego-maniacal view "im going to show this guy he cant run me over" is going to get u in a lot of trouble...

2) work out how they are reacting to 4bets..... then u will find one of 2 cases...

a) they might be the sort who 3bet JJ+ and AK, and the rest of their range is a load of trash... well they may be good people to 4bet if u have the required fold equity (work out how much fold equity u need to break even. then work out what that % represents in terms of the part of their 3bet range).

b) they might be the sort who 3bet a balanced range... maybe they 3bet 99+ and AQ+ and plan to shove over a 4bet by you... well these guys arent so good to 4bet bluff, however it does mean u can start to 4bet some weaker hands for value - u can start to get TT and JJ in here with a bit of a fistpump.


lastly, remember to pay attention to what position they are 3betting from. someone might have a 15% 3bet from the sb vs a btn open, however when u open from utg u better believe he isnt going to 3betting 15% from the sb in that spot. be more prepared to 4bet bluff, or 4bet lighter for value, when you raise from late position and get someone re-pop u from the blinds who have a high re-steal/ 3bet vs steal%.

also, 4betting lighter or 4bet bluffing is going to be real high variance. if a couple of them dont work out, that doesnt mean it wasnt necessarily right. go back to your pen and paper and work out the math again to make sure u didnt do anything wrong. if u did, then remember that for next time. if u didnt, then just chalk up to bad timing.
Thanks for the extensive answer! Regarding leaving the table, I was thinking more of a homegame 6 max cashgame, where you've planned to hang out and play poker, so it would seem kind of odd if I just got up and said "Nope, don't like this, I'm leaving". Online, it's always a viable option.

Been trying to do some light 4 betting with stuff like JJ and TT against a person thats somewhat of a "reg" that is real aggressive and 3 bets 15% or so on average, been working pretty good. But against the aggressive fish, well thats another story. They don't perceive the 4 bet as strenght, they see it as playing back at them, so then it becomes more of a risky play, as they can just shove over you with ATC.
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-19-2009 , 09:03 AM
Yeah, what a fantastic thread.
Thanks jack, for all the effort your putting into the experiment.
Hope the business studies, are not suffering too much because of it?
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-19-2009 , 10:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kendouy
Been trying to do some light 4 betting with stuff like JJ and TT against a person thats somewhat of a "reg" that is real aggressive and 3 bets 15% or so on average, been working pretty good. But against the aggressive fish, well thats another story. They don't perceive the 4 bet as strenght, they see it as playing back at them, so then it becomes more of a risky play, as they can just shove over you with ATC.
if you are deciding to 4bet TT/ JJ/ AQ sort of hands, it should never be to 4bet and then fold to a shove. so if an aggro fish shoves over the top of u, u shud be getting it in with a fist pump.
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-19-2009 , 10:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackwilcox
if you are deciding to 4bet TT/ JJ/ AQ sort of hands, it should never be to 4bet and then fold to a shove. so if an aggro fish shoves over the top of u, u shud be getting it in with a fist pump.
No, didn't mean I was folding them against a shove, just a bit more variance then they show A4o and hit the Ace on the flop
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-19-2009 , 05:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackwilcox
its not at all 'clear' he has only a draw. it is a thin bluff. like i was saying, he will show up with a lot of pairs. he will also show up with a lot of draws. he was playing like 68% vpip so that means he is essentially playing 68% of hands. that is any two cards suited and most cards that are connected, and i think he will check call with literally any draw.
when u use card combinations to take into account the various numbers of hand possibilities, there is a lot more missed draws than pairs. it wont work everytime, but because i only bet $1.50 into a $3.50 pot, it doesnt have to. if it works 30% of the time i will break even, any more than that and i show profit
So I've bolded two parts of you post that I want to bring to attention to clear up for me as well as others.

#1 So we have a clear drooler at nl10 who "will show up with a lot of pairs" but on the same note he also has a lot of draws. So why are we trying bluff a fish off of a pair he likely doesnt want to fold anyways? He could also call you with a missed Ax draw, like A4cc or A5 etc. Your line doesn't even make any credible sense anyways to get any hand to fold. Do you make bluffs like this at nl400? (honest question)

#2 68 vpip has nothing to do with what hand percentile he's playing. What I mean is vpip only measures hands that he's playing. It has no bearing on the strength of his actual hand. Like if I am running hot and can't stop getting aces/kings etc, then I may run 48 vpip over small sample, but that doesn't mean I'm playing half the possible hands in holdem. Unless I read that part wrong lol.

Good so far but I just wanted to get that posted before I continued through this thread.
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-19-2009 , 07:18 PM
killer_kill where did u quote that from? which post no.?
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-19-2009 , 09:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackwilcox
killer_kill where did u quote that from? which post no.?
it's post #41... but when it's quoted with your name in it.. you can click the little box to the right of your name inside the quote, and it will take you to what is being quoted.
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-19-2009 , 10:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by killer_kill
So I've bolded two parts of you post that I want to bring to attention to clear up for me as well as others.

#1 So we have a clear drooler at nl10 who "will show up with a lot of pairs" but on the same note he also has a lot of draws. So why are we trying bluff a fish off of a pair he likely doesnt want to fold anyways? He could also call you with a missed Ax draw, like A4cc or A5 etc. Your line doesn't even make any credible sense anyways to get any hand to fold. Do you make bluffs like this at nl400? (honest question)

vs a fish, yes. whilst he can easily show up with any pair from 22-TT (i assume he will be 3betting all of his bigger pairs), theres tons of gutshots that missed as well as flush draws. he may even fold some of his pairs though im not trying to make him do this. if you think in terms of card cominations, since he can have basically any two conceivable club combinations, as well as practically any gutter, thats a lot of hands. also remember that i have 5 high, so can never win at showdown. since i have literally zero showdown value, i have to push any chance to get him to fold that i can. the price i give myself on a blufff means he doesnt need to fold that often at all - he only needs to fold maybe 35% of the time or so. again, think in terms of card combinations - trying to get him to fold just over 1/3rd of his range on the river is easily showing a profit even if he calls with any pair and A high missed gutshots.

vs a reg, obviously not, but then this hand wouldnt play out the way it did vs the fish anyway since if i was barreling id bet bigger, and the regs range would be a lot more weighted to 66 type hands which i wouldnt expect to fold this river after they c/c the turn.


#2 68 vpip has nothing to do with what hand percentile he's playing. What I mean is vpip only measures hands that he's playing. It has no bearing on the strength of his actual hand. Like if I am running hot and can't stop getting aces/kings etc, then I may run 48 vpip over small sample, but that doesn't mean I'm playing half the possible hands in holdem. Unless I read that part wrong lol.

u might not have read it wrong, but you are misinterpreting it for sure. the only evidence i have to go on is the vpip i have in front of me. yes, u may get AA 10 hands in a row and thus have 100% vpip, but come on... that is like a ridiculous scenario and u need to think more logically about what the 68% vpip is likely to represent, especially given the fact that he didnt raise, and only called from his big blind vs a button open - its far far far more likely that he is just some random fish playing too many hands than it is to be an undercover tom dwan who is catching big pairs every hand... dont mean to sound patronising lol, but if you're jumping to conclusions it should be about the most likely scenario, which in this case is that he is just playing too many hands and wants to see flops. you can also follow that onto postflop, since what appears to be a loose passive fish preflop is probably going to be the same post flop - check/calling with any weak pair or draw.

Good so far but I just wanted to get that posted before I continued through this thread.
.
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-20-2009 , 03:35 AM
Hi Jack,

Loved the thread, read the whole thing through out the day and think i picked a few things to try out. Currently playing a little in 10nl but looking to progress through the levels. Enjoyed your videos and like your hand analysis and hope you will continue to post.

Cheers.
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-20-2009 , 03:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackwilcox
in order to help with future posts i make in here, id like some suggestions from people as to what you guys think micro stakes players biggest leaks are. or at least, what you guys maybe struggle with yourself the most.

so far, we we have discussed 3betting and 4betting a bit, which i can go over again and post some math for if people want that.

people said they would like to see me discuss "playing from the blinds". short of 3betting or folding (which is probably your most exploitive strategy at micro's), its hard to go into too much detail on but i can try and give some cool examples if people want.

cbetting/ barreling is maybe a topic i havent touched on which i could do if people want...

but yea, any suggestions of topics would be warmly welcomed.

in terms of video's im going to try and get camtasia sorted or a diff version, so i can put up some more video's soon, in the meantime though theres no reason not to continue this thread like it started, with lots of discussion about theory related stuff

i just stumblrd across this thread last nite after i was tired of playing. I quickly became addicted and have made it thru the first 36 pages and about 500+ posts.

It does become tiresome so the quote above got me to take a break to chime in.

First i would like to say to Jack what a good idea he had to do this and that i am very impressed with the level of thinking that he uses to analyze hands. I have taken many pages of notes on his hand range thoughts and other strategy analysis- very top notch compared to the usual crap posted in most forums.

As to the question what are the biggest leaks in the micro games, this is a no brainer hands down too much limping with second biggest leak cold calling raises. Since anybody can make any claim they want and typically do, the question is how do i know this?

Simple, i joined a training school about a year ago because all the books i read and time i spent playing was not as productive as i felt it should be, i.e. I was winning, but not as much as i thought i should.

Long story short after watching a few of the videos it was obvious what my main leaks were( this should answer the question what is better books or videos, many pros Daniel N and others openly admit they really learned how toplay when a fellow pro/menter leet them see their hole cards during play and then all the strategy made sense and they play drastically improved, but i digress). Once i virtually stopped limping and cold calling raise my win rate went from about 8 bg blinds/100 hands to between 25 and 35 big blinds/100 hands at 10NL games depending on which site, some sites are more passive which allow the higher win rate. Limps are replaced with a fold or a raise, CC are replaced with a fold or a 3 bet. The reason most players can't do this is simple lack of disipline or action junkie, if you need more action, play more tables, 4 tables is plenty to always have some action goin on. Virtually all the guys that insist on play more than 6 tables quickly expose themselves and are easy to read and exploit since they play a typical 16/14/4 type line.

FYI- i have now made about a dozen videos on beating micro NL for this site.
( the free camstudio sucks by the way, i too had my camtasia trial run out)

The TAG 23/21/8 with aggression by street of 4/4/2 I run works quite well up to 100NL or 200NL depending on site.

I feel i must comment on the stuff i have seen in the thread tru the first 500 or so posts, I have found all of Jacks analyses quite good and intend to use quite abit of it as i continue to improve my play and move up to play more at 200NL and then 400NL( i currently play mostly 100NL, although i do play lower when tired or trying a new strategy wrinkle). However most of it is just way over the head of most players regular or otherwise below 100NL.

The key to beating the lower games is quite simple playing solid values in position and value betting the table to death. Most of the players are so transparent that they might as well have their cards face up.

here is hint using HEM(way better than PT3 imo), the most important stats are vpip,pfr, #of hands played,aggr on flo, aggr on turn, aggr on river, 3 bet %, fold to 3 bet %, (i also have a pfr by position on my HUD) If you put these on your HUD and add some simple preflop reads, it will let you read most players like their cards were face up. The street aggressin is super critical to expose their betting patterns. Since most of the players really only care about their own cards, once you know their betting pattern you will own them.

While i am impressed by Jack" hand analyses and hand reading thought process, very few players are doing this versus you, so they are just playing the way they play, i.e. following their pattern. By his own admmission he started at 50NL and moved up from their and so never saw how really bad play is below that level. I have seen many players from higher levels admit they struggle moving down limits because they have a hard time adjusting to the ABC poker, I think jack's win rate at the lower game (10NL and 25NL is as far as i got in thread so far)reflects this problem. I have found most of the hands he posted interesting, but the key to outwitting opponents at any level is to be thinking 1 level higher than your opponent. If you are thinking at a level far above opponent, it really turns into more of a guess.

For example, if i am playing a total fish who chases with anything it is clear he doesnt care what i have, so i know what i have and am thinking about what he has. He is lev 1 thinking, i am lev 2 thinking. If i run into a guy who appears to at least be curious about what i have,lev 2, then i want to be lev 3, i.e. what does he think i have and so on. This is where the 3 betting light and 4 betting issues start to appear. But if the guy only cares what he has you can't 3 bet light because he doesnt care what you have he aint folding and you are typically crushed as Jack mentioned was happening to him in 25NL w/ JJ type hands. A 3 bet in 25NL and below is KK AA AK versus almost all players, the few with a wider range are easy to find with the 3 bet% stat and by obvservation.

I think i have blathered on enough for now, but i am sure i will have more thoughts as i progress thru the thread.

PS- i openly concede Jack is a better player than me, but since i have worked my way up thru the micro games i am confident that i have some insight into how to beat them at a higher rate than what Jack posted thus far. I also have no doubt he could beat the lower games at a far higher rate if he set his mind to it, but i think the boredom would kill him-

The evidence i think is clear, all the hands he posts are "interesting" to him, but interesting hands at lower limits are rare, what is more common and boring are hands where ak raises, kq calls and pays off 3 streets with TP 2nd best kicker, but that is where the money is made at low limits pure and simple. I play to fund my other hobbies, my kids college and as a distraction from lifes agravation, so i am ok with Borin$$$$$$$$$$$.
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-20-2009 , 08:36 PM
Alrighty then, i have finished my addiction to reading the thread, once again i applaud the effort and insight by Jack, one of the best threads i have seen.

i dont want rehash entire thread, but i did find a few post that i wanted to offer a few comments. Hopefully some people will find them useful, if not i am sure i will here about it-lol

jack said in 297
"i would say that if you are a nit post flop (rarely bluffing, just value betting), but have a really strong pre flop game (playing like 21/19 with a 5% 3bet), then you will be able to beat up to NL100, and probably even NL200 if you are in the right games"

very true, i am not quite a nit post flop, i would describe my style s ABC w a dash of extra aggression. Strong preflop play and solid values in position make postflop more simple- why you wouldnt want to make the game more i dont understand, but if you want less clarity try omaha


in post 298
i forgot who wrote
"I will only look to set mine a small pp when the intial raiser has a stack of
20x or more of his raise."

you really need them to have more like 30bb min in a non raised pot, in a raised pot you need raiser to have 20x the bet you are calling minimum if you are just looking for a set- the reasons are the same
sets dont always win big OUCH, sets dont always get action or as much as you want, you miss set 7/8 times. many micro players setmine vs stacks that dont give the implied odds needed, a very big leak

1 good place to set mine cheap is sb vs 1 or 2 limpers and a passive bb that wont squeeze, when you complete you get 5 or 7 to 1 on your complete with a 1/8 chance to flop a big hand and dont need to win much postflop to be profitable This is mostly a 50nl and lower move tho. I mixed about 60/40 squeeze and limp/complete in these situations

over about 100k hands from 10nl to 100nl win rate w/ pp 22-77 50 big blinds/100hands which i believe is same as Jack mentioned in post 306 f"or 22-77 my winrate is 25ptbb/100 " not quite sure on his notation ptbb/100.

bottom line all pp should be very profitable in long run or else you have major leak- in microgames (50nl and dn)playing small medium pp in 3 bet pot is big leak unless you are aggresser in hu pot or some droolers made mn raises and mn 3 bet and priced you in, if you raze sm/med pp and get 3 bet you are about 75/25 vs bigger pr/2 overs at these stakes- a very bad EV situation

for housekeeping gonna break comments into a few different posts

Last edited by hockeyfan; 12-20-2009 at 08:40 PM. Reason: clarity
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-20-2009 , 08:43 PM
v
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-20-2009 , 09:38 PM
i think i will take alook at a couple hands then give it a rest


Quote:
Originally Posted by str8 burnt
Heres an interesting spot i got in when 3 betting 33. Hero up


POKERSTARS GAME #30379009686: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.10/$0.25) - 2009/07/12 13:21:01 ET
Table 'Devota III' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Kurya ($25 in chips)
Seat 2: mindfake ($25 in chips)
Seat 3: FlippingAces ($30.65 in chips)
Seat 4: Danblaze ($34.40 in chips)
Seat 5: sccrguy1217 ($11.85 in chips)
Seat 6: Hopes08 ($29.30 in chips)
Hopes08: posts small blind $0.10
Kurya: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Danblaze [3d 3h]
mindfake: raises $0.75 to $1
FlippingAces: folds
Danblaze: raises $2.25 to $3.25
sccrguy1217: folds
Hopes08: folds
Kurya: folds
mindfake: calls $2.25
*** FLOP *** [5c 4h Kh]
mindfake: checks
Danblaze: bets $2.50
mindfake: raises $4 to $6.50
Danblaze: raises $4.50 to $11
mindfake: calls $4.50
*** TURN *** [5c 4h Kh] [Jd]
mindfake: bets $10.75 and is all-in
Danblaze said, "flat"
Danblaze said, "dam"
Danblaze said, "my hand is so bad"
Danblaze said, "but tht line is so week"
Danblaze: calls $10.75
*** RIVER *** [5c 4h Kh Jd] [9c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mindfake: shows [Ah 8h] (high card Ace)
Danblaze: shows [3d 3h] (a pair of Threes)
Danblaze collected $47.95 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $50.35 | Rake $2.40
Board [5c 4h Kh Jd 9c]
Seat 1: Kurya (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: mindfake showed [Ah 8h] and lost with high card Ace
this is a good example of a poorly played hand in micro games from start to finish by both players imo

fisrt, why 3 bet a utg raise w 33, was he a lag? does he fold to a 3 bet?
( we know from later in the hand NO!!!!!)
you dont say why, to disregard his utg position is not a good habit
( even if you knew he was LAGGY, 33 not the hand you want to go to war with)
the 3 bet is too small in my opinion
pot is 01.+0.25+1=1.35
you add 3.25, so pot is 4.50
he needs 2.25 to call, what hand that raises utg is going to fold getting 2/1?
do you really want to play 33 post flop?
does this guy play fit or fold to cbet him out if he has 2 bigs and misses?
( Again, we know from later in the hand NO!!!!!)


*** FLOP *** [5c 4h Kh]
mindfake: checks
Danblaze: bets $2.50

ok fine you took a shot

mindfake: raises $4 to $6.50

yikes!!!!!!!!!
Danblaze: raises $4.50 to $11

WTF!!!!!!!!!!!! do you know this guy to be a maniac?
mindfake: calls $4.50

Yikes again

*** TURN *** [5c 4h Kh] [Jd]
mindfake: bets $10.75 and is all-in

Again, do you know him to be a maniac?????

Danblaze said, "flat"
Danblaze said, "dam"
Danblaze said, "my hand is so bad"
Danblaze said, "but tht line is so week"

PS- i am not a fan of explaining my play to my opponents

pot is about 37 bucks by my math, getting 3.5/1

you need to be right 1 in 4.5 assuming you fade river if you ahead
(barring he has 22, he has at least 6 outs for 12% suckout with 2 overs
and possibly 9 more flush outs which would have given him about 28% suckout, i shall discount your 2 outs to improve for simplicity)

given the chances you are beat or will be on river
you need to have him on unpaired cards and be right closer to 1/4 times

Altho those are prety high odds, that seems pretty unlikely given the play of the hand unless you have some GREAT read on villian

Danblaze: calls $10.75

*** RIVER *** [5c 4h Kh Jd] [9c]

Seat 1: Kurya (big blind) folded before Flop
Danblaze: shows [3d 3h] (a pair of Threes)
Seat 2: mindfake showed [Ah 8h] and lost with high card Ace


A most fortunate outcome

PS- his play was equally horid w/ a8

this hand was a good way to add variance (mostly negative)to your results for sure, but niether player had any reason to believe they were best or that they could get the other player to fold, but both kept dumping $$$$$$$ into pot like they were printing it in their basement

Was it really your intention to play for stacks with 33? not exactly a winning strategy

Is this analyazed from a TAG perspective, yeppers, but this hand shows why TAG gets the cash at these levels, because i dont think this hand was an aberation for either player, given this style of play they will get crushed by semi observant TAGs in long run
Programming note, i said TAGs, not weak tight players that lags run over

having seen how villian played this hand there is no way you cant know his style going in, You dont beat lags by trying to out LAG them, pick solid values in position, try to isolate them if possible, and let them spew

yeah yeah i know Borin$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-20-2009 , 10:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackf1re
Here's an interesting hand and I'd like to hear your opinion Jack. Felt like playing FR today but that shouldn't really matter. I ran at 25/20, dunno if that influenced his play. Probably not. The 3bettor had 16/11 stats and I assume he's a reg. So his 3betting range should be pretty tight. But we're somewhat deepish and I think that I definitely have an edge over most of these guys especially in 3bet pots. So I called.

On both streets he more or less insta-fired. It really looked like AK to me but everytime I try to put someone on AK in these spots I end up getting shown Aces. What do you make of his line?

There's no sense in betting this big with AA or KK. But most of these regs are just really bad postflop and don't know why they're betting or how much they should bet.


Full Tilt Poker $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $10.33
BB: $10.00
UTG: $20.00
Hero (UTG+1): $15.88
MP1: $4.95
MP2: $8.27
CO: $19.90
BTN: $10.16

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG+1 with T T
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, CO raises to $1.40, 3 folds, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($2.95) 9 4 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $2.60, Hero calls $2.60

Turn: ($8.15) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $15.90, Hero folds

a couple quick thoughts, if you know vpip/pfr why no 3 bet % in hud?
not all TAGs r the same, big difference between 2% and 5% 3 bettors

but regardless in this hand calling 3 bets is generally a loser at these stakes w small /med prs, especially OOP (as jack said) A tag is generaly going to cbet any A or paint, can you call him down to the end with a scare card(s) for you? you folded to a cbet on turn on a 9492 brd after a flop call/spew.
If you cant call down on about the safest possible brd for cbets, how can you call down with paint/A on board. You basically played the TT like 33
(33 should fold preflop given stack sizes).

I think some 3 bet stats and some cbet stats in your hud would help, but most important have a plan for hands like these cuz they become more frequent as you move up. Pick a plan, stay with the plan for the entire hand barring some really scary brd, try the plan over many hands, if it works groovy, if not alter plan. personally i 4 bet (vs Lags)or fold preflop(calling =spewing especially oop), mostly fold.

If i 4 bet i am pretty much committed to get it all in so i just push flop since my stack is about the size of the pot, unless ultra scary borad i will just give up and hope to chk dn to end. Probably about an even EV play given i get enough folds to make up for when i get called, but i chalk it up to image and it gets my AA KK QQ type hands paid off more often, so thats poker give a little get a lot in the future.

but look at effect on win rate, 1 pr every 15 hands, so 7pp/100 hands,
, you spewed of 36 big blinds and folded with an overpr, you will get alot of chances to play pp in these type situations, if you play them this way even 1 time in 7 you hurt winrate BIG TIME. A fold preflop and you are out w 4 bb loss, a 4 bet cost about the same as you spewed, but might have taken down the pot preflop, either way better than what happened.

again this is a TAG perspective designed specifically to beat microgames
which was the title of the thread

i guess that wasnt quick, my apologies

fyi - barring any info, i put him on ak/jj/qq big bets generally mean i dont really want a call. qq jj fear an over hitting, ak fears ak not hitting

Last edited by hockeyfan; 12-20-2009 at 10:23 PM. Reason: clarity
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-21-2009 , 08:40 PM
Hockeyfan:

Good contributions in general, thanks. I think the best point you made was about thinking one (and only one) level above your opponent. Thinking on level 3 is irrelevant if he is on 1.

Re: TAG v. LAG, and being nitty post-flop:
I find the optimum depends a lot on opponents.

Some helmet-wearing microstakers will call any PFR, and fold to 3/4 C-bets. Thus you should just raise to 6BB preflop, c-bet 1/3 pot, and actually look at your cards and position only if called or raised on the flop. Others will not fold to a flop bet, but will to a turn bet. Others will call down 3 streets of overbets with any pair, but never bet without at least 2-pair.

You should be a LAG/LP if you can check behind draws and get action once they obviously hit. You should be TP if your opponent is a maniac - so you decide when the chips go in.

When possible, take a look at what type of fish they are, and use the correct bait. I completely agree that your default style should be TAG. Be patient rather than making high variance plays.

Lastly, I think 3B stats take too long to normalize at microstakes. How many hands do you need to believe in your 3B stats?
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-21-2009 , 10:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aixelsyd
Hockeyfan:

Good contributions in general, thanks. I think the best point you made was about thinking one (and only one) level above your opponent. Thinking on level 3 is irrelevant if he is on 1.

Re: TAG v. LAG, and being nitty post-flop:
I find the optimum depends a lot on opponents.

Some helmet-wearing microstakers will call any PFR, and fold to 3/4 C-bets. Thus you should just raise to 6BB preflop, c-bet 1/3 pot, and actually look at your cards and position only if called or raised on the flop. Others will not fold to a flop bet, but will to a turn bet. Others will call down 3 streets of overbets with any pair, but never bet without at least 2-pair.

You should be a LAG/LP if you can check behind draws and get action once they obviously hit. You should be TP if your opponent is a maniac - so you decide when the chips go in.

When possible, take a look at what type of fish they are, and use the correct bait. I completely agree that your default style should be TAG. Be patient rather than making high variance plays.

Lastly, I think 3B stats take too long to normalize at microstakes. How many hands do you need to believe in your 3B stats?

all good points, that is where the aggr by streets is so useful, you can easily and quickly adjust to them to max value vs different opponents and there styles. I realize the 3 bet stat can be the most variable in short term , but most micro players are so pattern predictable that the few times a guy gets slapped with the deck and bloat their 3 bet stats is far outwieghed by overall averaging of the samples.

by that i mean you wont run into 7 out of ten players that have bloated 3 bet stats all at the same time, if 1 guy ran hot, over the aggregate of all the hands of all 10 players that in general they are pretty close to accurate on average. So i have to be pretty unlucky to run into heater boy w/ qq when he has his 4 th pair of AA or KK in a short run of hands. A rough approximation, sure but their is no perfect info in poker so i am fine with the approximation. Bottom line 50 hands(at a passive table) or a 100 hands(at an aggr table) give me about 80% confidence in accuracy. If a guy hasnt 3 bet more than 4,5, or 6 times in 200 hands, they just arent goin to ever 3 bet very much at 6 max table. Throwing a bit of statistical analyses 1 sigma covers 66% of likely outcomes, so if i have 10 players at 50 hands i have 500 hands, assuming passive tables there are so many mandatory 3 bet spots that if guys arent 3 betting, they just dont do it. If they do 3 bet, they will have found spots to do it. At an aggr table you can frequently get beat to the 3 bet and have to 4 bet or fold, mostly fold. Do i think 500 hand captures more than 2/3 of the likely plays- roughly yep, and a bit more so hence my estimate of 80% conference (i assume roughly a normal distribution of cards to the various players)
My apologies to my college stats professor-LOL

Really the only thing i was looking for below 50 nl was mr Never3bet (2% or less), and mr Maniac 10% +. It really helps with qq,jj,TT, 99 hands when you get played back at. I use my pfr by position stats to see if they raise/ 3 bet in LP or blinds indicating some situational light value 3 bets or squeeze 3 bets. The combo of stats really exposes their general style in 20-30 hands very well. I have watched the stats of newbie opponents i havent seen before and they rarely change much from the first 30 hands or so, try watching them. Tags just dont play 15 out of 30 hands in a run at micro, lags dont not play 15 out of 30 hands at micro. They cant help themselves.


i added fold to 3 bet % and 4 bet range when i got to 50nl and i find it useful in 50nl, 100nl, 200nl, but it certainly takes a while to get stats a statistician would be comfortable with, but it is poker so you are never going to have 3 sigma confidence in any decision.

as for laggines in lp, oh ya , my pfr looks about 12/16/25/40/50 from utg to button on average. this changes abit up or down depending on table dynamics/ opponents style/ opponents relative position to me, ie looser vs nitty blinds or a bit more value vs aggro blinds

i also have Cbet call % for flop and turn to see who folds to cbet or to a double barrel

Last edited by hockeyfan; 12-21-2009 at 10:24 PM. Reason: clarity
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-24-2009 , 03:10 PM
Thanks again.
I totally agree you can usually tell how they will play very early. I love sitting down and seeing trash talk and tilt issues in the chat, and a player who limps the first 3 hands and has a name of a sexual organ followed by 69.

I think your point about 3B stats is a good one that people may miss. At the micros, you can largely set people into two camps: 1) only 3B QQ+ and AK, or 2) 3B other things in addition. If they are in group 2, you need a big(ish) sample to determine if their range is balanced or not (great discussion by Jack on this in this post and in his videos).


Do you have a squeeze stat on your HUD? If so, what?
I use 3B, and fold to steal, but it may not be as good at determining if they are squeezing lightly as what you are using.
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-26-2009 , 12:28 PM
I've got a question for Jack and any other seasoned veterans who post in here. Is it ever correct in your view to play suited connectors from early position? For the purpose of this question, I'm including 65s up to KQs. I've heard and read that it's important to balance your range by playing these hands, so it's not painfully obvious what your hand is when you raise pf from early position. So observant villains won't think, "well he raised from utg/mp, that means he must have a pocket pair or AQ+ and I'll adjust my play according to that." I posted a 25NL hand in UNL the other day where I raised UTG with 67s and the replies I got all consisted of, "fold pre". So, how important is balancing your range really? Likewise, is it also important to have a balanced 3-betting range so it's also not painfully obvious what your hand is in 3-bet pots? I've read a lot of conflicting stuff, some people say you don't need to worry about balancing ranges, just play straightforward and you'll be fine etc, others say its a crucial skill. Would really like to hear any opinions on this.
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-26-2009 , 12:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rdysn5
I've got a question for Jack and any other seasoned veterans who post in here. Is it ever correct in your view to play suited connectors from early position? For the purpose of this question, I'm including 65s up to KQs. I've heard and read that it's important to balance your range by playing these hands, so it's not painfully obvious what your hand is when you raise pf from early position. So observant villains won't think, "well he raised from utg/mp, that means he must have a pocket pair or AQ+ and I'll adjust my play according to that." I posted a 25NL hand in UNL the other day where I raised UTG with 67s and the replies I got all consisted of, "fold pre". So, how important is balancing your range really? Likewise, is it also important to have a balanced 3-betting range so it's also not painfully obvious what your hand is in 3-bet pots? I've read a lot of conflicting stuff, some people say you don't need to worry about balancing ranges, just play straightforward and you'll be fine etc, others say its a crucial skill. Would really like to hear any opinions on this.
At NL25, you rarely see anyone actually trying to read you, so why balance yourself when no one is exploiting you?
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-26-2009 , 01:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rdysn5
So, how important is balancing your range really? Likewise, is it also important to have a balanced 3-betting range so it's also not painfully obvious what your hand is in 3-bet pots?
tbh you should never make any play where the primary reason is 'balance'.

raising 65s utg should be because you think you can play it profitably. 3betting weaker hands, again, should be because you think its profitable based on fold equity to do so.

i would personally try to be a total nit out of position and stick to raising A9s+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+, and KJo+ as well as all pairs from utg at any limit really. 3betting is totally up to you what hands u choose but i guess you should 'aim' to be 3betting somewhere between 7-11% overall. i say 'aim', thats just because if u are 3betting less than 7% you are missing profitable opportunties to do so, and if ur 3betting more than 11% then ur probably a bit of a spew monkey. obviously most of your 3bets should occur vs players who open from late position and are suitably loose.

whether u choose to 3bet small pairs, suited connectors, or trashy broadway hands are up to u. different people find different things work better for them.
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-26-2009 , 02:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aixelsyd
Thanks again.
I totally agree you can usually tell how they will play very early. I love sitting down and seeing trash talk and tilt issues in the chat, and a player who limps the first 3 hands and has a name of a sexual organ followed by 69.

I think your point about 3B stats is a good one that people may miss. At the micros, you can largely set people into two camps: 1) only 3B QQ+ and AK, or 2) 3B other things in addition. If they are in group 2, you need a big(ish) sample to determine if their range is balanced or not (great discussion by Jack on this in this post and in his videos).


Do you have a squeeze stat on your HUD? If so, what?
I use 3B, and fold to steal, but it may not be as good at determining if they are squeezing lightly as what you are using.

i just use the squeeze stat from hem, pfr %, and look at their positional pfr as well, if they are squeezing more than 3-4% i figure they are in light pretty often, so i will typically just stay out of the middle of his squeeze w mediocre/weak hands rather anything too fancy.
I might try a smooth call w AA vs a lag to my right if i saw guy on left rereaise/ squeeze him before and get him to fold preflop, but it would be rare.

as for the grp2 higher 3 bet range it is mostly 88-jj, Aq-At, kj kq versus lp raisers who are loose stealers, all value raises vs typicall aggro blind stealer. notice these hands all ahead of a 35%+ blind stealer raise range

Last edited by hockeyfan; 12-26-2009 at 02:24 PM. Reason: clarity
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-26-2009 , 02:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rdysn5
I've got a question for Jack and any other seasoned veterans who post in here. Is it ever correct in your view to play suited connectors from early position? For the purpose of this question, I'm including 65s up to KQs. I've heard and read that it's important to balance your range by playing these hands, so it's not painfully obvious what your hand is when you raise pf from early position. So observant villains won't think, "well he raised from utg/mp, that means he must have a pocket pair or AQ+ and I'll adjust my play according to that." I posted a 25NL hand in UNL the other day where I raised UTG with 67s and the replies I got all consisted of, "fold pre". So, how important is balancing your range really? Likewise, is it also important to have a balanced 3-betting range so it's also not painfully obvious what your hand is in 3-bet pots? I've read a lot of conflicting stuff, some people say you don't need to worry about balancing ranges, just play straightforward and you'll be fine etc, others say its a crucial skill. Would really like to hear any opinions on this.

While you do want to mix your range up a bit, the key is a bit. Most micro players read it in a book or whatever and raze oop with way too many sc/weak hands etc. Playing oop sucks, if you look at the players w/ best win rates at 25nl and up most have range from tight to very tight utg pfr but loose in lp, you are way better off mixing up range in position. I prefer raises w med/small pp in ep as a mix, you hit big (set) or can get off cheap if no set or get 3 bet pf. The hands you hit w/ 56s type hands are too many draws, pr w draw, small 2 pr, all off which are far more profitable and easy to play in position, so why not play them in position?


gl
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote
12-28-2009 , 10:37 AM
OP, only had a second to come back an check out your thread so I haven's had time to read, but what stakes are you at? How much are you up/down at this point? And last, how many hands have you put in since you began your quest??

Thanks a lot, and Best of Luck!
NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit Quote

      
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