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Old 11-15-2009, 03:25 AM   #726
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Originally Posted by jackwilcox View Post
think my fold to 3bet averages out at about 70% or something....

vs someone who doesnt 3bet much theres not much u can do obviously as their 3betting range doesnt contain enough bluffs to 4bet light. so u can only play strong value hands really. since they arent 3betting much though, u make your money from them folding to the original raise too often.


balancing your range is something thats kind of over rated.... its an awesome idea in theory, but in practice its costing you money most of the time since everyone is exploitable in some way and balancing your range, by definition, doesnt exploit anything.
Balancing your ranges in this context is protecting the times that you're exploiting villains 3betting tendencies. Either by having a balanced 4b range or a balanced calling range, is this right?
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Old 11-15-2009, 03:35 AM   #727
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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oh ok, gotcha.

all very very encouraging to hear somebody say the midstakes is very beatable, since i've heard a lot of talk about the games toughening up over the years. so ty for that
well im not trying to sound arrogant. its not like i crush them or anything. altho i probs would have a lot better winrate if i played less tables...

they probs have toughened up, idk cos i wasnt playing mid-stakes a year ago or anything. however 'tough' they get though, everyone has leaks.


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Balancing your ranges in this context is protecting the times that you're exploiting villains 3betting tendencies. Either by having a balanced 4b range or a balanced calling range, is this right?
well yea but if villain doesnt 3bet often enough then you cant 4bet bluff ever. it just wont be profitable (u can work out %'s yourself if u like its not hard to really). you can balance a flatting range by mixing in some monsters though yea, but vs tagnits its gonna be better to get it in preflop before the flop comes Kxx/Axx and they shut down with their JJ or whatever
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Old 11-15-2009, 03:57 AM   #728
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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balancing your range is something thats kind of over rated.... its an awesome idea in theory, but in practice its costing you money most of the time since everyone is exploitable in some way and balancing your range, by definition, doesnt exploit anything.
So, so true, if you put your hands on a line, you can assign your range to your bluffs based almost solely on their equity and plug leaks/annoy players at the same time. For instance, say you're in position, and say you're calling with pocket pairs, suited connectors and dominating hands like AK, AQ etc. If you assign your flop bluffs entirely to hands with little shown down value and no pot equity, i.e small pocket pairs 66-22, you'll probably make more over the long run than by calling and then folding with them. If you assign your floats to hands with a little showdown value and a little pot equity, like 2nd or 3rd pair with BDFDs, you'll actually be able to either improve often enough or show down often enough to profit.

It's sick how many villains "float" 66 on KQ5s and then fold to a double barrel compared to floating 54ss, because you're floating to steal, not showdown and in 66's case their range has ton of equity/value while you have no pot equity. If every player just turned a pocket pair into a bluff re-raise instead of a float every time they "felt like calling" they'd probably be way tougher to play against even tho' their range was polarized instead of balanced.

Edit: As an aside, what are you "fluffing" your range with for 30% CO VPIP? Like A6o and KTo type hands or 63s and Q8s type hands? Or are you opening like 20 something % and it's not filtering your 3bets/calls.

Last edited by breathweapon; 11-15-2009 at 04:03 AM.
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Old 11-15-2009, 06:15 AM   #729
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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pm me.




ok, well i mean u can find examples of using the fold equity equation by searching on the forums. its pretty simple idea, so hopefully wont cause you too much trouble to understand. u can also use pokerstove to help plug in various scenario's.

if u have cardrunners account, theres a vid uploaded by brian townsend (sbrugby) a few weeks/ months ago about a thing called combinatorics. thats really good. theres probs some on stox poker too, i duno about deuces cracked.

dont try and do tooooo much maths or anything, its just good to see some of your ideas expressed purely in a formula so u can prove to yourself that you're thinking along the right lines.
thanks for the comments. i have access to both cardrunners and stox through trulyfreepokertraining.com. what are the names of the videos? i could not the sbrugby one you mentioned. thanks again mate.
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Old 11-15-2009, 06:50 AM   #730
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Edit: As an aside, what are you "fluffing" your range with for 30% CO VPIP? Like A6o and KTo type hands or 63s and Q8s type hands? Or are you opening like 20 something % and it's not filtering your 3bets/calls.
its not filtered at all, but i guess my 'fluff' hands are more likely to be some kind of suited connector-ish hands than A6o. im opening any two broadways anyway as standard.

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thanks for the comments. i have access to both cardrunners and stox through trulyfreepokertraining.com. what are the names of the videos? i could not the sbrugby one you mentioned. thanks again mate.
sbrugby - high stakes friday: combinatorics part 1 - 04/17/09
" " - " " " : " " part 2 - 05/29/09
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Old 11-16-2009, 10:47 AM   #731
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Uploaded the vid here:

http://www.pokertrikz.com/videos/189-2/

Thanks!
watched your video. you seem like you know what you're doing for the most part - i have nothing to say regarding your cbetting/ value betting.

however u r waaaaaaaaaaay too tight from the button. saw u folding hands like Q7o and 52s etc... man u should really be aiming to open top 70% of hands minimum from the btn at 10nl. no one is playing back at u nearly enough. 70% isnt even loose. stealing blinds is basically the quickest way to see an inrease in your bb/100.

also, the JJ hand early in the video just made me kinda go 'wtf r u doing' lol.... either 4bet/call or fold preflop, calling is by far the worst option, and should be a losing play if your opponent is even halfway decent. if u think he is so tight that he isnt 3betting TT/ AQ then you should be folding. if u think he is 3betting those hands, then u should be 4bet/getting it in. calling makes no sense.

anyone remotely capable of hand reading (e.g. a reg) will plug u straight on TT/JJ type hand in that spot and therefore by able to play perfectly vs u.

also, once u call the 3bet, why r u leading T67r?? i assume your plan was stack off on non A or K flops?? (i know there was audio, but my speakers wouldnt play it loud enough to hear ). i think thats a mistake that a lot of micro players make. no one is stacking off with AK postflop in a 3bet pot if they dont hit top pair.

if you're going to do it, at least c/r to pick up a cbet, although im not sure that it shows a profit even then vs his entire range...


but yea... main point to make is that you're insanely tight on the button and need to loosen up incredibly.
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Old 11-16-2009, 11:06 AM   #732
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

Alot of pages to read here,without getting to far into it what stakes you at now and how many hands you been able to get in so far?
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Old 11-16-2009, 11:54 AM   #733
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Originally Posted by jackwilcox View Post
watched your video. you seem like you know what you're doing for the most part - i have nothing to say regarding your cbetting/ value betting.

however u r waaaaaaaaaaay too tight from the button. saw u folding hands like Q7o and 52s etc... man u should really be aiming to open top 70% of hands minimum from the btn at 10nl. no one is playing back at u nearly enough. 70% isnt even loose. stealing blinds is basically the quickest way to see an inrease in your bb/100.

also, the JJ hand early in the video just made me kinda go 'wtf r u doing' lol.... either 4bet/call or fold preflop, calling is by far the worst option, and should be a losing play if your opponent is even halfway decent. if u think he is so tight that he isnt 3betting TT/ AQ then you should be folding. if u think he is 3betting those hands, then u should be 4bet/getting it in. calling makes no sense.

anyone remotely capable of hand reading (e.g. a reg) will plug u straight on TT/JJ type hand in that spot and therefore by able to play perfectly vs u.

also, once u call the 3bet, why r u leading T67r?? i assume your plan was stack off on non A or K flops?? (i know there was audio, but my speakers wouldnt play it loud enough to hear ). i think thats a mistake that a lot of micro players make. no one is stacking off with AK postflop in a 3bet pot if they dont hit top pair.

if you're going to do it, at least c/r to pick up a cbet, although im not sure that it shows a profit even then vs his entire range...


but yea... main point to make is that you're insanely tight on the button and need to loosen up incredibly.
Thanks a ton! Especially for the JJ analysis.
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Old 11-16-2009, 03:45 PM   #734
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Alot of pages to read here,without getting to far into it what stakes you at now and how many hands you been able to get in so far?
3/6 with a bit of 5/10 mixed in. the actual idea for the thread kinda fell apart as i re-deposited on stars so that i could game select for mid-stakes across both stars and full tilt
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:03 PM   #735
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

Jack,
one of the most common leaks I've seen from players at 5nl, is that they simply can't wait to get all their money in the pot when they have a big overpair and the flop consists of three low cards. These are my favorite player types to set mine against. Say the flop is 235 and the other guy has KK. He bets, I raise, he insta shoves, I fistpump snap call. He can't wait to get all his money in the pot as a 9% underdog when I have 22, 33 or 55. Do you see much of this at the stakes you play at? Also would you consider the guy holding KK in this example, to have a leak? Assuming he does this frequently with overpairs.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:19 PM   #736
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

kinda depends on who raises him in your example. at 5nl u can get people playing like super nits who only raises with 2 pair+, u can also get maniacs who will raise 77 there because they have an overpair...

at mid-stakes, no one is folding an overpair on 235 or something because theres a frequent amount of bluff/ semi-bluff raising the flop and sets are hard to make. it sounds pretty fishy and spewy, but its generally a mistake to fold an overpair on the flop 100bb deep at mid-stakes games just because they play so aggro
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Old 11-16-2009, 05:00 PM   #737
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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kinda depends on who raises him in your example. at 5nl u can get people playing like super nits who only raises with 2 pair+, u can also get maniacs who will raise 77 there because they have an overpair...

at mid-stakes, no one is folding an overpair on 235 or something because theres a frequent amount of bluff/ semi-bluff raising the flop and sets are hard to make. it sounds pretty fishy and spewy, but its generally a mistake to fold an overpair on the flop 100bb deep at mid-stakes games just because they play so aggro
Is that because mid/high stakes regs are willing to stack off their AK/AQ with 10 to 11 outs vs any pocket pair and turn their range into either a " you're racing or you're crushed" decision? I've seen so many players stack off their with like 88, I'm pretty much never folding JJ-99 their as the PFR. Getting it in with A5, A3, A2 seems like pretty good value to IMO.
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Old 11-16-2009, 05:03 PM   #738
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Is that because mid/high stakes regs are willing to stack off their AK/AQ with 10 to 11 outs vs any pocket pair and turn their range into either a " you're racing or you're crushed" decision? I've seen so many players stack off their with like 88, I'm pretty much never folding JJ-99 their as the PFR. Getting it in with A5, A3, A2 seems like pretty good value to IMO.
The more that people bluff, the wider your value range should go(to include most overpairs and not just sets). And bluff hands with good equity(the Ax hands in that example)

It's the same concept with as with preflop 3bet/4bet/5bet mini-games.
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:15 PM   #739
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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The more that people bluff, the wider your value range should go(to include most overpairs and not just sets). And bluff hands with good equity(the Ax hands in that example)

It's the same concept with as with preflop 3bet/4bet/5bet mini-games.
Granted, but middling pairs have really, really bad equity there vs Hero's range. If Villain raises the flop and we 3bet he's crushed or flipping, so isn't it easier to just call the flop and shove over the Turn bet when Hero's equity has dropped and villain's representing a stronger range vs a weaker range? I can't see how it's profitable for Villain to call the 3bet with out any equity vs the top of our range and with only 60% vs the bottom. Like, what is that raise folding out other than hands he crushes?
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:24 PM   #740
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Granted, but middling pairs have really, really bad equity there vs Hero's range. If Villain raises the flop and we 3bet he's crushed or flipping, so isn't it easier to just call the flop and shove over the Turn bet when Hero's equity has dropped and villain's representing a stronger range vs a weaker range? I can't see how it's profitable for Villain to call the 3bet with out any equity vs the top of our range and with only 60% vs the bottom. Like, what is that raise folding out other than hands he crushes?
I don't see what you're arguing. I actually think that you don't understand what a 3bet is? The flop goes:

Villain bets. Hero raises(this is a 2bet). Villain re-raises(3bet).

Villain wants to have a flop 3bet range of super strong made hands, bluffs, and middle hands(overpairs). With hands like KK, he's making a raise for value against your bluff catchers and to get you to fold your dead equity when you semi-bluff raise. At any stakes below MSNL, this isn't necessary and you're right - villain isn't accomplishing much from 3betting his over pairs.
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:55 PM   #741
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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I don't see what you're arguing. I actually think that you don't understand what a 3bet is? The flop goes:

Villain bets. Hero raises(this is a 2bet). Villain re-raises(3bet).

Villain wants to have a flop 3bet range of super strong made hands, bluffs, and middle hands(overpairs). With hands like KK, he's making a raise for value against your bluff catchers and to get you to fold your dead equity when you semi-bluff raise. At any stakes below MSNL, this isn't necessary and you're right - villain isn't accomplishing much from 3betting his over pairs.
Donk, raise and shove?

Here's what I'm saying,

1) Hero raises UTG with AKss, Villain calls on the button with 88. The Flop brings 532ccs. Hero bets (1bet) and Villain raises (2bet) after which hero shoves (3bet) and Villain just turned a made hand into a bluff when he could've called the flop, evaluated the turn and either gone to showdown or bluff shoved/value shoved the turn after his opponent's range loses equity and his range looks stronger.

Here's what you're saying,

2) Hero raises on the button with AKss, Villain calls in the big blind with 88. The flop brings 532. Villain leads (1bet) and hero raises (2bet) after which villain shoves (3bet)

In situation 1) Villain turning his showdown value into a bluff is really, really bad vs Hero's range while in situation 2) Villain turning his showdown value into a bluff is creating "aggressive dead money" because Hero's range is highly, highly weighted towards air or draws (because people who raise/call donks are ridiculously ubalanced) and villain is closing the action.

My argument is turning a middling PP into a bluff on a 3 to a wheel board is the last thing you want to do IP while turning A5, A3 or A2 into a semi-bluff just absolutely crushes Hero's 3bet range.
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:57 PM   #742
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Donk, raise and shove?

Here's what I'm saying,

1) Hero raises UTG with AKss, Villain calls on the button with 88. The Flop brings 532ccs. Hero bets (1bet) and Villain raises (2bet) after which hero shoves (3bet) and Villain just turned a made hand into a bluff when he could've called the flop, evaluated the turn and either gone to showdown or bluff shoved/value shoved the turn after his opponent's range loses equity and his range looks stronger.

Here's what you're saying,

2) Hero raises on the button with AKss, Villain calls in the big blind with 88. The flop brings 532. Villain leads (1bet) and hero raises (2bet) after which villain shoves (3bet)

In situation 1) Villain turning his showdown value into a bluff is really, really bad vs Hero's range while in situation 2) Villain turning his showdown value into a bluff is creating "aggressive dead money" because Hero's range is highly, highly weighted towards air or draws (because people who raise/call donks are ridiculously ubalanced) and villain is closing the action.

My argument is turning a middling PP into a bluff on a 3 to a wheel board is the last thing you want to do IP while turning A5, A3 or A2 into a semi-bluff just absolutely crushes Hero's 3bet range.
lol

I'll let jack respond to you. You're not thinking about/comprehending what I'm saying.

Search for range merging, that's what cbetting/3betting hands like KK on 235 does. It's not something that's necessary until you're vs high level thinkers.
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Old 11-16-2009, 08:13 PM   #743
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

Great thread Jack. I remember playing/talking to you at 100nl not so long when i was having a brutal session. So sick that your a 400nl reg and i have had to move down mainly because of tilt issues. What advice would you give on ways to avoid/stop tilt?, fwiw i have had numerous nights were i have tilted off $1000+ and i feel this has really hampered my progress. Makes me feel even worse when i think that if i didnt tilt and worked hard on my game i could be somewere close to were you are. I think when i play my A game i can easily beat 100nl+
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Old 11-17-2009, 12:28 AM   #744
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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lol

I'll let jack respond to you. You're not thinking about/comprehending what I'm saying.

Search for range merging, that's what cbetting/3betting hands like KK on 235 does. It's not something that's necessary until you're vs high level thinkers.
Hero's actions aren't what I'm questioning, of course hero's stacking KK on 532, what I'm questioning is why Villain would take a hand with showdown value on a flop when Hero is going to be either A) Semi-bluffing AK-AJ with the rest of his range, giving Villain's call massive RIO or C) barreling 2, probably 3 streets where 88 picks off a polarized range.

Yeah, of course Hero has to stack a wider range on the flop when the Villain is bluffing or semi-bluffing more, duh - I'm just trying to figure out why you'd turn a made hand into a bluff in position vs a wheel board when you know your Hero is stacking a range with a huge equity advantage against you.

Turning 88 there into a bluff makes no sense, where turning A5 into a semi-bluff makes a ton of sense - just stove it.
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Old 11-17-2009, 12:52 AM   #745
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Yeah, of course Hero has to stack a wider range on the flop when the Villain is bluffing or semi-bluffing more, duh - I'm just trying to figure out why you'd turn a made hand into a bluff in position vs a wheel board when you know your Hero is stacking a range with a huge equity advantage against you.
Bold statement is what I'm saying. You first asked why someone would stack off with KK on a 235 flop here:
"These are my favorite player types to set mine against. Say the flop is 235 and the other guy has KK. He bets, I raise, he insta shoves, I fistpump snap call. He can't wait to get all his money in the pot as a 9% underdog when I have 22, 33 or 55."
Other than that... I don't know what you're talking about? Obviously turning 88 into a bluff is unprofitable because it's unlikely to fold out better and has terrible equity vs like AJo. Why are you even saying this?

Quote:
Turning 88 there into a bluff makes no sense, where turning A5 into a semi-bluff makes a ton of sense - just stove it.
Again.... okay?
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Old 11-17-2009, 01:06 AM   #746
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Bold statement is what I'm saying. You first asked why someone would stack off with KK on a 235 flop here:
"These are my favorite player types to set mine against. Say the flop is 235 and the other guy has KK. He bets, I raise, he insta shoves, I fistpump snap call. He can't wait to get all his money in the pot as a 9% underdog when I have 22, 33 or 55."
Other than that... I don't know what you're talking about? Obviously turning 88 into a bluff is unprofitable because it's unlikely to fold out better and has terrible equity vs like AJo. Why are you even saying this?



Again.... okay?
You're confusing me and the OP, OP said is stacking KK on 532 a leak? Jack said no, it's not a leak because mid-stakes players are bluffing 77 etc. there. And then I said why would any player turn 77 (or 88 excuse me) into a bluff there vs a 3bet range that's impossible to call on the flop but possible to call on the river?

Ok, so we've established turning made hands into bluffs on wheel draw boards is bad when AK-J or A5, 3 or 2 has equity for shoving, guess we're finished.
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Old 11-17-2009, 01:15 AM   #747
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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You're confusing me and the OP, OP said is stacking KK on 532 a leak? Jack said no, it's not a leak because mid-stakes players are bluffing 77 etc. there. And then I said why would any player turn 77 (or 88 excuse me) into a bluff there vs a 3bet range that's impossible to call on the flop but possible to call on the river?

Ok, so we've established turning made hands into bluffs on wheel draw boards is bad when AK-J or A5, 3 or 2 has equity for shoving, guess we're finished.
Someone asked if stacking off with KK on that board was a leak. I thought that was you.

And I have absolutely no idea where you pulled 88 from? (Was out of nowhere afaik). Actually, it looks like you took Jacks 77* comment out of context. He was saying that some villains go "omg over pair with 77 on 235". Not that they were bluffing with it. Just ******ed.
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Old 11-17-2009, 09:34 AM   #748
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Great thread Jack. I remember playing/talking to you at 100nl not so long when i was having a brutal session. So sick that your a 400nl reg and i have had to move down mainly because of tilt issues. What advice would you give on ways to avoid/stop tilt?, fwiw i have had numerous nights were i have tilted off $1000+ and i feel this has really hampered my progress. Makes me feel even worse when i think that if i didnt tilt and worked hard on my game i could be somewere close to were you are. I think when i play my A game i can easily beat 100nl+
urm... dont tilt??

lol not much help i know.... if u have a deuces cracked membership then download and listen to the tommy angelo series on there. thats the most amazing thing i can recommend about dealing with tilt - helped me a ton
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Old 11-17-2009, 09:41 AM   #749
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

Quote:
Originally Posted by breathweapon View Post
Jack said no, it's not a leak because mid-stakes players are bluffing 77 etc. there.

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no i didnt.... i said maniacs at 10nl might raise just because they have an overpair and go "ZOMG i have the nuts!"

mid-stakes regs may be raising like TT+ if they flatted pre, because if u cbet 235 with 77 yourself then get raised you're probably going to call. no villain would be turning a mid pair into a bluff by raising there because its a real stupid time to bluff lol.

maybe 235 was a bad example actually, i just plucked that example out of thin air in like a second...



better example is something like Th6h3c or so. on that board, villain may be raising a ton of semi-bluffing hands that cant profitably call but cant fold out (marginally) better hands... stuff like 78cc might raise as it will fold out AKo or so. so stacking off with JJ+ on that board is pretty standard/ obvious
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Old 12-10-2009, 01:44 AM   #750
aixelsyd
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

Hey, I'm still not done reading through the whole thread. I have been reading steadily for a while and just watched the first video (unless there is only one, in which case I watched THE video).

I just wanted to say thanks for posting this thread and making the video(s). Very helpful, to hear your thinking. There are many little things that you don't even realize you are teaching that are very helpful.
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