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Old 10-30-2009, 04:15 PM   #676
jackwilcox
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

havent updated this thread for a ridiculously long time - ended up having essentially a 6 week break from poker with no access to internet! thankfully thats resolved now, so i can get some vids up soon for u guys.

anyways, i wanted to make a big post kinda... im gonna split it into 2 parts tho: 1 part will be about bankroll management and the second will be a little bit about tilt control. arguably the 2 most important concepts in becoming a successful poker player, since without applying both of these principles, your ability becomes irrelevant - even if durrrr played when he was tilted or when he wasnt bankrolled, ineveitably he'd lose money.

they are a bit philosophical, although the references i make, i think, are totally valid and very useful in analysing the concepts in a new light to what you might have heard/ read before.



so this post is part 1: Bankroll Management

definition: managing your bankroll simply means making sure theres enough money in your account such that you can cope with variance and not go busto.

variance cant be controlled, and it will happen to you at some stage so you need to be prepared for it. every time you sit down at any poker table and buy in (either cash game or tournament) you're putting part, or all, of your bankroll at risk. therefore, bankroll management extends beyond just the stakes you're playing. bankroll management includes game selection.



common misconceptions that i always hear....

"i have x amount of buyins for the stake above me, im going to play some higher games"

"i dont need to game select below stake x because everyones fishy and i should be able to beat them"

reality: just because you are suddenly rolled for Xnl doesnt mean you should sit at any table you see fit. you should know that you are going to be a favourite in that line up, and have a positive expectation in the game. dont just sit because theres a game running, or because you want to play higher. similarly, just because you find a lot of fish at a certain limit doesnt mean everyone is. theres regs at all limits. sometimes those regs congregate at 1 table, maybe accidently, but the point is that those tables are ones to avoid. sitting at those isnt +EV and is costing you money (because you could be making more at another table).



one of my housemates was playing 5nl on stars yesterday as he's been grinding up a roll from $35 that i gave him.
he was 4-tabling, and i said to him "why are u at these tables?". he didnt have any answer, he said just sat at them randomly.
i said "do you not think you should be looking for fish?". he said "everyone at 5nl is a fish".

for a few minutes he had to make a phone call so i played for him - one of the tables was 4 handed. the 3 others were all full stacked and had auto-reload on (tell-tale signs of regs). hardly, "fish" by any stretch.
clearly playing in this game is no where near as +EV as playing in games where you actively seek out fish (it may even be -EV). blanketing the entire community at a certain stake as "fish" is just pure ignorance.




now.... ignore poker for a minute, and contemplate this idea:

you decide to set up a business that invests in stocks and shares, or buys equity in various business. every investment you make is naturally in the hope that you will make a good return (thus the term, ROI - return on investment). you have $x to invest at the start of your business. if you lose all that money your business is bankrupt.

so lets think of your generic strategy:


  • you arent going to invest all your money in 1 stock/share/company. you are going to invest a fraction of your money such that you spread out your risk and are able to cope with a potential loss.
  • every investment decision you make is going to be well thought out - you arent going to make sporadic investments. you're going to research the market, evaluate the risk of the investment, evaluate your potential reward and decide whether its worth it. you arent going to invest in markets/ companies whom you know nothing about.
  • now, lets say you make a few good investments and start to build up some funds with which you can re-invest. you can start to look at bigger opportunities to invest more money for hopefully bigger rewards. naturally, theres bigger risk too. you're going to make sure you evaluate every investment even more since the money means more.




do you see a trend in how this can be applied to poker?



your bankroll is essentially your funds to play poker with, just as the cash in the business are your means for investing. make good investments and you make money, make bad investments and u lose money, same with business and poker.

whenever you look at the various tables within a certain stake (e.g. scrolling the list of 6max games at 25nl), you are effectively looking at various companies within a market - each has their own level of risk and profitability. investing in companies with a low level of profitability and high level of risk is bad in business. similarly, playing at a poker table with a bunch of regs isnt going to be profitable particularly, but it will carry a lot of risk - thus a bad investment. its not going to generate profit and help you move up the stakes - its just going to lead to losing part of your bankroll, and is effectively costing you money.


a good investor in business is one who invests in the things that are easiest to make money from - he isnt trying to turn a profit from companies which dont look fruitful. all he cares about is making money, and making it quickly. so should you be. your soul intention in poker should be: "i want to make as much money as possible" - who cares if you take that money from fish or regs? why does ego have to come into it?? (i.e. trying to prove you can beat regs)

trying to make money from random tables without properly evaluating your opponents at that table, and the other options available is both ignorant (im not going to bother looking at the other tables), and arrogant (i dont need to look at the other games - i should be able to make money here).





from my experience.... i moved up the stakes pretty quickly. i was playing 6max 50nl in January, and within 80k hands i was beating 400nl. all my game was based on game selection. theres people who were playing 50nl in January that are probably playing 100nl now, maybe taking shots at 200nl. im playing 600nl as my main game, while taking shots at 1knl. im not saying that as a brag, im merely trying to illustrate the point of game selection.

i couldnt care less if i lose some money to a reg so long as i make it off a fish. if theres a table with 5 regs, im not going to sit down so that i can "prove" to myself that i can beat them. whats the point? time is money. the time im spending on that table breaking even, i could be spending playing with fish and taking their money. even if im sat a table and theres 1 fish, im still looking for others in the lobby -i scroll the lobby at least once every 10 minutes looking at the games. i colour code anyone whos a weak player so that i can easily spot them. if i see them i join the wait list (start joining wait lists they are well worth it). if my seat that comes up has direct position on a fish, i will sit. if im on his direct right instead, and the other 5 are regs, i wont. simple. didnt cost me anything to try and get into a good game, but the potential reward could be huge.

the most important point here, is that even if im at a table with 2 fish, theres still going to be 3 regs. its not like im avoiding them as such. you arent going to not improve by searching for fish, because undoubtadely theres always going to be some regs sat in your games who you will have to face.

just think about what you aim is from poker (it should be to make as much money as possible) and work out the best way to achieve that (playing people who are easy to take money off).

Last edited by jackwilcox; 10-30-2009 at 04:21 PM.
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Old 10-30-2009, 04:55 PM   #677
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

Great advice -as always i might add. Do you have any suggestions as to finding tables ? specific stats found in the lobby or actually spending a few minutes observing individual tables ?. I admit most times i find open tables and sit as soon as i can ,sometimes paying the additional BB to get started a little faster .
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Old 10-30-2009, 05:41 PM   #678
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

paying the bb is ridiculously negative EV. always start playing when u have to post (i.e wait for bb) and always leave on the hand when its your turn to post the bb.

blinds are something everyone has to pay. going back to the business example, its like the equivalent of paying tax. and u wouldnt pay tax if u dont have to would u?!



if the lobby allows u to, then sort by players to flop%. try and look at the players on the list. look for players who aren't full stacked. regulars have auto-reload on, or manually top up when they drop below the max buyin. fish generally dont, they only reload if they go busto.

so at a 25nl table for example... a table with stacks of $15.40, $22.74, $11.20 etc... is probably going to be a lot weaker than one looking like $26.55, $25, $32.70

once u do decide to sit, make sure you gather an idea in the 1st few hands who the weaker players seem to be - look for signs of limping in, cold-calling 3bets, cold-calling raises out of position (e.g MP raises, SB calls - SB is likely a little weak).

you can always leave if no one seems to be that fishy - sometimes the lobby takes a while to sync all the table stats
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Old 10-30-2009, 06:07 PM   #679
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

great post - especially the part about the question "why are you at these tables." I think planning hands really should start before the cards are even dealt - players should have a strategy for beating the table already in place.
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Old 10-30-2009, 06:08 PM   #680
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

good read!
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Old 10-30-2009, 07:23 PM   #681
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

Thank you , I will make sure i sit till i need to post the BB , thus another step in proper BR management. Even when i do sit and there are players over BI amount i do tend to track there stats and play more than some of the others , but i will try to pay closer attention to your advice .
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Old 10-31-2009, 01:47 AM   #682
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

Great info, Im definetly going to spend more time on table selection, especially like the part about tagging players with colors, Ive been doing that, but not nearly enough. Green for fish Red for Regulars. Is it a pretty safe assumption that if they have auto reload/top up on they are regulars?
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Old 10-31-2009, 02:02 AM   #683
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

I am gonna be moving up to NL10 soon, advice?
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Old 10-31-2009, 02:17 AM   #684
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

Quote:
Originally Posted by VanIsleRyan View Post
Is it a pretty safe assumption that if they have auto reload/top up on they are regulars?
yeah because fish/ recreational players dont look for the function of auto-reloading.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SELFMADE View Post
I am gonna be moving up to NL10 soon, advice?
if you are winning at nl5 then theres no reason why you shouldnt be a winner at nl10. just dont jump straight in, make sure you feel comfortable when you sit down at the table since every bet size will be double - swings will be bigger.
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Old 10-31-2009, 04:18 PM   #685
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

Hey Jack, after reading your post last night, I went and flagged as many regs as I could at my current level of 10NL, I just started this level and will probably be here for a while, so I figured it would be worth it. After I did I started a thread talking about what I did and asked if anyone else had ideas....here is the link to it.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/32...sooner-621156/

I dont know if I worded it wrong or what, but seemed to be getting mixed reactions.
Check it out and please tell me what you think.

Thanks Ryan
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Old 10-31-2009, 06:11 PM   #686
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

how do you "flag" a player? can someone do it on PS?
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Old 10-31-2009, 06:54 PM   #687
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Originally Posted by SELFMADE View Post
I am gonna be moving up to NL10 soon, advice?
When I moved to 10nl the first time, I got killed. I didn't understand it because I was doing very well at 5nl and below. Basically at 10nl there are more people who will punish your really bad mistakes. At 5nl there are still plenty of people who are clueless, so you can get away with a lot more. Play tight, aggressive, don't be afraid to pass when you are out of position (until you feel comfortable at 10nl).
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Old 10-31-2009, 06:54 PM   #688
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

Thanks OP, good advice

Keep it up
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Old 10-31-2009, 09:07 PM   #689
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Originally Posted by VanIsleRyan View Post
Hey Jack, after reading your post last night, I went and flagged as many regs as I could at my current level of 10NL, I just started this level and will probably be here for a while, so I figured it would be worth it. After I did I started a thread talking about what I did and asked if anyone else had ideas....here is the link to it.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/32...sooner-621156/

I dont know if I worded it wrong or what, but seemed to be getting mixed reactions.
Check it out and please tell me what you think.

Thanks Ryan
flagging regs is ok, but not all regs are the same. some regs are absolutely terrible, but play 10+ tables and make a tiny bit of money just through rakeback, and the fact theres a lot of fish. they play crazy tight, but just turn their hands face up every single time (e.g. cbet 85% of flops, but then check the turn every time they dont have top pair or better). these sort of regs you want to play against, because they have in effect 'unlimited bankrolls'. i.e. if u stack them, they will always reload. and if u spend any time making notes on them, you will realise they play super robotic.

similarly, some regs are v.gd and maybe play only 4 tables, but are looking to analyse their play all the time so they can get better and move up. these are the sort of players you want to avoid because they are going to be tough to play against.

i categorise players who strike me in 1 of 4 ways (im not saying its right - no one told me to do it, i just thought it would help me game select): super fish (65/11 stats or whatever), super nits (10+ tables), good regs (who i want to avoid, and if i do play i want on my right), bad/ spewy regs (some regs want to try and be like krantz/ durrrr and just 4bet you every time u 3bet - super profitable)
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Old 11-01-2009, 05:12 PM   #690
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

Hey jack, thanks again and welcome back. Was missing your posts.

You said you move up from 50NL to 400NL just this year, congrats! Where do you usually play? I play on FTP and would like to know how to select the best tables since I have only these stats on the lobby: Avg pot, Players/flop and H/hr. What would be the best tables to join in based on these stats?

Also would like to know how is your hud layout. Which stats do you use and think are essential?

And to finish: do you plan to write anything about 3b pots at micro/small stakes?

Thanks!
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Old 11-01-2009, 05:19 PM   #691
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

Hey Jack!

Great article as usual. You got me thinking cause I usually look at most players per flop + biggest pots. And usually try to avoid tables with alot of unfull stacks thinking those are less profitable, u put a nice point about that one there.

When are u posting part 2? It's very relevant to me since I'm doing ok at 10nl (10ptbb/100 over 13k hand sample before my last 25nl shot) and I took 2 25nl shots twice, each time it went the same, I played solid and well won about 8 buyins, variance came knocking and monkey tilt followed till I had to drop back to 10nl. Which is the situation Im at now. Im really awaiting your post and thoughts on tilt.

Also archolas question about your thoughts on 3bet pots in uNL interests me.

Thanks!
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Old 11-02-2009, 03:27 AM   #692
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

ok, so part 2 is tilt control

a lot of what im going to write is taken from tommy angelo's series on deuces cracked, so for those of you who have listened to it, this probably wont be that useful.


definition: tilt is a factor(s) which stops you from playing your A game/ your best game. you can be playing your B or C game and still be a winning player. you can be playing your A game and still be a losing player. whether you're winning or losing is irrelevant, controlling your tilt is just about controlling the factors that stop you playing your best (A) game possible.


playing your A game starts before you even sit down at the table. its the mindset you're in. if you are well prepared mentally, then you're going to be able to play better than if you arent - obvious. yet a lot of people will still force themselves to play for whatever reason: they need the money, they're bored, etc.


lets go back to the example of an investment business..... you're the manager in charge of deciding whether to invest or not. you have an important meeting tomorrow with a company who are going to pitch their business to you in order to try and get an investment.


what are you going to do tonight?

are you going to go out clubbing and get smashed, then buy a greasy kebab on the way home, so that tomorrow you have a crazy hangover, are on the toilet all day, and generally dont want to listen to someone talking about their forecasted profit over the next 3 years?? no.

what are you going to do tomorrow morning??

are you going to do a load of paperwork at your office which will make you mentally exhausted for the meeting ahead? no.
are you going to order a large domino's pizza and eat it all to yourself so that you're bloated by the time of the meeting? no.
are you going to drink a bottle of jack daniels so that you're off your tits by the time of the meeting and dont know wtf's going on? no.

you're going to chill out, get a good night sleep, keep yourself refreshed, prepare yourself so that you can ask questions and find out all the information you need to about this potential investment.

so if this is how you would run your investment business, why is that a lot of people dont think this way about poker??

i used to play a ton of the time when i really shouldnt - ive had a long day doing work, im tired, hungover, bloated, hungry, thirsty, etc etc. things that are going to affect my performance a lot. im trying to cut down on how often i do these things, and its really just about being professional and recognising that if you want to do well in poker, you really need to get in the right mindset. anything that stops you from playing your A game is costing you money. lets say when your on your A game you make $10 an hour, but when you're on your C game, you lose $1 an hour. if you cut out all the times you played your C game you would automatically be 10% richer.

this is the same thing with quitting. you can be playing your A game for an hour, but then after an hour you lose concentration. this is a form of tilt because you arent playing your A game anymore. staying at the table is costing you money even though you are up for the session - try and look for spells when you lose focus. i know im losing my focus when i check my red line for the session and it has suddenly started to plummet - its clear im making a ton of mistakes so i stop playing.


playing good poker means being in the right mindset. if you arent professional in your approach to the game, then you arent going to be able to play to the best of your ability, and emotions are going over ride your decisions and cloud your judgement.




how about in game tilt? common phrases such as "that guys such an idiot, wtf was he doing?" or "omg thats such a bad beat, this is f**king sick" - are they valid?



dealing with your opposition:

well lets think of what your goal is in poker. it should be to make money. the things that are in the way of you and your goal is the opposition, and you have to find a way of getting around them. it wont happen all the time, naturally sometimes you will run straight into the nuts or whatever, but you have to ignore that and get on with trying to achieve your goal.

how about if you were playing golf, whats your aim then? well, your goal is to get the ball in the hole in as few shots as possible. whats in the way of you achieving that goal? tree's, water, sand can all be in the way, but if you shoot a ball straight into a tree, you arent going to go up to it and shout "wtf are you doing you stupid tree!? omg you're such a f**king ****** for being there!". if u did, you'd look like an idiot. its the same in poker.

if something comes between you and your goal, you just have to get on with it and find a way to get around the obstacle.


dealing with getting outdrawn:

well the 1st thing to do is expell any negative words with what is effectively a change in equity. at every point in a hand there's a chance you're going to lose. it may be a 5% chance or a 50% chance, but theres still a chance. sure, its not good to lose, but when you do you have to accept it as a change in equity and move on. coining phrases such as "bad beat" or "suck out" create a negative thought process in your mind which just leads to making you angry. statistically, any change in equity against you is just as likely to happen in the future in your favour, so factoring short term variance into any form of anger or negativity is just ******ed.

if you are fully bankrolled and a winning player, getting outdrawn shouldnt affect you in terms of your ability to play the game you are in. if it does, look up to the top where i talk about things that affect you playing your A game. maybe if you take a hit to your roll you cant play your A game, in that case you should just quit and come back when you're refreshed.

lets say you get it all in preflop with AA v JTs, you have a roughly 80/20 equity advantage. you can only expect to win 4 out of 5 times.

if you place a bet on a horse and you think he will win 4 out of 5 races, are you going to go crazy when he doesnt win one of them?? no.

going back again to our business example, if you are told theres a 20% chance your investment is going to lose you money, are you actually going to be shouting and screaming when you lose your stake? no, you're going to accept it and move on because it doesnt affect the position of your business to make good future investments.

any time that you get outdrawn, your equity in the hand has changed. thats all.


the secret of controlling tilt is just recognising what affects you from making good decisions and eliminating them. maybe you're under rolled and therefore playing scared money so that if you lose a big pot/ get outdrawn you are really p*ssed. or maybe you work for long hours before you play so that you're mentally tired when you sit down. or maybe you always go out for drinks with mates before you play and therefore are a little bit drunk/ tipsy when playing. whatever it is, you need to work out what causes you to not be able to play your A game and just eliminate it from your preparation/ gameplay.
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Old 11-02-2009, 03:53 AM   #693
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Hey jack, thanks again and welcome back. Was missing your posts.

You said you move up from 50NL to 400NL just this year, congrats! Where do you usually play? I play on FTP and would like to know how to select the best tables since I have only these stats on the lobby: Avg pot, Players/flop and H/hr. What would be the best tables to join in based on these stats?


i play on full tilt, and those are the stats i have too. i look for highest players/flop%, and then after that look at biggest pots if some of them are close.


Also would like to know how is your hud layout. Which stats do you use and think are essential?

vpip/ pfr and AF just to get an idea of the players type. 3bet% is useful when deciding how lightly you want to 4bet. try and look at 3bet stats by position because they vary wildly for a lot of players. fold to 3bet% is useful when deciding whether to 3bet light, or when deciding whether to slowplay big hands pre flop.

And to finish: do you plan to write anything about 3b pots at micro/small stakes?

im going to be making some videos discussing the importance of position, and thinking about ranges. im sure there will be some 3bet pots in there too. if not, then i will make some posts about playing in 3bet pots

Thanks!
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Old 11-02-2009, 10:06 AM   #694
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

alot of helpful info there thanks!
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Old 11-02-2009, 02:03 PM   #695
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

Good stuff as always, thanks
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Old 11-12-2009, 12:52 AM   #696
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

Hi mate

Two questions which I don't think have been asked before, I've had a good old browse through the pages. (2nd one may have but 1st definitely hasn't)

1 - Whats your PC set up when your playing? Desktop with monitor? 22" or bigger or what? I find that 22" is a good size for 4 tabling but not many more really unless your overlapping.

2 - What would you state as a good buy in guide for cash? Saw your bankroll in one of your vids was about 28 x the buyin u were playing and I guess thats about right?

Would you start moving up levels when you consistently beat the level your at and/or your bankrolled for the next level, or do you prefer to take shots after a big score, I've heard players do that before.

And yea...as said billion times before, great thread.
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Old 11-12-2009, 10:13 AM   #697
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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1 - Whats your PC set up when your playing? Desktop with monitor? 22" or bigger or what? I find that 22" is a good size for 4 tabling but not many more really unless your overlapping.

lol i play on a 15.4" laptop atm. have done all year actually. have a ton of overlap when im playiing 8 tables and all the windows are at their smallest, but because of being a student and therefore constantly moving between parents address and uni address, it has always been easiest to have a laptop.

im gonna upgrade soon tho, maybe to a mac desktop im not sure, but certainly gonna get something with at least one 22" monitor.


2 - What would you state as a good buy in guide for cash? Saw your bankroll in one of your vids was about 28 x the buyin u were playing and I guess thats about right?

tbh you should buy in for what you feel comfortable playing. everyone has a difference risk association with money. you should buyin for whatever level you feel has little enough risk that you will be able to play properly and not be scared of losing.

25 buyins now is pretty standard i think if you're a marginal winner at your level. if you're winning at 5ptbb/100 (10bb/100), then you should be able to get away with moving up when u have 20 buyins.


Would you start moving up levels when you consistently beat the level your at and/or your bankrolled for the next level, or do you prefer to take shots after a big score, I've heard players do that before.

well if your 'big score' involves being bankrolled for the next level then yeah... i mean again it comes down to your risk association with money. no one can tell you when to move up because u might have 50 buyins for the next level but just not feel comfortable playing.

with me, its always been that i have a few cool winning sessions and then am bankrolled for the next level, so i take shots when games look soft. i have a lot of buyins for 5/10 now, but i would never play it as my main game just because my edge isnt there (yet)

.



for those who were interested in video's btw, they are in the process of being edited atm so hopefully that wont take too long and the site manager can get them up soon.
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Old 11-12-2009, 01:42 PM   #698
HeWhoRoams
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackwilcox View Post
flagging regs is ok, but not all regs are the same. some regs are absolutely terrible, but play 10+ tables and make a tiny bit of money just through rakeback, and the fact theres a lot of fish.

similarly, some regs are v.gd and maybe play only 4 tables, but are looking to analyse their play all the time so they can get better and move up. these are the sort of players you want to avoid because they are going to be tough to play against.
When you mentioned this, I read it a few times and realized that i turned into the top guy. I was opening as many weak tables as possible and just playing ABC/robot poker. My win rate suffered as a result.

I'm currently on break and going to jump back in as the guy in 2nd paragraph, and hopefully get my winrate back up.
Looking forward to seeing some videos if/when you can get them up.
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Old 11-12-2009, 02:01 PM   #699
erty66
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

Cheers for the reply jack.

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Originally Posted by jackwilcox View Post
im gonna upgrade soon tho, maybe to a mac desktop im not sure, but certainly gonna get something with at least one 22" monitor
I'm using a macbook atm and tbh for poker use I'd advise against a macbook or imac desktop simply due to the lack of poker stat software available. HEM and PT both dont have mac versions. So unless your gonna use the mac as your everyday computer but play poker in Windows using a virtual machine or thru bootcamp, I would perhaps just get a PC.
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Old 11-12-2009, 02:06 PM   #700
jackwilcox
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

o rly? i didnt no at all that hem wouldnt work on a mac... meh tbh i only wanted to get one cos they look cool lol. gonna be a lot cheaper to go with windows anyway tho
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