i figured id update this thread since i havent posted anything in it for a while. unfortunately i dont have the videos done yet, so theres nothing cool to watch, you just get a bunch of words to read
i want to talk a bit about table/ game selection. its not a particularly difficult concept, but a ridiculous number of people overlook it. i have coached a couple students who, when i ask them why they are sat at certain tables, they dont have any response other than "i dunno... just felt like playing this one". that answer is crazily bad for a number of reasons which i will go into in this post.
lets think about why game selection is important....
beating regs is much tougher than beating fish. this should be intuitive as to why. regs are thinking/ playing in a similar style to you. they have watched the same videos, read the same books etc etc. finding an edge against them is going to be tough. on the other hand, fish just want to gamble. they dont care that their play is -EV, they dont even know what EV is. they arent trying to outplay you, they just want to see flops, turns, rivers, and showdowns. good for them, thats why theres profit. from regs there is little profit to be made.
lets think about the EV of sitting at specific tables.
lets assume there is a seat open at a 5handed game. there are 4 regs and 1 fish. the fish is losing at 8bb/100. the 4 regs are winning at 2bb/100. you are break even vs the regs since you have roughly the same ability as them. should you take the seat???
well, no. the 4 regs are winning at 2bb/100, which equates to 8bb/100. the fish is losing at 8bb/100. all the money from the fish is going to the regs. now, you might be able to get a share of that. maybe you get gd position at the table, and can win at a winrate of 1bb/100 at that table, reducing one of the others winrate to 1bb/100 too. is that a gd result?? maybe, but unlikely.
consider another table where there are 5 players sat, and the line up is 2 fish and 3 regs. the fish arent quite as bad this time, they are only losing at 6bb/100 each. the regs are still winning at 2bb/100. the total loss of the fish = 12bb/100. the total winrates of the regs = 6bb/100. there is 6bb/100 "dead money" on the table. if you sit in this game, you should be able to grind a substantial winrate, much more than the 1bb/100 you would have won on the other table.
of course, in reality its impossible to know players exact winrate/ lossrate, however the idea was to get you to recognise that if theres only 1 fish and 4 regs, then the regs are going to be taking most of the fish's money. as soon as the ratio of fish to regs increases, the table becomes instantly more profitable.
so, how do u identify the weak tables??
well, most lobbies will display avg. pot size, and players to flop%. now, as you may encounter when using a HUD, most fish tend to have high vpip's (i.e. they play a lot of hands). therefore the higher players to flop%, the more likely it is that there are fish at the table. furthermore, the bigger the avg. pot size, the more likely it is that the table has players there who are looking to gamble (if the table is tight, most pots will be over pre flop or on the flop, and thus not v.big)
sorting the lobby to display the tables from highest to lowest can help u identify the weak tables quickly.
also, u may be aware of the "auto-rebuy" function present on many sites. most regs will use this in order to stop themselves falling below 100bb when they have posted their blind or something. a lot of fish wont use that. if you are looking for a 25nl table, and there is players with $25 stacks, you can be fairly sure they are regs. if there are players with $22.60, or $18.45 etc, you can probably label them as potentially weaker players.
remember, poker isnt about ego its about profit. there are a lot of games that i wont sit in purely because they have 4 regulars in and only one fish. if i dont think i am a considerable favourite in the line up, then im not going to sit, i will just go and play xbox or whatever.... it should be the same for you. dont think you need to try and beat regs - you should be trying to avoid them wherever possible. similarly, dont think you need to play poker at any specific time. games run 24/7, you can come back later and find a good game.
anyone who beats 25nl, i am 95% sure could beat 100nl if they were bankrolled and used game selection. i can tell you from experience that i have found 100nl games which play weaker than some 25nl games, purely because they have a couple of super fish at the table who are just giving away their stacks. of course, that 25nl reg isnt going to be able to beat the 100nl regs, but who cares? you're avoiding them, so it doesnt matter.
make sure you are always looking around the lobby for new games to join, and dont be hesistant to leave the table you are sat at if you can find a game that looks more juicy. at 50NL and below there are a TON of tables running all the time. if you see a good one and its full, join the waiting list - thats what its there for.
whatever you do, dont let ego or laziness get in the way of finding a game that is more profitable to be playing.
Last edited by jackwilcox; 09-14-2009 at 10:27 AM.