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Old 09-01-2009, 10:13 AM   #626
gguk2008
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

In hindsight I'm not quite sure why I decided that he could have those kinds of hands. I'm trying to remember, but my mind is drawing a blank...

edit: Oh, the check back on the Turn. He raised the flop and then checked-back on the Turn. Certainly don't put him on a hand which beats me now (coupled with the large bet on the River), and the River gives me a safe card.

Last edited by gguk2008; 09-01-2009 at 10:32 AM.
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Old 09-01-2009, 01:22 PM   #627
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Originally Posted by CMAZ View Post
Hi Jackwilcox,

I do apologise for the typo in your name in my post above, I didn't spot it at the time of posting. Meant no disrespect.

Chris
sorry i forgot to reply to your post lol i wasnt offended by my name being mis-spelt.

i am going to be making some more nl25 vids actually, but im not sure when they will be available because its for a seperate site and therefore they will have to produce them to the standard they want rather than when i just make it, save it, upload it in a day.

im not sure if i will be making 10nl vids since i dont know if the site want that. when i have any links ill make sure to post them though
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Old 09-01-2009, 01:25 PM   #628
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Originally Posted by jackwilcox View Post
sorry i forgot to reply to your post lol i wasnt offended by my name being mis-spelt.

i am going to be making some more nl25 vids actually, but im not sure when they will be available because its for a seperate site and therefore they will have to produce them to the standard they want rather than when i just make it, save it, upload it in a day.

im not sure if i will be making 10nl vids since i dont know if the site want that. when i have any links ill make sure to post them though
wow, you working for a coaching site now?
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Old 09-01-2009, 01:28 PM   #629
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Originally Posted by gguk2008 View Post
In hindsight I'm not quite sure why I decided that he could have those kinds of hands. I'm trying to remember, but my mind is drawing a blank...

edit: Oh, the check back on the Turn. He raised the flop and then checked-back on the Turn. Certainly don't put him on a hand which beats me now (coupled with the large bet on the River), and the River gives me a safe card.
well imo his range is crazily polarized on the flop between monsters which crush you, and total air bluffs. i cant see why he would have QT/ 99 etc, so he either has KQ/ AQ/ set, or he has like... AT or something.

also he didnt check-back the turn, he checked to you. he could have been trying to check-raise the turn or something. i agree that i doubt he checks when he has u beat though since you called the flop he should just be leading the turn and trying to get all in by the river.

furthermore, his bet on the river isnt "large", its under half pot.

if you shove/ raise at any point of the hand though, then you fold out all his bluffs and only get called by the ones which beat you. its impossible to represent a bluff, since when you call his flop check-raise and check back the turn, you have to have showdown value (DUCY?).
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Old 09-01-2009, 01:39 PM   #630
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Originally Posted by Dude-Bun View Post
Jack I would really like your take on the topic of ranges and decisions with the check/shove on the river line.

Coming from tournament play I'm not used to it because if somebody is there on the river I try to extract max value and if i have showdown value id check call or if it's air I never have FE for that move.

How do you handle that move in deep stack cash games? either for value or as a bluff?
well in order to generate a pot big enough whereby check/shoving isnt an overbet, you need a lot of betting to take place on earlier rounds. obviously when that happens its likely your opponent has a strong hand. so check/shoving as a bluff isnt going to be that profitable most likely.

you would need to know for a fact that your opponent can a) value bet thin, so that his range for betting the river doesnt just include super strong hands, and b) can lay down decent hands in the face of strong lines (check/shoving the river is essentially representing the nuts, so you need to know he can recognise this).

ime, its not something you will see that often, and when you do, you can usually just treat it as a nutted type hand that was slowplaying.
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Old 09-01-2009, 02:15 PM   #631
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

i have seen a lot of posts in this thread/ in other threads, where people are effectively asking "what should i do with hand x, in situation y, vs player z". now, to try and learn some sort of system for every possible scenario is going to take forever and just isnt feasable to try and do. the important thing from analysing hands is to try and understand the logic behind different lines, and why they will help to maximise results in the future.

say you have a cardrunners membership, and watch a cole south video. the point of the video is not to try and learn how he plays specific hands and copy how he plays top pair on the river. the point of the video is to understand his way of thinking, and how he approaches different situations in terms of his thought process. you can then take his thought processes and implement them into your game.

so, when you are making a decision, think of it like this: "if i bet/raise here, do i expect him to mostly call or mostly fold".

or, if its him betting/ raising, think of it like this: "if i raise/ re-raise myself, how will my hand appear to him? what will my hand look like if i call instead? if he even trying to put me on a hand?" (if your opponent cant hand read very well, its pointless being deceptive, and you should just play exploitively)


try to ignore your cards, just think about how the hand played out and whether you think his range is mostly strong or weak hands. then think about what your hand probably looks like to him (you will obviously need to know what sort of a player he is in order to this).

try to think back to previous situations that were similar. i find a lot of spots where im sat there and im thinking to myself "i never get paid off when this happens" or "man, he always calls me down when i bluff a board like that".

the adjustment you should naturally make is to value bet wider in spots when you think you always get called instead of bluffing, and to bluff more often in situations where if you had a monster you dont think you would ever get paid, but the point is that you should play based on how you view your opponents actions, and how your opponent will view your actions.



in order to try and demonstrate thinking about how you will be perceived, heres a random example of 2 different players in a spot where we raise pre flop in position, check back a draw-heavy flop, and bet the turn after he checks, then we bet the river when checked to again after the draws miss. our holding is irrelevant as our opponents dont know what we have (obviously)

vs a fish - they mainly just look at the board, so they might think "all the draws missed, he could be bluffing, i have a pair, im calling".

vs most regs - they tend to think more along the lines of "well all the draws missed, so he could have nothing. but then again, he checked back the flop indicating he has showdown value since all his draws would bet trying to make me fold. so therefore its more likely he has a pair and is trying to make a thin value bet".

so basically, you want to try and work out how your opponent will interpret your actions based on their level of thinking, and obviously adjust to exploit it in whichever way yields the most profit. learning to play a system where you bet/raise to $x with hand y isnt going to make you a better player at all. you need to think logically about why you are doing certain things.

Last edited by jackwilcox; 09-01-2009 at 02:24 PM.
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Old 09-01-2009, 02:17 PM   #632
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Originally Posted by jackwilcox View Post
well in order to generate a pot big enough whereby check/shoving isnt an overbet, you need a lot of betting to take place on earlier rounds. obviously when that happens its likely your opponent has a strong hand. so check/shoving as a bluff isnt going to be that profitable most likely.

you would need to know for a fact that your opponent can a) value bet thin, so that his range for betting the river doesnt just include super strong hands, and b) can lay down decent hands in the face of strong lines (check/shoving the river is essentially representing the nuts, so you need to know he can recognise this).

ime, its not something you will see that often, and when you do, you can usually just treat it as a nutted type hand that was slowplaying.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackwilcox View Post
well in order to generate a pot big enough whereby check/shoving isnt an overbet, you need a lot of betting to take place on earlier rounds. obviously when that happens its likely your opponent has a strong hand. so check/shoving as a bluff isnt going to be that profitable most likely.

you would need to know for a fact that your opponent can a) value bet thin, so that his range for betting the river doesnt just include super strong hands, and b) can lay down decent hands in the face of strong lines (check/shoving the river is essentially representing the nuts, so you need to know he can recognise this).

ime, its not something you will see that often, and when you do, you can usually just treat it as a nutted type hand that was slowplaying.
Let me oversimplify this, you say that this move needs to be played against a player that is river-aggressive, a player that value bets thin on the river.

then a reevaluation should be made, is he the kind of player/has the kind of range that will bet river and call shove so there's value and he's the kind of player that will fold alot to a strong line with a river bet instead of c/r OR is he the kind of player that will play as listed above but fold to a c/r river with most of his range (even some of it's strong part if there are a few nuts possibilites that crush him) so it can also be used as a bluff in such spots (scary/drawy boards would be such a spot against a thinking aggro player?).

do i get the overall spirit of things right?

examples to both (c/r river for value and as a bluff) would be highly appreciated (even if it's not hands u played personally).
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Old 09-01-2009, 02:33 PM   #633
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Originally Posted by jackwilcox View Post
i have seen a lot of posts in this thread/ in other threads, where people are effectively asking "what should i do with hand x, in situation y, vs player z". now, to try and learn some sort of system for every possible scenario is going to take forever and just isnt feasable to try and do. the important thing from analysing hands is to try and understand the logic behind different lines, and why they will help to maximise results in the future.

say you have a cardrunners membership, and watch a cole south video. the point of the video is not to try and learn how he plays specific hands and copy how he plays top pair on the river. the point of the video is to understand his way of thinking, and how he approaches different situations in terms of his thought process. you can then take his thought processes and implement them into your game.

so, when you are making a decision, think of it like this: "if i bet/raise here, do i expect him to mostly call or mostly fold".

or, if its him betting/ raising, think of it like this: "if i raise/ re-raise myself, how will my hand appear to him? what will my hand look like if i call instead? if he even trying to put me on a hand?" (if your opponent cant hand read very well, its pointless being deceptive, and you should just play exploitively)


try to ignore your cards, just think about how the hand played out and whether you think his range is mostly strong or weak hands. then think about what your hand probably looks like to him (you will obviously need to know what sort of a player he is in order to this).

try to think back to previous situations that were similar. i find a lot of spots where im sat there and im thinking to myself "i never get paid off when this happens" or "man, he always calls me down when i bluff a board like that".

the adjustment you should naturally make is to value bet wider in spots when you think you always get called instead of bluffing, and to bluff more often in situations where if you had a monster you dont think you would ever get paid, but the point is that you should play based on how you view your opponents actions, and how your opponent will view your actions.



in order to try and demonstrate thinking about how you will be perceived, heres a random example of 2 different players in a spot where we raise pre flop in position, check back a draw-heavy flop, and bet the turn after he checks, then we bet the river when checked to again after the draws miss. our holding is irrelevant as our opponents dont know what we have (obviously)

vs a fish - they mainly just look at the board, so they might think "all the draws missed, he could be bluffing, i have a pair, im calling".

vs most regs - they tend to think more along the lines of "well all the draws missed, so he could have nothing. but then again, he checked back the flop indicating he has showdown value since all his draws would bet trying to make me fold. so therefore its more likely he has a pair and is trying to make a thin value bet".

so basically, you want to try and work out how your opponent will interpret your actions based on their level of thinking, and obviously adjust to exploit it in whichever way yields the most profit. learning to play a system where you bet/raise to $x with hand y isnt going to make you a better player at all. you need to think logically about why you are doing certain things.
nice post
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Old 09-01-2009, 03:54 PM   #634
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Originally Posted by Dude-Bun View Post
examples to both (c/r river for value and as a bluff) would be highly appreciated (even if it's not hands u played personally).
once u have the logic of why you should be check/raising the river, working out which situations to do it in will be pretty intuitive. for me to list examples teaches you nothing particularly, since its a pretty rare occurance for you to be in a spot where trying to check/raising the river is the most profitable line to take. this sort of question is effectively what i was trying to convey in the post i wrote above.

also, if having a river check/raising range is the part of your game you need to work on most, then i have no idea what you are doing in a beginners forum. what i mean by that is there are a lot more elements of your game you should be trying to improve first, particularly if you are transistioning from tournament play to cash games, since those other parts of your game will be where you make/ lose more money.
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Old 09-01-2009, 03:57 PM   #635
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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I can't believe they raked $1 from that pot....
yea you really get dicked when you play some of the lower limits. I've been playing the double or nothing games at a low level and the rake is a lot higher for the micro steaks then for the higher $50 and up games.
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Old 09-01-2009, 06:35 PM   #636
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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yea you really get dicked when you play some of the lower limits. I've been playing the double or nothing games at a low level and the rake is a lot higher for the micro steaks then for the higher $50 and up games.
Yes but it makes sense for online poker rooms to rake proportionally more as stakes get lower because there are more players at lower stakes. It sucks but what can you do..
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Old 09-01-2009, 08:11 PM   #637
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

I never really look at the 'juce' when I buy in to live events either. I really should. The only thing we can do is be aware and then make wise decisions.
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Old 09-04-2009, 05:40 PM   #638
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

whilst reading pp mag i came across this article "Cash strategy" as pp recommended it i thought it was worth a look. I've spent a few days reading the thread and have enjoyed your concepts jack. Im not gonna waffle on to much as this is my first post on 2+2, but i'll think you'll find that the posts from shafty78 is Mark Stuart from pp mag, if you didnt already know
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Old 09-06-2009, 03:47 PM   #639
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

bump, ne more updates??????
any more joy getting the videos, also what stake u playing now?
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Old 09-06-2009, 03:51 PM   #640
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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bump, ne more updates??????
any more joy getting the videos, also what stake u playing now?
updates are:

1) i have only just started playing again after a short break from poker.

2) the idea of building my bankroll on stars purely through moving up limits kind of took a twist as i had problems with full tilt and had to move across some of my roll. therefore, im not at any particular stake on stars as im rolled for mid-stakes on there.... if you meant in terms of generally, i play mainly 3/6 now and the tiniest bit of 5/10.

3) due to point 2, i want to change the theme of thread into that of players posting hands for discussion. i will also be writing semi-articles for micro strategy/ posting hand analysis, since i think that when i was last playing stars strictly for this challenge, i was at 25nl just about to move to 50nl.

4) i will be making a bunch of 25nl vids soon, but they will be hosted through a training site (which doesnt require subscription ). so will post the links as soon as i have them.

5) in reference to point 4, i want some people to submit videos for "leakfinder" style analysis. basically, whoever gets chosen sends me a vid of them 4-tabling a session and i analyse it, before publishing it for everyone to watch (if u wanna be the one to get "leakfound", pm me with your sn/ stakes/ stats, and i will see if you fit the bill)

Last edited by jackwilcox; 09-06-2009 at 03:58 PM.
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Old 09-06-2009, 04:00 PM   #641
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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updates are:

1) i have only just started playing again after a short break from poker.

2) the idea of building my bankroll on stars purely through moving up limits kind of took a twist as i had problems with full tilt and had to move across some of my roll. therefore, im not at any particular stake on stars as im rolled for 400nl on there.... if you meant in terms of generally, i play mainly 3/6 now and the tiniest bit of 5/10.

3) due to point 2, i want to change the theme of thread into that of players posting hands for discussion. i will also be writing semi-articles for micro strategy since i think that when i was last playing stars strictly for this challenge, i was at 25nl just about to move to 50nl.

4) i will be making a bunch of 25nl vids soon, but they will be hosted through a training site (which doesnt require subscription ). so will post the links as soon as i have them.

5) in reference to point 4, i want some people to submit videos for "leakfinder" style analysis. basically, whoever gets chosen sends me a vid of them 4-tabling a session and i analyse it, before publishing it for everyone to watch (if u wanna be the one to get "leakfound", pm me with your sn/ stakes/ stats, and i will see if you fit the bill)
3- so basically post any interesting hands for discussion?
4- sweet, looking forward to this as ur last video with the 3betting was good stuff, can u name the site yet incase it has other videos that we can watch in the near future
5- is this open to all stakes?? nl2-nl50?
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Old 09-06-2009, 04:05 PM   #642
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

are you allowed to mention which free training site this is, id like to check out what current content they have now, or is the site in the process of being designed?
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Old 09-06-2009, 04:07 PM   #643
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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3- so basically post any interesting hands for discussion?
4- sweet, looking forward to this as ur last video with the 3betting was good stuff, can u name the site yet incase it has other videos that we can watch in the near future
5- is this open to all stakes?? nl2-nl50?
well dont post a crazy amount of hands, since there is a micro-stakes strategy forum on this site. i am more interested i guess in you posting hands which represent a common/ standard situation that you might not be sure whether its correct, or the reasoning behind why its correct/ not correct.

the site is http://www.thepokerbank.com/ it has no videos atm, i will be the first "coach" lol. could set up to be an epic fail (its not my site btw)

primarily 25nl and 50nl are gd for leakfinding. 10nl id consider too. would be more beneficial if you are a reg at those stakes and looking to move up
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Old 09-07-2009, 06:07 PM   #644
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

basically i have been getting this kinda board a lot with 88-10 10 type hands, where i havent got my set, but only one over card, with boards like aq2 rainbow or two tone board i prob folding to a cbet but only one over card im kinda lost, i dont always wanta play weak tight!!!

in this hand, villian is a reg that i played with at nl4 and now nl10, but we havent much history, never really had many clashes, lost my previous database so only abt 300 hands on him now and hes running at 22/17. Im kinda thinking hes putting me on the flush draw and trying to get value from this... maybe he has a aa/ak/kq/kj kinda hand, also qq/jj as well as a few bluffs like aq aj might be in his range too! his turn bet, i think is a clear fold, but what should i be doing?

also, say there was no flush draw and it was againist a fish, whats ur thoughts for flop line? reraise him, if he calls it sucks as hes only calling with hands that bet us unless hes a real bad donkey

also would a 3bet be good play? im OOP tho to an utg raiser i suppose, but lets say im on the button?

IPoker Network $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $9.91
MP: $21.34
CO: $10.00
BTN: $9.85
SB: $5.65
Hero (BB): $12.63

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with T T
UTG raises to $0.30, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) 5 9 K (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.65) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $1.30, Hero.....

if i call cbet i have to call this, then if he bets the river, should i be calling again? its a very common spot for 88-10 10 with only one over card!

Last edited by Mark89er; 09-07-2009 at 06:09 PM. Reason: i have posted this hand in the mirco section too, hopefully no-one complains as it really is a common spot, lol
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Old 09-07-2009, 09:42 PM   #645
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

if your opponent is a reg, you can generally assume that he is similar to you in terms of his thought process/ ability. quite a big assumption, i know, but for the most part, if he a multi-tabling reg, he is going to have read the same books you have, watched the same type of videos etc etc. you are/ he is probably going to open from utg with a range of somehting like 22+, JTs+, ATs+, AJo+, KJs+, QJs and KQo (thats certainly a range id recommend and assume anyway)

so lets say that instead of being hero in this hand, you are utg. you open, and get called by the big blind. the flop is the same as in this example, and your opponent checks. do u bet top pair or better?? how about JJ/ QQ type hands?? how about small pairs such as 44? how about hands that missed such as AQ??

id assume you would bet top pair/ sets for value, i think you should anyway. you may also bet TT-QQ since only the K is an overcard and your opponent can definitally call with worse pairs/ draws. you may bet hands like AQ/ AJ just to try and take down the pot. you may check back/ give up with your hands such as 44, which certainly isnt bad. therefore, since we are saying that the average 10nl reg will think/ play like you do, we can assume he will do the same.

if he bets sets, top pair+, and air, our equity is this:

Board: 5c 9h Kc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.922% 36.41% 00.51% 205452 2899.50 { TT }
Hand 1: 63.078% 62.56% 00.51% 353049 2899.50 { 99+, 55, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, AJo+, KQo }


as you can see, we are quite a bit underdog vs his flop betting range in this scenario.

now, if we change the Kc to a Jc, our equity actually increases:

Board: 5c 9h Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.860% 43.31% 00.55% 250818 3199.50 { TT }
Hand 1: 56.140% 55.59% 00.55% 321933 3199.50 { 99+, 55, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, AJo+, KQo }

since there are more Kx hands in his opening range than Jx hands. therefore, on a flop like this, you may want to call since its more likely you are ahead.



basically, when you are contemplating whether to call or fold, try and think about how wide his initial opening range is, and therefore how many hands in his range hit the flop. if he was cutoff, he would have a lot of 78s/ A6s type hands which completely missed, so his value hands would be diluted by air. however, utg he isnt opening these sort of hands so you cant include them in his range, and therefore you have to weight him more towards betting for value rather than bluffing.

of course, he is still cbetting with air some% of the time, but based purely on the fact that he doesnt open with many trashy hands, too much of his range has made top pair or better and we have to fold the flop.
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Old 09-08-2009, 01:39 PM   #646
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

I'm a donk, but I think villain double-barrelling and betting 3/4 pot means it's quite likely that he's protecting his TP hand against FDs.
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Old 09-08-2009, 02:02 PM   #647
EGarrett
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Originally Posted by Mark89er View Post
basically i have been getting this kinda board a lot with 88-10 10 type hands, where i havent got my set, but only one over card, with boards like aq2 rainbow or two tone board i prob folding to a cbet but only one over card im kinda lost, i dont always wanta play weak tight!!!

in this hand, villian is a reg that i played with at nl4 and now nl10, but we havent much history, never really had many clashes, lost my previous database so only abt 300 hands on him now and hes running at 22/17. Im kinda thinking hes putting me on the flush draw and trying to get value from this... maybe he has a aa/ak/kq/kj kinda hand, also qq/jj as well as a few bluffs like aq aj might be in his range too! his turn bet, i think is a clear fold, but what should i be doing?

also, say there was no flush draw and it was againist a fish, whats ur thoughts for flop line? reraise him, if he calls it sucks as hes only calling with hands that bet us unless hes a real bad donkey

also would a 3bet be good play? im OOP tho to an utg raiser i suppose, but lets say im on the button?

IPoker Network $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $9.91
MP: $21.34
CO: $10.00
BTN: $9.85
SB: $5.65
Hero (BB): $12.63

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with T T
UTG raises to $0.30, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) 5 9 K (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.65) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $1.30, Hero.....

if i call cbet i have to call this, then if he bets the river, should i be calling again? its a very common spot for 88-10 10 with only one over card!
I'd raise the flop, then if he calls you can shut it down.
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Old 09-08-2009, 02:25 PM   #648
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

Raising the flop would be absolutely horrible. Why would you wanna do that? To bluff him off AK?
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Old 09-08-2009, 03:29 PM   #649
EGarrett
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Originally Posted by blackf1re View Post
Raising the flop would be absolutely horrible. Why would you wanna do that? To bluff him off AK?
Well, think for a second. Right now the hero is about to call off a total of $1.80 and has little idea where he is in the hand.

If he popped it to the same amount on the flop...he folds out bluffs, can be pretty sure when he's beat, and will occasionally get a better hand (JJ or QQ) to fold. He also doesn't have to show his hand as often and can raise more for value later.
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Old 09-08-2009, 03:54 PM   #650
jackwilcox
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Originally Posted by EGarrett View Post
Well, think for a second. Right now the hero is about to call off a total of $1.80 and has little idea where he is in the hand.

If he popped it to the same amount on the flop...he folds out bluffs, can be pretty sure when he's beat, and will occasionally get a better hand (JJ or QQ) to fold. He also doesn't have to show his hand as often and can raise more for value later.
read my analysis and you will see that folding is probably better than either other option on the flop.

he doesnt have enough air in his range because of how many hands he is opening utg - too much of his range hits the flop
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