I think this is a great idea

GL mate as a NL10 player I am defo interested in this thread

STFU and GTFO if you don't want to read it. Many of us small stakes players would like to see what comes of this if you don't mind. Thanks for taking the time to do this Jack.

lol e z cheech he was just voicing his opinion

how often u gonna be updating just curious

ok have played like 3 hours today of 6-tabling 10NL today. had some nice coolers put on me but never mind, am up a little bit after like 1700 hands or so, but its such a small sample its kind of irrelevant. i was playing pretty loose - 27/23 with a 3bet of 7.5% - those stats are much looser than i usually play, but i just wanted to get into a few interesting spots (meh, i got into some, though most were pretty standard unfortunalely)

will post some stuff, its obv a little results orientated i cant really help that after one session, but i like the plays i made in the hands that i post. here are some of the things i noticed that stand out most:

timing tells are so apparent especially amongst the ultra fishy players.

example:

i raise on the button to 30c with AT
sb folds and the bb calls. bb is a 60/4 drooler with aggro factor 0.8. will call 3 streets with any pair and chases any draw.

flop comes 47T

bb insta-checks i bet 60c and he insta-calls.

turn comes 6

bb thinks for a couple of seconds, checks i bet $1.3 and he insta-min raises to $2.6.

3 tells are apparent here:

insta-check, insta-call = i have a draw.
thinking for a split second = that card changed my hand, what shall i do
insta- min raising = i have the nuts.

if you watch for timing tells such as these you will have a real easy job improving your winrate. fwiw, i would fold any 2 pair on this board in a flash. a set would be very close as would any straight other than 89. 89 i would probably call and try to get to showdown real cheap

regs are really straight forward.

example.

reg opens in the CO to 30c.
i flat on the button with someting like 87s.
flop comes K64.
he cbets half pot like i expect, i call.
turn comes a 2.
he checks.....almost 100% of the time he is giving up on the pot. i bet $1, he folds.

most regs who i saw playing had cbet% of near 100%. maybe my sample was too small, but it certainly indicates that most are just on auto-pilot playing numerous tables, cbet because its good to, and then give up. exploit these by just floating a bunch of flops. im not saying its bad to cbet a lot - against fish its optimal because they give up when they miss - but if u can learn to beat the regs your edge will be massive. and these spots are just so simple to make money from them.

further example, this time of a 3bet pot situation:

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $9.90
Hero (CO): $23.05
BTN: $3.30
SB: $15.80
BB: $10.00

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with 8 7
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, SB raises to $1.10, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.80

Flop: ($2.30) J J 9 (2 players)
SB bets $1.60, Hero calls $1.60

Turn: ($5.50) 7 (2 players)
SB bets $4, Hero raises to $20.35 all in, SB folds

this villain was a really straight forward reg, playing like standard 19/17 or so, had a 9% 3bet at this point which was quite high though only a small sample. i only call this because we are 150bb deep and i think i can mess with him post flop. 100bb deep i would never call fwiw without a lot more reads.
so flop he cbets - i expect him to cbet this flop with like 100% of his range either for value or as a bluff. i call with my draw thinking i can either hit and win obv, or he will check turn to give up.
turn i was a little surprised he kept betting i expect him to check. but the added equity i pick up from making a pair, means that i dont need THAT much fold equity to shove here profitably. i dont expect him to fold QQ+ altho i think he might let QQ go potentially if he is super nitty. even when we are called we are not in terrible shape at all:

Board: Jc 9c Jd 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.922% 37.92% 00.00% 584 0.00 { 8c7c }
Hand 1: 62.078% 62.08% 00.00% 956 0.00 { TT+, AJs+ }

from doing calculations he needs to fold like 15% of the time for this to be profitable based on our equity in the pot. this is like such a mandatory shove in this situation imo.

from the opposite side of the fench, once u cbet, it doesnt mean u cant fire a 2nd or 3rd barrel sometimes. like i said above where regs seem to have 100% cbet, most of them were giving up on the turn. you can bluff sometimes

example

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $12.25
BB: $10.30
UTG: $12.65
CO: $14.10
Hero (BTN): $23.80

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with 4 5
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.70) 2 3 T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.40, SB calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.50) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB calls $1

River: ($3.50) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.50, SB folds

the villain in this hand was a super fish, chasing everything but rarely betting, and not making any moves.

on the river i obv cant win by checking.... but think about his range. it include a few pairs of course, but considering he chases anything, he can have a ridiculous amount of draws. any 2 clubs, any gutshot, he is calling 2 streets with. but he isnt calling the river after missing. he needs to fold 30% of the time to break even, and i think the range he gets to the river with includes missed draws a lot more than 30% of the time.


will post some more tomorrow about some other things i noticed because i dont want this to be exceptionally long and boring post (even though it probably is). i want to post a little more specific stuff about maximising vs ranges, and also about making thin value bets/ raises. hope you guys enjoyed this so far though.

Good luck, Jack, will be popping in to the thread now and again.

Good post, I'm generally pretty solid with my timing tells and spend a lot of time checking out for them, some of them are unbelievable, I've gotten to the point now where I realized I had the same tell, I'm looking for 9 cards and if neither come, I have no interest so I'll check quickly, the fish don't realise this, so exploit it, sometimes they'll pop up with 2pair, but generally a lot is to be gained with timing tells.

I also like your small river bet on that last hand, but at these stakes, expect villain to call this down with QT.

tbh i expect villain to call me down with 66 there.

i literally bet to fold out draws. and i think that missed draws = more than 30% of his range, thus i think my bet is +EV considering i think he will never check raise bluff

My bad man, forgot the QQ on the turn/river, I meant a naked T of some sort :P , not a boat.

i'm more interested in finding out the majority of the differences myself when i get there, but gl - i'm sure i'll pop itt from time to time.

thanks for making the cameo appearance bumblebee lol

Can't wait to see what you have to say about beating 50NL since I'm only a 2.3PTBB/100 winner so far (20k hands). Looks like this thread will be interesting for most of the beginners on this forum. Nice idea.

haters hate for different reasons. you got my props for tearing through the limits even if youre taking a break from it. i wouldnt stop for too long though, seems like you had a good thing going.

hej jack,

i like see u giving something back to the community... I'm currently playin nl50 and nl100 and for testing purposes I'd like you trying out some crazy **** as preflop shoving instead of 3betting with stuff like AK, QQ, JJ, TT etc, or just shovin the nuts when you think opponent has something relatively big.... its a big winrate increaser as well as I found out... too many people just play math poker in this micro stakes by betting 1/2, 2/3 or 3/4 pot or something when its clear, that villain has a pretty strong hand.....

just pushing in these spots, when u have them beat obv , will show a good winrate increase as well, thats what I found out in nl50 and nl100 games.... it should work in lower games as well if not easier....

its ridicoulus how just can shove the nuts and get paid off by such crap(like preflop with QJs and stuff).... some might learn out of this as well.....

Im not sure about the last hand you posted. How do you think his range is mostly draws? I would think a donk would show up with a hand like QT/JT/A3 a lot here. Is this really thin to you or clear he has a draw?

its not at all 'clear' he has only a draw. it is a thin bluff. like i was saying, he will show up with a lot of pairs. he will also show up with a lot of draws. he was playing like 68% vpip so that means he is essentially playing 68% of hands. that is any two cards suited and most cards that are connected, and i think he will check call with literally any draw.
when u use card combinations to take into account the various numbers of hand possibilities, there is a lot more missed draws than pairs. it wont work everytime, but because i only bet $1.50 into a $3.50 pot, it doesnt have to. if it works 30% of the time i will break even, any more than that and i show profit

ty for analysis. I think translating a stat like 68% vpip meaning he calls lots of connecting/suited cards and then narrowing this onto a postflop range is probably a weakness i never realised in my game. Pretty stupid really

great so far keep it up

Could be a good thread. Good Luck.

Good luck with this; i play FR, so I don't know how much use this will be to me but i think it is a good idea. Will be an interesting read, and i'm sure there will be a lot people in this forum can take from it.

Nice Thread Jack, thanks for taking the time to do it.

I'm interested, are you using a HUD? Do you have any datamined stats or purchased hands from places like HandHQ, or are you going solo?

i use poker tracker. have not purchased any hands though.

heres a few hands from earlier that were quite interesting. one is calling down a bluff, another is calculating the right size value bet, another is giving up when i realise i have no fold equity (is similar to a hand i posted earlier in this thread actually)

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $12.75
MP: $13.35
CO: $13.70
Hero (BTN): $10.00
SB: $9.90
BB: $10.00

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with Q T
UTG raises to $0.40, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.40, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.95) 8 6 T (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.50, UTG raises to $1.60, Hero calls $1.10

his flop raise really confuses me. i think on a board like this, i would expect most players to bet out due the really draw heavy nature. so when he check raises, to me it most likely indicates a draw of some description or "trying to see where is at" etc. i decide to peel a card and see what he does on the turn.

Turn: ($4.15) 3 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

thats a meaningless card, if i was ahead on the flop i am still ahead now. i see no reason betting because i really doubt he is ever calling with worse. i am just interested in getting to showdown as cheap as possible

River: ($4.15) K (2 players)
UTG bets $2, Hero calls $2

when he bets the river, im really not sure of any hands he could be doing this for value. maybe he had a really really strangely played AK or was majorly slowplaying a set, but his line looks so full of it that i think a call is mandatory.
had he shown down a set or something, i would be able to adjust very quickly to him, by making a note that he is tricky and slowplays his big hands. therefore in the future i can avoid similar spots, and also give him less credit if he were to play very fast and aggressive.





Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $14.00
Hero (CO): $10.00
BTN: $13.70
SB: $17.10
BB: $10.00

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with A K
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.75) 4 6 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

no point betting here imo. nothing worse is calling and nothing better is folding. if i am best right now, theres only 6 outs for most hands to make a pair so i try and get to showdown unless i improve.

Turn: ($0.75) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.10, Hero calls $0.10

i figure villain can obviously be taking a random stab. its a tiny bet, i could be ahead. dont need to be ahead many times to make this a +EV call based on pot odds.

River: ($0.95) K (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.30, Hero raises to $9.60 all in, BTN calls $8.30

ok here is an interesting card. yes this hand looks a bit fishy. it is to anyone good. but i think it maximises well vs his range. i could have led this river myself, but then i think i only get 1 bet in. if i check and let him bet i can check raise and get 2 bets in. i expect him to bet all his full houses if he started with a pocket pair. and i dont expect him to fold it because of the "omg i have a full house how can i lose"



something important from this hand is to remember that hand values are relative. sure villain had a full house, but it wasnt a very strong full house as any pair higher than 55 had him beat. sometimes u will experience boards where u have a strong actual hand but not a strong relative one based on the range of hands your opponent can have.

KT on a K74 is a lot lot lot stronger than 88 on a 789T board



this is the very next hand and demonstrates quite well how you need to adjust to game dynamics. when i get raised AJo is a terrible hand against most normal players raising range here. however, having literally just lost a huge pot to me, i figure villain is going to be pretty tilted. as a minimum i expect him to be getting it in with any pair and any broadway cards, against which i am a favourite..

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $14.00
Hero (UTG): $19.15
CO: $3.70
BTN: $17.05
SB: $10.00

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with A J
Hero raises to $0.30, CO raises to $0.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $9.30, CO calls $3.20 all in

Flop: ($7.55) 2 8 K (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: ($7.55) 8 (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($7.55) 6 (2 players - 1 is all in)




one final hand that i thought was quite interesting especially after my post with the hand where i had 87

villain here seemed like a regular. again, we are deep pre flop and i think i can mess a lot post flop with him.

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $9.75
MP: $11.60
Hero (CO): $26.30
BTN: $16.20
SB: $14.95
BB: $9.55

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with 7 9
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, SB raises to $1.20, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.90

Flop: ($2.50) T J J (2 players)
SB bets $1.65, Hero calls $1.65

Turn: ($5.80) 2 (2 players)
SB bets $6, Hero folds

i expect him to cbet the flop 100% of the time. i dont think it hits his range all that well he has to be worried i have a J. so i think he will most likely check the turn if he has air. therefore i decide to float and see what he does on the turn.
i was planning to shove the turn if he bet like $3. but when he bets just over pot leaving himself $6 behind i figure i have zero fold equity and he is always calling, and always has me beat too.

its important to remember when you are planning to make a move on a pot, just how much fold equity you have. the 78 hand earlier in the thread is different in that the size of the bet by villain on the turn means he can get away from the hand when i raise. here, villain is pot committed and therefore cant fold. getting it in here is bad since i am behind his range and dont have the pot odds. therefore, i have to fold even though i would have loved to have tried to hit and stack him, it just wasnt a +EV play.

again, nice posts

when did u start holdem and when did u think you stopped thinking like an average "absolute strength" player and became a "relative strength" player?

Thanks for taking the time to do this.