Hi,

These are my results so far since I started playing again. I wanted to check if I fully understand the graph so that I can gauge how I'm doing.

From what I understand, the orange all-in EV line is what the blue line should converge too eventually. Anytime the blue line is over the orange line, that means I'm winning "more money than I should" in showdowns. Likewise, any time the blue line is below the orange line, I'm winning "less money than I should" at showdowns.

So if my understanding is right, then I should have won $40 more than I have so far due to showdown equity and am currently having an unlucky streak?

EDIT: for some reason the image won't appear when I try to insert the image, so the link is here.

https://imgur.com/a/fOFVQsU

Red = money won (or lost) without showdown
Blue = money won (or lost) with showdown

Green = red + blue (total earnings/losses)

Yellow/orange = green line adjusted for all in EV

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Can't really make too many conclusions from a small sample graph, but basically you're winning in non-showdown and losing in showdown.

This could mean a bunch of different things without also taking into consideration a variety of stats, but it's likely you are some combination of aggressive and/or calling too much (potentially).

Again, nothing too strategy specific can be really gained by looking at this graph.

Yeah you are right that I am relatively aggressive and call too much. I wasn't trying to use the graph for strategy advice though since I know it doesn't pick up a lot of information.

Basically I wanted to know where my green line would be if the money I won was exactly the money I was expected to win in my showdowns. I thought that would be RED + ORANGE, but you are saying it's just ORANGE, so I should actually be losing money because I'm getting my money in bad too much?

Yes, you are currently running above EV. If you ran at EV you would be losing right now.

Yellow/orange line = EV line. That is essentially your green line adjusted for all-in EV situations.

Example:

You get it in preflop for $100 with AA vs KK in a 0 rake environment and you win. In this hypothetical situation here are what your 4 lines would show:

1. Red line remains stationary because this is all in preflop and goes to showdown

2. Blue line goes up $100 because you won $100 at showdown

3. Green line also goes up $100 because you won $100

4. Orange line is your equity which in this case AA vs KK has ~82% equity, so this line would go up $82

No matter what the outcome in this hypothetical situation you can't run "at EV", because you either win $100 (above EV) or lose $100 (below EV). I hope this example explains it well enough for you.

Yes that makes sense now, thank you.

So, if my orange line is above my green line, i'm playing well, but runing bad?

I believe so yes, but you would only know over a large sample of hands. My orange line means I should be losing money, however, it doesn't tell me if I've been in a downswing, or, playing badly. I will only know that if my orange line is going down consistently over 100k hands say. Since I've only played 15k, it could just be a downswing.

To give you an simple example. I could get KK, and be up against AA five times in a row. My orange line will go down because I'm expected to lose money playing KK vs AA, but the orange line doesn't tell me that I was unlucky to run into AA with KK five times in a row, that would be a downswing. I have in fact ran into AA with KK about 3 times during that 15k hands, and I have not had AA vs KK at all yet.

I hope that makes sense.

There's more to running good or bad than all-in situations.