Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
Wouldn't necessarily agree with fold pre, we are in position with the sort of hand that is really easy to play against villain's range and there's 20 times the PF raise to win, obv folding is fine but I'd take a look, flop seems fine as played
Villain has us covered, so we can't win his $300 stack but only the $15 + $225 we have. I am much more inclined to call that kind of hand preflop if I can play for 100BB instead of 80BB.
Quote:
Originally Posted by otatop
So MP never has a better flush draw in their range?
He does, but we still have slightly over 50% against a range of JJ+,99,77,AcKc,AcQc,AcJc,KcQc
There's only a couple hands that hero performs really bad against and those are hands like JTcc and T8cc and both don't really match the preflop raise and flop overbet of a very tight player.
Just based on the population read on very tight 1/3 players, I think his range for the overbet on the flop is significantly weighted towards QQ+.
But based on the same population read, villain is never going to fold to the flop shove which makes the situation less profitable than some might think. I don't expect us to have more than 52-53% equity here on average which means we'll win ~$14/hand on average. (More than) Half of that might go towards rake. Which leaves us with the question: Do we really want to call preflop if we win 2BBs on average after flopping the world?