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Old 05-28-2012, 07:33 AM   #1
Leroy_Jenkins45
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My Pooh Bah post :3 / 4 betting like a bus , bluffing and stealing like a Lederer !

I know I am a tad early , but deal with it

This is all Full Ring NLHE strategy . Thank you Mikes007 and Splitsuit for teaching me these things

This post will be a bit advanced for a beginner . This is more like one of the steps to intermediate level poker . A beginner should be learning a solid tag strategy . If you are still trying to get that down , then the plays and things I am going to talk about will probably turn you into a spew monkey .

Poker is about information :

You need to understand how and why a play will work before you can use it properly . You need to be able to handread fairly well to become a good poker player . This requires information . You need enough hands against your opponent to be able to know what he is doing . We have all been in a hand where the villian is unknown and we have 0 hands on them and have nfi how to continue . This is not an ideal opponent to bluff . You have no clue how he is going to respond to your play . Don’t get fancy here , just play straight forward

What I am going to talk about is best used against regs and opponents we have a decent enough hand sample on to figure out ranges properly

Now lets get into some bacon and potatoes

For simplicity , we are going to be on the button for all scenarios described from here on out unless specified .

I think about a full ring poker table as 2 games in one . Both games revolve around the button . The first game is the players to act before us when we are on the button . The second game is when it is folded to us on the button , and we have only the blinds left .

We will start out with stealing . What hands do we steal with ? How often can we do it ? What are we looking for in order to steal ? Why is stealing even important , its only a tiny pot ?
Calm the F down , im gonna answer this for you

Why is stealing even important ?

Stealing is important for many reasons . Lets say you are not stealing often enough , and you are a break even player . If you get off even 1 steal per 100 hands , you just increased your winrate by 1.5bb/100 The better you get at poker , the more you look for edges , a lot of small edges add up to 1 big edge if that makes sense . You need to be a good stealer to be a good player .

How often should we be stealing ?

I asked my coach Mikes007 this question and he said what do you think ? I said 20% sounds about right . He loled at me and called me a nooblet

J/K . He said something that was so simple and I just never thought of . He asked me “whats your equity when it is only you and the blinds left ? “I said I have nfi lol . He says” ok . If all 3 of you go all in every time how often do you win ? “ I just had one of those aha moments and it was clear to me . 33.33% . That’s my equity . Now I also have the best seat at the table because I have position for the entire hand So 33% is baseline Of course you can go much higher than this when the conditions are right , but 33% is the lowest you want to go . You can go as high as 100% ,Sometimes you have to tighten this up considerably when the conditions are wrong tho .

What are we looking for in order to steal ?

You want the blinds to be nits/tags usually . They understand the importance of position , so they hate playing out of position . You also know the importance of position , as well as seat selection right ? That’s why you put those nits/tags on your left You want to know how often he is going to fold vs. your steal . I use fold vs. steal in my hud stats . If we use a standard 3bb open , we need the blinds to fold at about 68% to break even on our steal . At 70% fold vs. steal we are printing cheeseburgers with any2 cards even if we don’t put another dime in the pot ever . That last part of that statement is important . I am gonna go off on a tangent here for a second to explain . We just found a mathematically proven play to make us money . Don’t **** up your play and turn it into a losing one by being ******ed . Like if he folds to a steal 90% and has a 3% 3 bet , and he 3 bets you , just give the hand up . Do not turn an otherwise profitable play into an unprofitable one by getting stupid . No harm in folding there

Now that we know who our ideal targets are for stealing lets talk about what to steal with . Keep in mind 80% is a money making play with any 2 cards , obviously your not going to find 80% at all your tables . The tighter they are , the more you can steal , the more they defend , the tighter you have to get . Lets look at a 37% range for our steals .
Using stove we see this is all pairs , any A suited and unsuited , all suited Ks , 56o +, and 86s+ . Play around with stove and see what you are comfortable with . As you can see , this is a very wide range . So as your opponent gets lower and lower than 80%with his fold to steals , the better your post flop skills need to be in order to show a profitable play . I will leave the post flop strat out of this thread , that’s another topic for a different discussion .

3ballin and shot callin itt !

3 betting is done for 2 reasons . As a bluff , and for value . Lets talk about 3 bet bluffing preflop . This is fairly easy to explain . We are 3 betting a hand that we expect to not be the best hand right now , but the table dynamic and the math says it is a good play . Doing some math we can see that if we 3x our villians open we need him to fold to a 3 bet 70% of the time to show an outright profit . This means that even if we check fold all flops or fold to all 4 bets , we still make money on the play !

Good hands to 3 bet bluff . The ideal 3 bet bluff hand is a suited A or a suited K. like A2s , K4dd we can also throw in hands like q8off . Ideally we want to use hands that have a blocker to our villians strongest hands like Ax and Kx . I usually use suited hands when 3 bet bluffing but hands like A5o are good ones too . Keep in mind how you are going to proceed if villian takes a different action other than folding . If he 4 bets , were done with the hand . Again , don’t **** up a profitable play by spewing the times it doesn’t work out how we thought it would .

3 Betting for value.

Whats this mean ? It is when we 3 bet when we logically have the best hand . We need to know our villians fold to 3 bet % stat here . I also use this in my hud . Lets say we have a 17/14 mp player with a fold to 3 bet of 50% . We can 3 bet him fairly wide for value because he is continuing with roughly 7% of his original hands. ( He opens 14% and folds 50% of that to our 3 bet , so he continues with 7% of his hands here ) So simply plug in his 7% into stove and see how many hands you can 3 bet against it for profit . This range is different for most players . Some continue with only pocket pairs and say AQ . Other guys may continue with only broadway cards . This is where your notes come into play ( you did take notes amirite ? )

3 betting hands that look pretty , but actually are not .

This is the 3 betting topic that will create the most controversy I promise . These are hands like KK , Ak , qq , and jj . There are a lot of times you should NOT 3 bet these hands . Wait wut ? Leroy is high today . Lol No . lets look at a good tag or nit from ep . He is 13/10 with a fold to 3 bet of 90% . If we 3 bet him AND he continues , he is doing it with a 1% range that’s like AA KK and AK . And now he shoves and you hate life So you can see he has us crushed when he continues . He also folds too much to the 3 bet anyhow and we have a great hand here . Lets not turn it into a bluff in scenarios like this we are much better off calling ip and playing some poker post flop . ( 3 bet bluff the stuffing out of this guy tho )Always keep in mind how you expect your opponent to react to your action . Use your hud stats

3 betting from out of the blinds .

Playing against a good stealer when your in the blinds sucks . Your out of position for the hand vs. a good player . Lets take our ideal tag stealer . We will call him 15/12 with a 39% ats . We need to know his fold vs. resteal % in order to know how out of line we can get . Obviously we are going to 3 bet him with all of our value hands , but we also need to 3 bet him as a bluff as well . Keep in mind , he is a good player , so he is entitled to make money there off of his steals and you really cant do anything about it . It is what it is . You can however take actions that will back him off a bit . This is where your 3 bet bluffing comes into play . I like to use the same hands I 3 bet bluff from the button as well . Tightened up a bit because I am oop . Hands like suited Aces and big connectors like Kqs are good candidates . Also small pairs . I can explain this further if need be , just ask .

4 Betting

Again , 4 betting is the same as 3 betting . It is either for value or as a bluff . Keep in mind that a 4 bet creates an spr that does not allow for fancy post flop play . You need to know exactly how you are going to continue before you make the 4 bet . 4 bets are usually about 25% of your stack , so don’t **** this up or it will get expensive very fast . In 3 and 4 bet bluff spots preflop , you want your opponent to have a wide opening range , but a small continuing range . Ie; you want lots of good fold equity . Normally you don’t have a lot of stats to see how your opponent responds to 4 bets . In these cases you can use their fold to 3 bet stats to get a decent idea of how they respond to 4 bets . It is not going to be perfect , but it will give you a decent idea of what he is going to do .

Spots to 4 bet.

Usually we are 4 betting with the intention of getting the money in preflop . Those hands usually play themselves so I wont elaborate on them here . If you want we can discuss it . So were looking at 4 bet bluffing . Usually when bluffing you want to be in position . Say we steal and the blind has a fold versus steal of 45% and he 3 bets us . His fold to 3 bet is 87% . We can 4 bet him as a bluff with hands like Ax and Kx . Also note , why the hell did you open light in the first place when you could logically expect him to 3 bet us anyhow ?

The 4 bet bluff that rainbows are made of ?

You shouldn’t be using this play a lot , but when the situation is set up for it , it is beautiful . It is the cold 4 bet bluff . Here is what we are looking for . Position does not really matter for this play , but usually you are going to be either in late position or in the blinds . What you are looking for is a spot where like a 14/12 with a 90% fold to 3 bet opens from say mp . An aggressive 3 bettor say a 16/14 with a 10% 3 bet 3 bets the original raiser . You are in the blinds with A4offsuit . This is an awesome spot for a cold 4 bet bluff . Your opponents are not going to put you on a bluff here . You have just shown A LOT of strength in their eyes and generally you are going to have a **** ton of fold equity here . You also have a blocker to their strongest hands .

I didn’t go into great detail I know , but I wanted to create some discussion . So please ask questions . They help everyone get better

One last thing . As said , DO NOT take an otherwise profitable play and **** it all up by spewing when it does not go your way . You took a good set up and it didn’t pan out . Fold and move on to the next hand . If you are not disciplined enough to lay hands down , then you ARE going to spew .

Please discuss .

Last edited by AlienSpaceBat; 05-29-2012 at 01:22 PM. Reason: amended at leroy's request
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Old 05-28-2012, 11:17 AM   #2
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Re: My Pooh Bah post :3 / 4 betting like a bus , bluffing and stealing like a Lederer !

Why are suited As and Ks better for 3bet bluffing than SCs - I thought that was the conventional wisdom?

I wish I knew 13/10s with FT3B of 90.

This was good to read in general, but I wish it was a little bit prettier for the eyes. Many thanks anyway. Good OP.
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Old 05-28-2012, 12:00 PM   #3
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Re: My Pooh Bah post :3 / 4 betting like a bus , bluffing and stealing like a Lederer !

Excellent post, Thank you! I found the part about blind stealing % to be the most informative.
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Old 05-28-2012, 12:12 PM   #4
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Re: My Pooh Bah post :3 / 4 betting like a bus , bluffing and stealing like a Lederer !

Indeed, part about blind stealing is pretty spot on.

About cold 4bet bluffing, as I see it, I pretty much only do this to, let's say, a 3bettor that has a very wide 3bet range who knows that original raiser opens pretty much everything and folds alot to 3bets.
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Old 05-28-2012, 03:41 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDefiniteArticle View Post
Why are suited As and Ks better for 3bet bluffing than SCs - I thought that was the conventional wisdom?
Because you have blockers to the bigger hands. Also, some people that we 3b will call with ****ty hands like QJs (although this would be more like 3b for value), and we have showdown value vs these hands.
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Old 05-28-2012, 04:04 PM   #6
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Re: My Pooh Bah post :3 / 4 betting like a bus , bluffing and stealing like a Lederer !

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDefiniteArticle View Post
Why are suited As and Ks better for 3bet bluffing than SCs - I thought that was the conventional wisdom?
I'm guessing this is where the 'know your villain' part comes in. If they'll mainly call with broadways and high cards then SCs are better or they may have our A5o etc outkicked. SC's are also easier to play fit or fold or lay down postflop if villain shows strength.


Great post Leroy, thanks!

A question though (discussed before but asking anyway).

Are you 3betting in the blinds with AK against a BTN raise from a TAG with steal 30%, ft3b 50-60%? Or do you call hoping to hit and get value from his cbets with worse Ax/Kx hands and fold if we miss?
AK is ahead of his calling range but plays badly oop postflop don't you think?!
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Old 05-28-2012, 04:55 PM   #7
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Re: My Pooh Bah post :3 / 4 betting like a bus , bluffing and stealing like a Lederer !

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDefiniteArticle View Post
Why are suited As and Ks better for 3bet bluffing than SCs - I thought that was the conventional wisdom?




Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice_W0lf View Post
Because you have blockers to the bigger hands.
This . It gives you a tad more insurance on your bluff he does not have a Big hand , so you should get your bluff to work a tad more than the stats would imply
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Old 05-28-2012, 05:00 PM   #8
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Re: My Pooh Bah post :3 / 4 betting like a bus , bluffing and stealing like a Lederer !

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunna100 View Post


Great post Leroy, thanks!

A question though (discussed before but asking anyway).

Are you 3betting in the blinds with AK against a BTN raise from a TAG with steal 30%, ft3b 50-60%? Or do you call hoping to hit and get value from his cbets with worse Ax/Kx hands and fold if we miss?
AK is ahead of his calling range but plays badly oop postflop don't you think?!
TyTy

yeah , I'm 3 betting there all day and twice on sunday . say he is folding to our 3 bet at 50% , then he is continuing with a 15% range . I am 3 betting this for value . probably a larger than average 3 bet because I am oop with the intention of getting it in preflop . I do not like playing AK oop without the initiative , as it is a ****ty flop hand . it doesnt hit alot of flops . AKs value really shines tho when you get to see all the cards .

That said , sometimes I do flat call AK , it just depends on villians stats
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Old 05-28-2012, 05:00 PM   #9
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Re: My Pooh Bah post :3 / 4 betting like a bus , bluffing and stealing like a Lederer !

Nice post Leroy! Gave me some things to think about, and I just played a tournament and won a couple of hands I probably wouldn't have played if I hadn't been thinking about what you wrote. Came in 9th place too!
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Old 05-28-2012, 07:26 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kamikaze baby View Post
Nice post Leroy! Gave me some things to think about, and I just played a tournament and won a couple of hands I probably wouldn't have played if I hadn't been thinking about what you wrote. Came in 9th place too!
Woohoo . Gj
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Old 05-28-2012, 09:48 PM   #11
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Re: My Pooh Bah post :3 / 4 betting like a bus , bluffing and stealing like a Lederer !

Awesome post, thanks Leroy. I usually never 3bet with Ax and Kx since I held the mentality that hands that called would have you crushed...never took into account that those cards can be used as blockers towards a heavily weighted folding range for the villain (However I would still sometimes 3bet those hands, as well as atc, if I thought I could get a fold instantly, not for the reason of having blockers to continuing hands)

Had some questions though...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leroy_Jenkins45 View Post
If we use a standard 3bb open , we need the blinds to fold at about 78% to break even on our steal.
F*** me, my math isn't great. Can you show how you arrived at this number? All i know is that we are risking 3bb's to win 1.5bb's pf

Also when you mention (or Mike to be precise) that we have 33% equity when its folded to us OTB, what's the application of it at the poker table? Does that mean we steal 33% of the time? What is an instance where we would adjust that 33% equity figure?
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Old 05-28-2012, 11:59 PM   #12
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We need 70% folds to make a profit outright on our steals. Sorry. 33% is the minimum we should be stealing. Use your opponents fold vs steal stats to see how high you can go. Hope that helps.
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Old 05-30-2012, 01:22 AM   #13
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Re: My Pooh Bah post :3 / 4 betting like a bus , bluffing and stealing like a Lederer !

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDefiniteArticle View Post
Why are suited As and Ks better for 3bet bluffing than SCs - I thought that was the conventional wisdom?

I wish I knew 13/10s with FT3B of 90.
13/10 with a FT3b of 90 means the guy plays 13%of all his hands , he raises 10% of all hands dealt to him , and he folds to a 3 bet 90% of the time

Queen6 said to point out to you in regards to 3 betting scs instead of a suited A , please stove 76 vs AA KK QQ JJ and AK , then stove that same range vs A2ss
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Old 05-30-2012, 01:30 PM   #14
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Re: My Pooh Bah post :3 / 4 betting like a bus , bluffing and stealing like a Lederer !

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leroy_Jenkins45 View Post

One last thing . As said , DO NOT take an otherwise profitable play and **** it all up by spewing when it does not go your way . You took a good set up and it didnít pan out . Fold and move on to the next hand .
^Think i need to put this on a post-it on my monitor!

Also what do you think of pre-flop semi bluffs? i.e. a hand that is ahead of their calling range but behind to their 4bet range?

e.g. 3betting AK against a villain that only ever really 4bets AA/KK but will call with 22+,AQ+ ish
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Old 05-30-2012, 01:43 PM   #15
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Re: My Pooh Bah post :3 / 4 betting like a bus , bluffing and stealing like a Lederer !

Nice OP LJ
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Old 05-30-2012, 02:03 PM   #16
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Re: My Pooh Bah post :3 / 4 betting like a bus , bluffing and stealing like a Lederer !

Great stuff
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Old 05-30-2012, 02:31 PM   #17
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Re: My Pooh Bah post :3 / 4 betting like a bus , bluffing and stealing like a Lederer !

About stealing : I play at 6 max , and i try to steal , but i can't really do it often , because most regulars have about 25% Vpip and a decent 3bet range.
What can i do?

Last edited by SaynotoKlaus; 05-30-2012 at 02:47 PM.
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Old 05-30-2012, 03:04 PM   #18
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Re: My Pooh Bah post :3 / 4 betting like a bus , bluffing and stealing like a Lederer !

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leroy_Jenkins45 View Post
yeah , I'm 3 betting there all day and twice on sunday . say he is folding to our 3 bet at 50% , then he is continuing with a 15% range . I am 3 betting this for value . probably a larger than average 3 bet because I am oop with the intention of getting it in preflop . I do not like playing AK oop without the initiative , as it is a ****ty flop hand . it doesnt hit alot of flops . AKs value really shines tho when you get to see all the cards .

That said , sometimes I do flat call AK , it just depends on villians stats
So a 15% range he continues with is something like:
22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo+, KJo+, QJo

Against this range with AK we have 56% equity. I'm really not a math guy so bear with me.

We have FE 50% of time when we 3bet and so win 4.5bbs for example when he folds.

If he calls and we miss we will have put in around 10bbs. A cbet will mean another 5 or 6bbs, taking us up to about 15bbs.

On a dry flop BTN will/may float a cbet with maybe all pairs, Ax and maybe broadways but less likely. So say maybe a third of his range, ie 5%, poss a bit more as villains don't fold at the micros right!
On a wet flop we will not cbet if we miss.
On a board that hits our AK villain will often fold unless improved as he 'put us on AK'

So,
We can win 4.5bbs by villain folding PF
We can win by hitting flop 1/3rd of time and win 10bbs (unless outflopped)
We can win 10bbs maybe less than one third with a bluff/semibluff cbet

So,
we win 50% of time pf
we win about 50% of time otf

I always struggle to elucidate what is in my mind, but is the above about right?
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Old 05-30-2012, 05:52 PM   #19
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Re: My Pooh Bah post :3 / 4 betting like a bus , bluffing and stealing like a Lederer !

Quote:
Originally Posted by SaynotoKlaus View Post
About stealing : I play at 6 max , and i try to steal , but i can't really do it often , because most regulars have about 25% Vpip and a decent 3bet range.
What can i do?
Sit somewhere else.
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Old 05-30-2012, 06:03 PM   #20
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Re: My Pooh Bah post :3 / 4 betting like a bus , bluffing and stealing like a Lederer !

Quote:
Originally Posted by SaynotoKlaus View Post
About stealing : I play at 6 max , and i try to steal , but i can't really do it often , because most regulars have about 25% Vpip and a decent 3bet range.
What can i do?
Your always going to encounter a lot more action regarding stealing and 3betting at 6max than you would at FR.
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Old 05-30-2012, 06:18 PM   #21
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Re: My Pooh Bah post :3 / 4 betting like a bus , bluffing and stealing like a Lederer !

Start 4betting ldo
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Old 06-05-2012, 12:20 PM   #22
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Re: My Pooh Bah post :3 / 4 betting like a bus , bluffing and stealing like a Lederer !

I have recently found myself against a few villains with ATS at 50% or so and 0% fold to resteal. What's the plan here? Just move? I hate to do that because the rest of their play is horrible and I have position on them when I am not in the blinds. Do we just accept the loses to steals here, 3bet a merged range for value, and make it up on their bad play in the other hands?
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Old 06-05-2012, 12:23 PM   #23
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Re: My Pooh Bah post :3 / 4 betting like a bus , bluffing and stealing like a Lederer !

widen your value 3 bet range . Also guys like that tend to be aggro post flop from my experience . Trap them if this is the case .
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Old 06-12-2012, 04:46 PM   #24
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Re: My Pooh Bah post :3 / 4 betting like a bus , bluffing and stealing like a Lederer !

Finally got around to reading this. Nice post Leroy. Plenty food for thought.
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Old 06-12-2012, 09:48 PM   #25
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Thanks man
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