River:(25.5 BB, 2 players) 2 BB bets 15 BB, Hero raises to 112.75 BB and is all-in
My initial thought on the river is I have the 2nd best possible hand on the board and I can stack a smaller straight, set, 2 pair. I only lose to a flush.. so I push all in. -EV play?
You do not have the second best possible hand. You have the second best type of hand, but there are a very large number of flush combos that beat you.
With a four straighted board, he isn't likely raising you on the river with anything that can't beat an 8 high straight. You either have the same hand, or he has a flush. Their are more flush combos out there than 89 combos. Fold and live to fight another day.
Really fold a 15BB bet on the river? Not even call with a 9 high straight?
What does he have in his range that you are beating? On a sopping wet board, against aggression, what do you think the liklihood is that he is bluffing with air? He likely is flat calling with an 8 high straight. I don't see him taking the line he did with anything but either 89 or a flush. And there are alot more flush combos out there than 89 combos.
Unless this is a very low buy in rebuy tournament where everyone is playing very wide and loose to double up early, this is a fold.
Either call or make a much smaller raise otr. I probably just call which is a bit nitty but he's shown aggression throughout the hand and will have a flush often enough to render shoving otr a mistake. When you shove you open up the possibility for villain to fold the sets in his range. Definitely don't fold to the river bet.
[QUOTE=noak;52811517
My initial thought on the river is I have the 2nd best possible hand on the board and I can stack a smaller straight, set, 2 pair. I only lose to a flush.. so I push all in. -EV play?
Originally Posted by noak;52811517
My initial thought on the river is I have the 2nd best possible hand on the board and I can stack a smaller straight, set, 2 pair. I only lose to a flush.. so I push all in. -EV play?
What does he have in his range that you are beating? On a sopping wet board, against aggression, what do you think the liklihood is that he is bluffing with air? He likely is flat calling with an 8 high straight. I don't see him taking the line he did with anything but either 89 or a flush. And there are alot more flush combos out there than 89 combos.
Unless this is a very low buy in rebuy tournament where everyone is playing very wide and loose to double up early, this is a fold.
Sorry, misread the action. Thought villain shived. Yes, call the river bet, don't raise it
Was there any particular reason for opening 3bb pre with 98o in the CO?
River is just call and never a raise. By shoving you completely value-own yourself, because you can't beat any of the 30+ combos of flushes, and villain won't call with a hand you beat.