Full Ring Cash Game-5c/10c

Preflop:

Hero CO ($17): Raises 50c
HJ ($40): Calls
BTN ($30): Calls

Flop:

9c-9s-Jh

CO: Checks
HJ: Bets 40c
BTN: R to $3.26
CO: RR All-in $16.40
HJ: Folds
BTN: Snap calls $16.40

{ CO: 6-6 vs. BTN: 9-K }

Turn: 9c-9s-Jh-5h

River: 9c-9s-Jh-5h-Ac

BTN wins with trip 9's.

I shoved, because it baffled me that someone with trips on the flop would overbet the pot. To me, it signaled a bluff. Why else would an overbet occur?

Once I left the table, I realized that most of these BetOnline microstake players have been exploitable because their bets tend to represent their holdings. In some cases, not so much, as in limp bets or 1/3 bets to disguise their holdings, but for the most part, people slow play their trip boards. This was my first encounter with an overbet on this type of texture. So in my head, I thought, if you have trips, why wouldn't you want players to either bet into you, or call your value bets? Why scare them away? Is it because you are bluffing? Or do you know that I will call an overbet thinking I would interpret the overbet as a bluff? The latter I dismissed, since no one on this table exhibited any level 3 thinking.

His brief history of betting patterns never expressed an overbet on a flop, so it was uncharted territory. I should have just called or folded, but I acted on "instinct", which I have to recalibrate. I tend to do these sort of hero plays a lot, because I assume microstake players aren't this easy to read. It has helped me so far, but when it does not work, it feels like a punch in the gut.

So my question is, do you empathize with my logic, and in the future, is there a way to better gauge when to go up a level in thinking? Like, the ideal outcome would have been that my 5x shove signals nuts to the HJ and BTN, and they would fold.

It's interesting how people think they are deep level thinkers when they don't even understand level 1.

No sympathy at all the hand is awful and none of your plays make sense even if your line of logic is true (which is never is). You need to go back to step 1 and start looking at the basics.

QTo/KQo >66 there so even if he was bluffing you are behind.

tOo mUcH hIgH lEvEl tHinKinG iN tHIs hAnD

Thank you MMSS, Broken, and Werebeer for your insight. I definitely should have just folded.

lex, can you math?

How much do you have to call to win how much?

How does that compare to your equity in the hand?

or (How often does villain need to be bluffing for your call to turn +EV?)

Thank you. I will ruminate on these questions when I play again.

lex... I suggest you learn the math B4 playing again.

Poker Math

As with most questions asked in Beginners Questions, the answers can be found in the FAQ stickied at the top of the main menu. In this case Answers #31-34

This is the link to the Concept of the Week Main Index. Just about every topic here will include some math as....well,,, poker is a math game.

Specifically, the CoTW thread titled The Maths Of Poker. A bit heady and took me a few readings before some comprehension was gained.

or at a slower pace......

Diamond Dog's excellent series on math for new players he calls Mathenoobics.

Part 1- Intro and Probability

Part 2- Combinatorics

Part 3- Betting Odds

Part 4- Pot Odds

Part 5- Equity (Rule of 2 and 4)

Part 6- Implied Odds

Part 7- Expected Value

GL

Thank you. I am looking at it now.

4 points to consider:

1. Don't raise to 5x and bloat the pot. Especially with a small pair which you will often have to fold OTF.

2. At this level, when you raise preflop, they tend to put you on AK. Note that for this hand, you have 2 opponents who are not afraid of AK.

3. At this level, they are almost never bluffing, especially when the highest card on the board is squarely in your range.

4. Even if you had AK, this is a fold. You beat the micros by feasting on players who can't fold TPTK. Don't be that guy.

Your shove offered villain 8:5 odds to call. If he puts your range as KK+, AK, he's only behind < 7% of the time.

Stop making their decisions easy.

This isn't higher-level thinking, it's spew.

AK, from what I know, is very hard to play. Players in general below medium high stakes are unpredictable, even a NIT will get bored and spew a few time to time. And then in high stakes, it's even harder because they are usually very very smart. Which makes it probably the hardest hand to play properly.

With that said, it's also pretty ****ing simple. You do a basic raise, if you don't hit the flop and the flop is wet, you simply let it go. Don't get attached to it. You can't be reaching for your top pair while someone is building a straight or flush draw and thinking it is smart. Anytime there's 2 suited on flop, esp with 2 or more people in the pot, I just let it go. Every card that lands that isn't a king or an ace is a chance for a set as well, which means you'd need 2 in a row to combat that, or the ultimate broadway straight... which is very unlikely and will be incredibly obvious, thus harder to get any value out of.

1. When people play micro stakes, they justify all sorts of actions via sweeping assumptions like “its micro so I thought villain can’t have X/wouldn’t be capable of Y”. First off they’re playing the same stakes as you so I wouldn’t be too harsh on them! Second, at micro stakes the pool is more exploitable. You should be looking for the common exploits at a player by player level and taking advantage, not applying generalisations which support your “gut”/mistakes
2. Regardless of stakes, your initial thoughts should include ranges, equity and pot odds
3. Don’t raise 5x BB with 6s OOP. Try to keep the pot small and if you make your set then rinse your opponent
4. Villain is facing a someone betting into 2 players with a 5x BB preflop raiser still to act. He wants to get paid and maybe thinks there’s a good chance one of you has a pocket pair, top pair or over cards (maybe a straight draw but unlikely) and is willing to get it in which is exactly what happened (captain hindsight ). Maybe go back and look at your history and see if you have a tendency to not be willing to let go of PPs or marginal made hands?

High level play ITT

Lol.. what a a waste of good 16$.