Hey guys,

currently I am playing only online Poker. Today I met with a friend and we talked about Poker. He asked me if he could invest in me playing live in the casino.
I find that idea really good, but I have no idea how such a long term staking contract would look like.
My questions are the following:

-how to split the winnings? (cut)
-which period of time?
-how to deal with losses?
-what are the advantages for me if I am already rolled for the stakes? I heard of deals where the the cut is 50/50 and the period is one month. If you are in the minus after a month, you have to grind it back in the next month. But what are the exact advantages of such a deal?
-what kind of deal would be better for me but at the same time fair regarding my friend? (I am winning player)

I hope you can help me.
Cheers

If you have the bankroll to play yourself, don't do it. You're just going to give away money for no reason unless you work out a deal where you merely transfer variance to the backer without it costing EV.

The period of time obviously matters. Most deals are 50/50 for indefinite period and if you quit the stake you have to pay what you're down, which is basically screwing over (and freerolling) the player. In the long run a winning player is going to have nearly 100% chance of winning so it's never fair to shovel over 50% of the profit. In the very short run, like one session, the player should get a very low percentage because it's nearly 50/50 he's going to lose. So the player should get anywhere between 100% and 0% depending on the volume he plays. It's very difficult to do this fairly so if you want to get stakes I suggest constructing any other method of raising capital than a profit split.

If you insist on doing a profit split, take into consideration the winrate you expect to have, your standard deviation and as a result the scenarios that can happen in terms of profit and probability.

Thx for the answer. I have the bankroll for it but like 99% of it is invested and i can not get it in near future. Because of that situation it is a good chance for me.
If we decide to start a staking, I would play about 40-60h a month at 2/4nl. My main game however is plo. So the goal is to play the ultra high variance plo 5/5 game in the casino.
But still, if i look in the future, I dont know why I should be staked any longer as soon as I have access to my bankroll.
So you think where is the problem now. The problem is, that I dont want to exploit my good friend and say "good bye" at the point where I have enough money.
What would be a fair solution?
Perhaps stakings for only on weekend or night and make a 30/70 cut but see every night isolated? I mean if I loose at day one he has bad luck and if I win at day two I get the 30% no matter how much I lost the day before?
The games are pretty soft. I would really jump into the games and make profit, but at the same time I want a fair deal for my friend.
My plan was to play only at friday and saturday.
Thx for the help

If you're a good player then getting staked is the most expensive form of capital there is. If it is on a short term, just loan the money.

I am a very good player, but as I said, I can not touch my bnkroll because it is stuck in an Investment. Also my friend is my cousin who helped me a lot in Life. I want to give him something back.
There is also the aspect of motivtion and desciplin which will increase with the staking.

Now I am searching for a fair Deal for me and my cousin

How would you feel if the short sample of live PLO turns out to cause a loss? Because that would be his loss.

If you want to give him something just pay some sort of premium over the short term loan. Or like a small freeroll if you profited and you paid back the money.

Yeah that would be fair if I would know when I can and if I can access to my money. At the moment i do not even know if I get the investment back.
My cousin has a good job and probably like 50-100k on his bank account.
He wants to invest something in the region of 2-4k.
So at this point I would really like to have some tipps
I am a winning player at plo50z (was about to move up to plo100) at stars with some adventures at chinese sites in the meantime (other thread )
The population in the casino at plo consists mainly of rich business men and bad/ok/good regs.

If $4k is the ceiling then there is a very good chance that money will be lost due to variance at 5/5 PLO or it will take a very long time to be profitable with only 50 hours a month. I guess staking for PLO makes more sense since the variance can truly be disgusting but if he has that low of a ceiling then you need to accept you might be out of action very soon anyways.

Anyways if you insist on staking then try to work out a fixed (or minimum/maximum) volume deal and split the profit according to your winning/losing probability, which should be fairly easy to calculate.

I spoke to him for like 4 hours and really told him how big variance the game is. But he really like the idea and me too.
The plan is to start at nl and then slowly testing the waters the plo tables, implementing a short stack strategy.
Can you explain your thoughts?
Could you also give advice for the possible parameter of a staking deal if we decide to see it as a investment for any individual session?

Ok if you're expected to win 50% of the time (so a breakeven player) and you assume losses equal wins in terms of $ and he fronts the money, for him to breakeven he gets 100% of the profit because

50% * $100 - 50% * $100 = 0

So if he loses $100 50% of the time (his money) then he should also get $100 back 50% of the time if you win, or 100% of the profit.

If you win like 75% of the time then you need to solve for

75% * x - 25% * $100 = 0

Which yields 33% of the profit for him. Of course he gets some for taking the variance so that's where you negotiate. Using the expected bb/100 winrate and bb/100 standard deviation you can calculate the risk of loss after a certain amount of hands. These numbers are a pretty decent estimate after a short amount of hands due to the high variance, but the assumption that your wins equal your losses starts to be false after a sufficient sample. Also when he caps his losses at $4k the percentages chance because his upside is unlimited.

thx a lot for the answer. I will consider that after some sessions.

Could you also give advice for the possible parameter of a staking deal if we decide to see it as a investment for any individual session? I hope you understand what I mean

A single session is basically a flip, I think I've won a bit over 60% of my sessions in live poker. Just using that number he should get 67% but that's neutral so let's say you get 20%. Mind you that is NL so when you play a higher variance game that number goes down.

Like one and a half year ago I played regularly at nl400 starting with 200 Dollars. I won like 7/10 sessions with an hourly of 20 Dollars. It is not like I am a avg live reg fish

I have really good win rates at plo too. At pokermaster I had an estimated 50bb/100 at plo (before I had to switch into a very obv rigged club).
Now I m playing staked at a small official site for two weeks where I have and estimated winrate of 30bb/100. Also I won like 9/10 of the sessions. But it is also clear to me that I played 3-4k hands a session online versus the 150-200 hands in the casino per session.(no tracker at both of the sites possible)

Obv I am not a genius. These sites are just very soft(like the plo game in the casino) and I am a hard working player. Hope that will help.

So, the standard staking deal is a 50/50 split of all profits (including promotions like bad beat jackpot, high hand promotion, or players card points) with makeup. Makeup means that so long as he continues staking you while you lose, any profits go to clearing the loss debt (or makeup) that you have accumulated.

So, if you lose $1000 in your first week, then you will be $1000 in makeup. If you win $2000 in the second week, $1000 will go to clearing the loss and $1000 will be split 50/50.

I recommend that winnings be chopped up weekly.


The advantage to being staked is that you can win, but you can't lose.

Alternatively if you were rolled for 1/2 but looking to get into 2/5, you could have your buddy take half your action for a quarter of the profits, with makeup attached as well.

Ok guys. Based on my results in the casino I ran some simulations with open office calc to see how diffrent deals affect the winnings of me and my cousin.
Now I figured out a good "middle way" (dont know if this expression exists in english):

-After every 10 hours of playing we split the winnings 50/50.
-If I loose in such a period of 10 hours, I will have to grind the losses back

What do you guys think? Is this fair deal given the big edge I give myself over the field but also considering the big Variance of this game?
Lets see in the future. Lets assume I get my roll back and/or win big at the other staking deal. How to change the deal to make it attractive for me even if I have the money to play the games and I am a big winner?

You don't have a bankroll then. The simple fact that you fail to realize this would have me inclined to believe you're not as good as you are.

Yes. At the moment my bankroll is not available. But I am staked for online poker, that I crush. Last week I played 70 hours and I am up 8000 BB playing 6 regular tables.

If you still dont believe me, then just imagine that I am as good as I claim to be and then tell me what a fair Deal would look like.

Either you have access to a liquid bankroll, or that money is wisely invested elsewhere and should stay as such.

This “being staked everywhere” habit is not sustainable.

Own your own action, in every cash game. Sell or swap action to large tournaments, that you can not afford to enter otherwise.

All in my opinion, of course.

Thank you for the advice. The money is not good invested. It is more like i got scammed and we trying to get the money back. It is stupid and you are right, but at the moment there is no other option. I make good mone online and my cousin came to me and asked me to invest his money.
I really would like to have advice what a fair deal would look like or if my deal is good already.
He will invest in me no matter what. So I need advice to make the best out of it.

Thank you

What calculations and assumptions have you made that led to a 50/50 split?

If you are already being staked online, why do you need to ask questions about being staked live? Live play is very different than online. How do you know the live games are soft? Do you have a track record? It's really not wise to compare live v online results.

A deal can have any terms that both parties agree to. Certainly with family it can be more tenuous. What are your cousin's expectations? Is he willing to lose it all or is he 'demanding' that all the money be returned? Those expectations/attitudes go into creating the 'right' terms for the deal.

Right now it seems you can't 'afford' to play live poker, so you 'need' your cousin in order to do so. Your cousin thinks you have a better chance at making a profit off of poker than he does, so he 'needs' you in order to do so. Is that a 50/50 'need'? Only you two can decide that.

You are talking make up ... How are you going to 'make up' if you don't have a bank roll to do so? If you bust through the $2K (basically 4-6 buy-ins?) how long is your cousin going to wait for you to start paying back?

I'm not sure you're in a position to 'properly' come up with live expectations to craft a deal. So that in it's self is your quandary. Again, only you two can make a deal. If you or your cousin think that the deal is unfair along the way then you also need an 'out' term as well.

Try this on for size ...
1) Cousin commits funds, possibly in two tiers so you don't tilt off everything in short order or at least slow down the run bad/variance. This will also give you an opportunity to discuss how things are going before he commits more funds.

2) Anything above the full stake level is split each session/week. Tilt this heavily towards cousin (65-35, 75-25 even 80-20) until the stake is covered, then switch to 50/50. Once this happens, if the stake is then lost then nothing is 'owed' to cousin. If he chooses to 're-stake' you, then the same starting terms apply.

Remember that you wouldn't be playing without cousin, so let's get the cash back into his pocket more quickly. Any profits you pocket will probably be more than if you had played online in the same time frame, so you are 'ahead' also.

3) Establish terms to end the stake, either up or down, that you 'insist/think' wont cause an issue long term. Is this joint venture with risk? Is this a loan? Is this a stake? Are you free to break out of the agreement and play live poker with your own money? IMO establish a high end threshold before you can go out on your own should you do well. So if your cousin gets $X over the initial stake, then you are free to break free and play on your own. If the original stake has been paid back, then you each get X% of the stake should either one of you want to end the stake.

4) Perhaps you can't play PLO until $X of the stake has been paid off and then the rest is 'payback free'?

I'm just throwing things out there ... The big IF here is the ability of you and your cousin to keep this arrangement clear of your family/personal relationships. There have been plenty of 'best friends' separated by a $30 electric bill!! I've seen it. (not lived it)

5) We all wish you well, but please triple check your emotional state going into this. Lots of Players change the way they play when they have a defined financial burden hanging over them. You have to go into this knowing that 'all is well in the world' either way or it will affect your ability to play your best poker. GL