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Old 01-07-2018, 02:06 PM   #1
Weltcheftrainer
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KQ river fold or over call?

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37924204

BTN: $24.55 (98.2 bb)
Hero (SB): $27.17 (108.7 bb)
BB: $35.46 (141.8 bb)
UTG: $53.59 (214.4 bb)
MP: $44.03 (176.1 bb)
CO: $30.54 (122.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q K
UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, BB folds, UTG calls $1, BTN calls $1

Flop: ($4) 7 K 3 (3 players)
Hero bets $1.91, UTG calls $1.91, BTN calls $1.91

Turn: ($9.73) J (3 players)
Hero bets $3.07, UTG calls $3.07, BTN calls $3.07

River: ($18.94) 4 (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $9.05, BTN calls $9.05, Hero ??
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Old 01-07-2018, 02:33 PM   #2
EvilGreebo
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Re: KQ river fold or over call?

UTG pretty passive all the way down. Dry flop - damp turn... any reads on villain?

Don't like BTN call though - puke/fold I think.
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Old 01-07-2018, 04:07 PM   #3
SharkytheFish
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Re: KQ river fold or over call?

Quote:
Originally Posted by EvilGreebo View Post
UTG pretty passive all the way down. Dry flop - damp turn... any reads on villain?

Don't like BTN call though - puke/fold I think.
Yeah 3 handed I think I'm letting this go. Even if utg villain is bluffing btn needs to be pretty strong here to call and this is a slow played monster a lot. You basically need a pretty big mis step otr from btn villain to be good here.
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Old 01-07-2018, 05:52 PM   #4
ArtyMcFly
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Re: KQ river fold or over call?

Definitely fold the river, as your hand is unlikely to be good when it's still 3-handed, but I would check the turn and see what happens there.
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Old 01-07-2018, 06:42 PM   #5
Weltcheftrainer
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Re: KQ river fold or over call?

I hate when it goes check check and then BU bets 1/2 pot. If I call my range is exactly what it looks like and he can barrel me off on the river.

I folded the winner in this one :/
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Old 01-08-2018, 06:56 AM   #6
SharkytheFish
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Re: KQ river fold or over call?

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Originally Posted by Weltcheftrainer View Post
I hate when it goes check check and then BU bets 1/2 pot. If I call my range is exactly what it looks like and he can barrel me off on the river.

I folded the winner in this one :/
Try not to think about the result. Calling here will not make you money in the long run. Folding is + ev
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Old 01-13-2018, 06:47 AM   #7
soreass3
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Re: KQ river fold or over call?

I think UTG has a set here a lot, without any stats I think it's a clear fold as you'll rarely be good.

Also wouldn't auto raise this hand as you getting called in both spots often and are OOP.
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Old 01-13-2018, 07:47 AM   #8
Fatboy54
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Re: KQ river fold or over call?

TPGK versus two fish needing 17% equity to call in a closed action spot. And your all folding? Jeez.

Last edited by Fatboy54; 01-13-2018 at 08:03 AM.
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Old 01-14-2018, 09:55 AM   #9
amarri
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Re: KQ river fold or over call?

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Originally Posted by Fatboy54 View Post
TPGK versus two fish needing 17% equity to call in a closed action spot. And your all folding? Jeez.
Have to agree. The way the action played out on this hand there is not a whole lot out there that should be scaring you.
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Old 01-14-2018, 11:33 AM   #10
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Re: KQ river fold or over call?

Quote:
Have to agree. The way the action played out on this hand there is not a whole lot out there that should be scaring you.
To clarify, that's not really what I'm saying and yes, you will often be beaten somehow.

but versus 2 microstakes fish, with all the tard, spazzing and stationing that goes with them, you are going be good sometimes...and that only needs to be about 1 time in 6 to b/e.
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Old 01-15-2018, 11:08 AM   #11
amarri
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Re: KQ river fold or over call?

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Originally Posted by Fatboy54 View Post
To clarify, that's not really what I'm saying and yes, you will often be beaten somehow.

but versus 2 microstakes fish, with all the tard, spazzing and stationing that goes with them, you are going be good sometimes...and that only needs to be about 1 time in 6 to b/e.
Still stand by what I said. Look at the call of the pre flop raise.
What are they calling with BUT NOT coming over the top with.
The way this hand played out you should be good like 80% of the time.
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Old 01-15-2018, 04:38 PM   #12
Kelvis
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Re: KQ river fold or over call?

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Originally Posted by amarri View Post
Still stand by what I said. Look at the call of the pre flop raise.
What are they calling with BUT NOT coming over the top with.
77, 33, KJ, 56s.

Quote:
The way this hand played out you should be good like 80% of the time.
That's ridiculous.
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Old 01-15-2018, 06:04 PM   #13
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Re: KQ river fold or over call?

This is a classic case where we can get caught in the 'middle' of our own attempt at value. This might be a case where we have to 'see' that we are OOP and got called by two players (one in UTG) who called a PF raise and then flatted a pretty dry Flop 'c-bet'.

I think you want to go a bit more on the Flop here and try to get HU. If you get called you have a bigger pot built and can 'afford' to check the Turn and evaluate. I don't really like the Turn card but understand your desire to protect your hand against the now flush and straight draws that could be out there (at least at a stretch). The B is being offered 4 to 1 to call the Flop .. hard to pass up.

But did you really 'protect' your hand on the Turn with 1/3 pot bet? It pretty much just bloats the pot and leaves you at their mercy going to the River IMO. You could've bet $3 on the Flop and the pot would've been the same size, only HU perhaps, when you see the Turn card.

By checking the Turn we can then bet or c/c the River more often into this same spot since it opens up the bluff train a bit more and the bet sizing will be under control.

I think in these spots I give the B much more credit than it deserves but also understand that the B may flat thinking it's more likely you will c/c than UTG calling a raise. I tend to disagree with this since UTG 'should' have a decent range here that would be willing to b/c on the River, especially if you c/f.

Are we good more than 17% of the time here? I think we are good less online than live, but I'm always looking ahead and c/c River here early in a session will send a message to the table that they really need 'something' to win a hand with this line. It should get you a few more showdowns. If you don't want to send 'that' message then you can fold out and take a look at the showdown hands .. which is also information that I'm interested in.

If 56s (spade, not suited) floated the Flop then you know you bet the Flop weakly, eh? Or did you? This may have been your plan all along on this Board. If you were betting weak on Flop and Turn for value then folding this River is weaker yet IMO. You don't exactly explain your bet sizing thoughts here, but you got 'exactly' what you wanted here (maybe) ... you bet weak and then got played back at when you 'really' showed weakness on the River by checking 'that' card. Based on that line of thinking I think you are good here somewhere between 17-80% .. but lets say much closer to 17%, eh? GL

Last edited by answer20; 01-15-2018 at 06:09 PM.
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Old 01-15-2018, 07:31 PM   #14
amarri
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Re: KQ river fold or over call?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelvis View Post
77, 33, KJ, 56s.



That's ridiculous.
Maybe I am a bit nitty but I would not be calling a pre flop raise with 33 or 56s in this spot.
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Old 01-15-2018, 07:49 PM   #15
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Re: KQ river fold or over call?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelvis View Post
77, 33, KJ, 5s6s.
FYP post to what I also call (If I were a station) on the turn as well.

amarri...absolutely call preflop pretty wide. Give up a lot of flop....but Kelvis' continuing range is definitely in play here. And besideas...what is the difference between 33 and 77 here (seems you are OK to call with 77)
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Old 01-16-2018, 02:54 AM   #16
Kelvis
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Re: KQ river fold or over call?

We're talking about folks who limp preflop. You can't start giving them credit for playing a tight range or playing well.
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Old 01-16-2018, 01:57 PM   #17
amarri
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Re: KQ river fold or over call?

Quote:
Originally Posted by King Spew View Post
FYP post to what I also call (If I were a station) on the turn as well.

amarri...absolutely call preflop pretty wide. Give up a lot of flop....but Kelvis' continuing range is definitely in play here. And besideas...what is the difference between 33 and 77 here (seems you are OK to call with 77)
Why would you call if you were set mining ?
Maybe I was taught wrong ? But I was taught you want at least 9 or 10 to 1 to set mine AND you would like 3 or more oppentents if possiable.
Also the reason I MIGHT call with 77 but not 33 is because your chances of still being top pair with 77 could happen.
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Old 01-16-2018, 02:33 PM   #18
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Re: KQ river fold or over call?

Because....as Kelvis replied today, we ARE talking about people that limp PF with the majority of their playing range.

And this follows with..... they also will limp and then (close to 100%) call any raise from behind. It's what they do...and why we love to find these guys at our table.

What you do when setmining may not resemble a fish's strategy.....


(((you specifically pointed a finger at ME. If you read my post I did say "I also call (If I were a station)")))
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Old 01-16-2018, 02:51 PM   #19
Kelvis
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Re: KQ river fold or over call?

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Originally Posted by amarri View Post
Why would you call if you were set mining ?
Maybe I was taught wrong ? But I was taught you want at least 9 or 10 to 1 to set mine AND you would like 3 or more oppentents if possiable.
Also the reason I MIGHT call with 77 but not 33 is because your chances of still being top pair with 77 could happen.
Both opponents limped and called a raise out of position. Whatever you might think you would do in their situation is irrelevant. They see a pair and want to hit a set or they see some suited connectors and call to see a flop. They remember the times where they stack someone and forget all those times they miss and lose $1 or win a small pot against ace high. They keep doing it though. Whether you like it or not, there are plenty of hands that they can both have that have KQ crushed.

They called a raise preflop (which does not mean that much but still), they both called flop and turn and now one of them bets the river and gets called. We know that at least 1 of them must have something and the one who bet the river may or may not have something good. There are so few draws on the flop and one of them just got there. You're simply not winning this 50%+ of the time, the question is do we win 25% or 30% of the time to make this a very profitable call.

Actually, if we're good 80% of the time like you said then you should be raising.
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Old 01-16-2018, 03:06 PM   #20
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Re: KQ river fold or over call?

??? Wobbly thread here ...

1) Both V have position on Hero (SB) ... being UTG and B
2) Both V limp called 4bb into 90x2 stacks ... 4bb x 11 < 90 and multi-way, set mine green light in my book

3) Playing 77 with the idea that it 'could' be top pair? So can K2o sometimes .. super small edge over 33 there
4) Hero bet super weak on both Flop and Turn IMO, but agree that fading two opponents will be tough.

We are right back down to simple pot calling odds .. 4 to 1, 20% .. against two limp-calling-calling-calling ranges.

With UTG limp-calling PF, what's in that range that thinks it can beat the B's range on this Board now that SB has 'given up'? GL
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Old 01-16-2018, 03:13 PM   #21
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Re: KQ river fold or over call?

Oh, OP raised KQo from SB. Should probably just be a call.
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