Quote:
Originally Posted by madlex
It doesn’t matter if he bets the turn like he does 99% of the time or if it’s that single time he checks, assuming his check/bet decision is random.
We don’t know which card will come and what he does. Therefore we use our best expectations. If he bets $100 99% of the time and $0 1% of the time, his average bet size on the turn is $99.
Not different from us calling all-in with AA preflop even though we know that our opponent will beat us sometimes. On average, that play is still profitable.
no wait i misinterpreted your reply. you are suggesting that we include the assumed avg bet on the next street (even though this one time it was specifically $0) which means i will only need to extract close enough to 5 more bets/units on the river to justify the flop call vs a fold.
thanks madlex you're totally right here. I know it's difficult to grasp the idea of what i'm talking about.