i present to you, a lolgraph

EV line and actual winning line just don't know where to go

Another short losing session just now. That's 5 sessions in a row I've lost. Just going to post some hands which I thought I played in a standard manner:

Hand 1: Vil is fairly TAG (doesn't explain the open-limp but whatever).

PartyGaming - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: $0.75
Hero (BB): $2.05
UTG: $1.66
BTN: $0.55

SB posts SB $0.01, Hero posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has J J

UTG calls $0.02, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.08, UTG calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.17, 2 players) T 4 A
Hero checks, UTG checks

Turn: ($0.17, 2 players) T
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: ($0.17, 2 players) 6
Hero bets $0.12, UTG calls $0.12

Hero shows J J (Two Pair, Jacks and Tens) (Pre 67%, Flop 12%, Turn 5%)
UTG shows A 5 (Two Pair, Aces and Tens) (Pre 33%, Flop 88%, Turn 95%)
UTG wins $0.39


Hand 2: SB is a fish, other villain has played 2 hands out of 11, in both of which he took down the blinds with a button or cutoff raise. Call pre planning to c/f without 2pair or better. Called the turn as vil may see it as a scare card and it's checked to him twice so he's more than entitled to take a stab:

PartyGaming - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $1.91
SB: $1.73
BB: $0.60
UTG: $0.37
Hero (UTG+1): $2.07
MP: $1.80
CO: $1.98

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has A J

fold, Hero raises to $0.06, MP raises to $0.12, fold, fold, SB calls $0.11, fold, Hero calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.38, 3 players) 8 4 5
SB checks, Hero checks, MP checks

Turn: ($0.38, 3 players) A
SB checks, Hero checks, MP bets $0.18, SB calls $0.18, Hero calls $0.18

River: ($0.92, 3 players) 5
SB checks, Hero checks, MP bets $0.44, fold, fold

MP wins $0.88


Hand 3: Vil is 21/18 with a tendency to attack limpers. I haven't yet seen him be 3bet and I haven't yet 3bet at the table. 3bet is a little small I know (2-4c more would be good I think), but do I have to call the 4bet given the odds?

PartyGaming - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $1.91
BTN: $0.57
SB: $0.35
Hero (BB): $2.00
UTG: $2.47
MP: $1.98

SB posts SB $0.01, Hero posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has A 4

UTG calls $0.02, MP calls $0.02, fold, BTN raises to $0.08, fold, Hero raises to $0.26, UTG calls $0.24, fold, BTN raises to $0.57 and is all-in, fold, UTG calls $0.31

Flop: ($1.43, 2 players) 8 Q 4

Turn: ($1.43, 2 players) Q

River: ($1.43, 2 players) 2

UTG shows 5 5 (Two Pair, Queens and Fives) (Pre 21%, Flop 10%, Turn 5%)
BTN shows A A (Two Pair, Aces and Queens) (Pre 79%, Flop 90%, Turn 95%)
BTN wins $1.36


Hand 4: My turn to attack limpers with a hand that rates to be better than any of theirs. He nearly always has a set or overpair 66-TT here right? Any argument for making a hero call, considering I have equity unless he holds A4?

PartyGaming - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: $0.56
Hero (BB): $2.00
UTG+1: $0.76
UTG+2: $1.71
MP: $0.31
MP+1: $0.57
CO: $0.82
BB: $0.80
BTN: $1.53

SB posts SB $0.01, Hero posts BB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.05) Hero has T A

fold, UTG+2 calls $0.02, MP calls $0.02, MP+1 calls $0.02, CO calls $0.02, BB checks, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.16, UTG+2 calls $0.14, MP calls $0.14, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.55, 3 players) 5 2 3
Hero bets $0.30, UTG+2 raises to $1.55 and is all-in, fold, fold

UTG+2 wins $1.10

second hand, why are you calling only to fold there? chances are he doesn't have A5 4 or 8 and he's not 3 betting you with 6 7 and if you were worried he had AQ AK why call with only 3 outs (assuming he had any of those 2). Personally i don't think he had the set as he'd bet out the flop with the possible draws

I called to re-evaluate based on river action - whilst he could easily take a stab OTT with air or TT-KK, he's unlikely to double barrel after being called without at least an ace, I thought. Presumably worse aces weren't in his 3betting range so his bet on the river made me feel like I was beaten 90% of the time here. If you meant pre, I'm getting something like 5-1 plus reasonable implied odds.

In keeping with my habit of posting in this thread when I'm extremely tired, it's time for another post. And that's horribly redundant. Whatever, I made stacks today. Won 55ts, played $60 humtt on lock (had like 1.6k overlay, was pretty sick) and mincashed after running very well (lost AJ<KQ aipf to get into the next round though)...so that was another $200 profit. Then I played 16 games vs an awful awful fish who for some reason opensits $30/$45 hyper lobbies and 2 tables and just gets crushed. Won 8bi vs him shotting 45 hypers, was +5 evbi. Middle b/e stretch is basically coinflip sngs which I was playing for fpp and because I had over 100% rb.

Graph of my month:



Additionally throughout all my other play (bit of mtts, humtt, few dons) I'm up approximately another $100-$150 and another $300-$400 in rakeback.

Pretty good month so far imo, gonna start playing 45st permanently and keep plugging along at 55t, maybe shots at 80t if I get some good volume in by month's end.

ran like **** the past couple days playing 5nl zoom. feel like im playing solid just getting cold deckered every time. down about 6-7BI i think. last hand of this session aces cracked by straight flush...

Villain stacked off 300bb pre with 98o?

Probably think he's a poker god!

He's my hero at least

Dunna, after I spoke to you my session just blew up; I blame you! Was up a steady 2BI at one point, lose 150bb with AK v AA BvB and I'm just about even. In the end I was 4.5BI down, was a brutal small spell; I don't know how I manage to do it every single time, I thought I played fine but this seems to happen so much that I must be making mistakes that I don't normally make when I'm up. My mindset still seems to be awful, I don't feel tilted anymore but I must make silly mistakes trying to get my money back causing me to slip further.

Came off before I made anymore mistakes, so annoyed at myself at the moment. That's my good session yesterday made pretty much redundant, need to stop doing this or I won't be able to move up anytime soon.

Ahh, sorry mate!!

If it's any consolation I didn't stay at 3BIs up either. Went up to 4, then down to 2BI's when KK sucked out on my AA....again. Seriously, I'm so under EV at 10nl it's ridiculous.

I stopped too as that happened to me several times yesterday so could feel myself getting p***ed off. At least I had a positive session, just frustrating it could be 5BI's up and roll looking healthy, instead of another small win and still hovering too close to the 20BI mark

Went back on after I cooled down, as always I started well and won a BI back but I quickly dropped 2BI after that so I came off. Lost 60bb with JJ v AQ preflop and 100bb with flopped straight flush vs set. Not sure if I'm value owning myself at times but everytime I'm aggro with a draw atm they never seem to hit and it's destroying my soul!

It depends, but honestly I think your goal should be to find stations and value bet them... not get into preflop wars with regulars

If I can make money off the regs by being ahead of their calling range, should I not bet it? Just seems a bit nitty to me.

Is it just me or is the traffic on stars really low today?

Has anyone ever had the issue where a certain hand does not appear on their tracking device? I won a BI with a set over pair but my connection decided to disconnect as the rest of the board played out (money in on turn) so it has not appeared on PT4. Anyone know how to fix a problem like this?

Because you disconnected you weren't there when the hand finished so the HH wasn't saved to your computer and imported to PT4.

I know on PStars you can make a request for hand histories from the past # of hands/hours/days so you could get them emailed to you and import them from there which would fill in any missing HHs. Not sure if other sites have a similar feature though.

Bloody connection. This has happened a few times but I've never noticed before, only realised this time because it was a big hand. I'm on stars so I'll be able to import this one.

How do you manually import a hand?

In PT4 click the arrow (?) in the bottom right corner, it then pops up with options to import from file, email etc. Not sure how they actually work but I know they are there.

Ah yeah I got it now, thank you.

If you don't mind the extra variance, go ahead. But most of my money comes from loose-passive players- Even regs at at our stakes know how to avoid making basic pre flop mistakes( not all of them obv). So I think the best plan is to exploit them post flop, especially on the turn and river where the pot is the biggest and therefore the decisions just matter more. Also, if a reg is folding to 3 bets something like( my numbers are probably not %100 accurate) %60+ then you can do it with ATC and show a profit, so why essentially turn your hand into a bluff in some spots? I'd rather play vs a wider range by calling with AK and QQ(especially IP)

Also. If everyone is 3 bet and 4 bet getting it in with AA-QQ, AK then in the long run no one is winning money( reciprocality). Your just coolering each other

But if they're opening say 20% (I know that's a little loose but it makes the maths easier), then folding say 70% to a 3bet, they're still playing a 4% range when they call (assuming they 4bet AA-QQ always), most of which is crushed by QQ. So if we win 4.5bb 70% of the time when they fold, win 70% of 10.5bb (=7.35bb) 20% of the time when they flat (assuming we have 70% equity and IO = RIO) and lose 9bb 10% of the time when they 4bet and we fold, the play has an EV of 3.15+1.47-0.9=3.72bb each time we make it. I think the RIO for flatting are such that this is a better play.

where do you get 4%? 70% of 20% would mean he's calling with 6% of his hands. I'm not the best at math, but your numbers seem off to me.

7% of hands sounds like a good range to put on that guy. But you don't play poker in a vacuum IMO. Your making alot of assumptions. Plus you're talking about folding QQ preflop, which is a disaster because its totally unneccesary.

Like I said, it depends. And what do you mean Reverse implieds Odds of flatting QQ? In your scenerio, your playing vs the top of their range, while I'm playing vs 20% of their range

Also, your scenerio is fatally flawed by the fact that different villains have different post flop tendencies, so the ev of flatting isnt constant, it will change according to the villain. Open shoving AA/ KK preflop would definately be plus ev, but would it be the most plus ev decision?
That's why poker isn't played w/ calculators.


For me, I like exploiting villains post flop, where they are more likely to make a mistake, especially on the turn and river. Like I said, most regs nowadays( and even alot of rec players) at the very least have a solid preflop game.

He's 4betting AA-QQ, which is roughly 2%. I'm making assumptions about standard villains and thus arguing that it should be a standard play. The RIO comes because he's going to probably win more off you when he flops a set and you an overpair than you win when he flops TPTK.

Also, if you don't 3bet QQ, your 3betting range is mostly air even more so and in a vacuum it's instantly profitable to 4bet bluff ATC.

I'm talking about folding QQ pre because nobody 4bets JJ or AQ, so realistically if you get it in you're either crushed or racing. With about a 40/60 distribution.

Recovered from the disaster of yesterday, I went on late last night and recovered 2 BI so I was only 3.5BI down then today I won 4BI so I'm back to where I was! I was 3.5BI up at one point then quickly dropped 2BI and I was just like "no don't do this to me!!"; was fully expecting to have another landslide but held it together and got it back up.

If I have a steady spell at NL10 where I'm continously improving and winning then I'm going to take the step up to NL25 - my roll is ready but just don't think I could handle similar swings that I'm undergoing at NL10.