We're playing 9 handed the UTG player raises to 150 the blinds are 25/50 I'm in the big blind with 89hearts its folded to me so I call. The flop comes A of hearts K of hearts 2 of clubs, I check and he bets the pot. I started with 1400 chips and he started with 6000 . The thing is I'm getting 2/1 on a call, but I'm not guaranteed to see two streets. So because if I call I'm going to see just one street guaranteed and I'm guessing I have 9 outs that works out at about an 18% chance i'll hit my flush on the turn. I don't think I have much fold equity since he raised from UTG so can easily have a strong ace. Should I just fold?

28bb in the big blind and a raise from UTG 9 handed.

Fold pre

Against a 3x with 28bb I don't actually know if this is a call or not. It's not going to be a big mistake either way and against anything smaller than 2,5x I am not folding. Checkfolding flop is fine as an exploit if he's just never ever bet/folding.

Assuming there are antes in the pot, it's a call pre. You can make a nitty fold if there are no antes. I'd go for a call on flop and hope to bink the flush on the turn or get a free card. It's a great flop for villain's range, but considering your range vs his, this FD has more equity against him than a lot of your made hands, so you'd be folding way too often if you check-fold. (i.e. In equity terms, this hand is near the top of your range). It's not a massively profitable call (on the flop or pre), but you shouldn't be folding flush draws to a single bet on the flop, or there's no point in calling pre.

Hmmm. You called a 3bb UTG bet with middle suited connectors. You’re then hoping for a flush and/or straight draw on the flop, and you got the flush draw with flop cards that limit being overflushed. On the flop, villain the bets the pot after you check so a call would mean risking ¼ of your stack leaving you with about 20bb. You got what you were hoping for and your stack will suffer if you call and lose but you will not be decimated . As Arty (welome back) noted, why call with the SC if, when you hit, you’re thinking of folding against a pot size bet. We’ll look a little closer.

You did some of the evaluation needed to make a bet decision, pot odds and outs. You also made a general assessment of villain’s holdings but maybe not deeply enough. If you put in a range for villain such at top 15% or specific hands such as Ax+ Ky+, 88+, etc. I think you will find that your showdown equity is close enough to justify a call if the bet was all-in, needing about 33% .Your thought that villain is unlikely to fold to a raise seems reasonable, especially if it included some history with villain.

For using the 18% equity value, a call can be justified on an implied odds basis if you can win about 830 on the turn if you hit the flush, villain calls and both stacks have that amount. It’s a close decision.

Is villain really raising 15% utg 9 handed though?

Arty, I was assuming non ante since it wasn’t in the op. I’m not seeing how a fold pre would be nitty. How is calling with a speculative hand, short stacked, oop vs utg in a 9 handed game not burning chips?

Agree with Stat, Arty (hello) and since I fold pre, Syon. Don't agree with Kelvis, which is kinda rare for me.

Firstly, I don't consider 28bb particularly short. FWIW, I just ran the spot through Snowie. With no antes, it's a close fold (EV of -0.19bb; JTs is bottom of calling range), but with 12.5% antes it's a clear call pre (EV of +0.16bb, with even 64s being a standard defend).
Antes actually make a big difference, because - particularly in a full ring game - there's a ton of dead money in the pot. If there aren't any antes there's much less reason to get involved.
I should probably point out that in any other position with these stacks, 98s is unplayable. (You can't speculate with that stack size in LP, for example, as you're losing money when someone overcalls or squeezes). It's the just the fact that hero is in the BB and can close the action that makes it potentially +EV.

P.S. I just looked at the post-flop spot in Snowie. The flop is a call, but it's barely better than break-even (+0.08bb). Snowie actually suggests that hands like AJ should check-fold to the pot-sized bet, which echoes the point I was making that a naked flush draw actually does better than one pair in this spot, given the range of villain. AJ has close to zero chance of sucking out vs AA/KK/AK, but 98s has enough equity (and implied odds) to continue vs villain's strong range. If the flush comes in on the turn, you play for stacks, and if it doesn't (and villain keeps betting), you fold and still have about 17bb to play with.

TL;DR Every decision is pretty close, so I wouldn't say I disagree with Kelvis' viewpoint either.

i think it's a call. You don't have strictly 19% because you'll sometimes get the free card but you also don't strictly have 35% because of this same reason. You're gonna have something vaguely between these two percentages. To me it's a call because utg really shouldn't have flush paranoia if a flush card comes on the turn. From his shoes when that flush card comes you'll be holding a made flush about 15% of the time which is why i said he shouldn't have flush paranoia too often here. This is an awesome question btw.