Two Plus Two Poker Forums How to figure out long term winrate?
 Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read Video Directory TwoPlusTwo.com

 Notices

 04-21-2017, 06:38 AM #1 newbieguy stranger   Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 7 How to figure out long term winrate? Hi, Last week, I played online poker which is something I had not done for many years. I played 8.800 hands 6max NL100. My winrate was 12 EV bb/100. I was wondering how to understand such a result. The questions behind that are : -basically, does this mean I am a winning poker player in this field? -does this mean that if I continue playing the same way in the same players pool, etc.. I'd still get a positive winrate? -what might be the effect of variance with such a sample? I found a poker variance calculator at pokerdope. I don't know if I can paste the link, so i won't, but feel free to add it if it's allowed. So I filled the form : Winrate in BB/100 : 6 (I think 12 EV bb/100 means 6 EV BB/100, right?) Observed winrate in BB / 100 (optional) : I didn't change anything because I don't know what they mean Standard deviation (»?«) in BB / 100 : 38 (found in HEM) Number of hands to simulate : 8800 So they say : 70% confidence interval (»?«) [172 BB, 884 BB] [1.95 BB/100, 10.05 BB/100] 95% confidence interval (»?«) [-185 BB, 1241 BB] [-2.10 BB/100, 14.10 BB/100] So I assume this means that if the environment factors remain the same (my game doesn't change, the field doesn't change, etc...) : - there's 70% chance that my long term EV winrate is between [1.95 BB/100, 10.05 BB/100], so [3.9 bb/100, 20.1 bb/100] - there's 95% chance that my long term EV winrate is between [-2.10 BB/100, 14.10 BB/100], so [-4.40 bb/100, 28.20 bb/100] Am I right?
 04-21-2017, 07:38 AM #2 suitedjustice Bastard     Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: Inside my own heart. Posts: 4,818 Re: How to figure out long term winrate? I believe that's for 8800 hands only? Try changing it to 880000 hands and see what you get. Edit: I checked it out and it looks like the graph extrapolates predictions over a large number of hands. I think, though, that 8800 hands isn't enough to give the calculator the sample size it needs to give you meaningful results. Try bumping the thread below with your question. https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/32...u-run-1648950/ Last edited by suitedjustice; 04-21-2017 at 07:48 AM.
 04-21-2017, 07:52 AM #3 fidstar-poker I'm gonna need a hacksaw     Join Date: Jun 2012 Location: Spaining Posts: 22,558 Re: How to figure out long term winrate? Hi OP. You have posted this in the wrong forum. I have moved it across to the beginners forum. You will get better answers there.
 04-21-2017, 08:22 AM #4 suitedjustice Bastard     Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: Inside my own heart. Posts: 4,818 Re: How to figure out long term winrate? But variance is 1/3rd of what we do here!
04-21-2017, 09:01 AM   #5
Custom User Title

Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 7,521
Re: How to figure out long term winrate?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by suitedjustice Edit: I checked it out and it looks like the graph extrapolates predictions over a large number of hands. I think, though, that 8800 hands isn't enough to give the calculator the sample size it needs to give you meaningful results.
Isn't that what the confidence interval is for?

04-21-2017, 09:15 AM   #6
suitedjustice
Bastard

Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Inside my own heart.
Posts: 4,818
Re: How to figure out long term winrate?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by madlex Isn't that what the confidence interval is for?
Yes, and it's going to give you a very wide range of possibilities if you feed it a small beginning number of hands, was my rather clumsily-made point.

 04-21-2017, 09:27 AM #7 ArtyMcFly Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Dec 2014 Location: Enchantment Under the Sea Posts: 7,887 Re: How to figure out long term winrate? I think the Pokerdope variance simulator uses BB to mean big blinds, not Big Bets (or 2x bb). Was your standard deviation really only 38bb/100? It is almost certainly going to be a fair bit higher once you've played a larger sample. If your numbers turned out to be accurate (12bb/100, SD of 38bb/100), then Pokerdope says the 95% confidence interval is 3.9 - 20.1bb/100. Just from experience though, I know that this sample size is largely meaningless. I've had 10k samples where I won at over 20bb/100, but I'm closer to 5bb/100 in reality, and I've come across several bad players that were winning for 5000 hands that I'd expect to lose at -10bb/100 in the long term.
04-21-2017, 09:35 AM   #8
Kelvis
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 5,006
Re: How to figure out long term winrate?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly I think the Pokerdope variance simulator uses BB to mean big blinds, not Big Bets (or 2x bb). Was your standard deviation really only 38bb/100? It is almost certainly going to be a fair bit higher once you've played a larger sample. If your numbers turned out to be accurate (12bb/100, SD of 38bb/100), then Pokerdope says the 95% confidence interval is 3.9 - 20.1bb/100. Just from experience though, I know that this sample size is largely meaningless. I've had 10k samples where I won at over 20bb/100, but I'm closer to 5bb/100 in reality, and I've come across several bad players that were winning for 5000 hands that I'd expect to lose at -10bb/100 in the long term.
I thought it was pretty much impossible but I guess it might be correct if he is using EV bb/100 which has a lower standard deviation.

04-21-2017, 10:33 AM   #9
newbieguy
stranger

Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 7
Re: How to figure out long term winrate?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly Was your standard deviation really only 38bb/100? It is almost certainly going to be a fair bit higher once you've played a larger sample.
it's 38.5 EV BB/100
so 77 EV bb/100

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly I think the Pokerdope variance simulator uses BB to mean big blinds, not Big Bets (or 2x bb).
You're right. They mention it in the comments.
If I replace all the BB input by the bb input, I get :

70% confidence interval
[334 BB, 1778 BB]
[3.79 BB/100, 20.21 BB/100]

95% confidence interval
[-389 BB, 2501 BB]
[-4.42 BB/100, 28.42 BB/100]

I still don't really understand these numbers.

They say : "Your actual results over the simulated amount of hands will be within this interval 70% of the time. The first interval shows absolute numbers, the second translates those into BB/100, showing the 70% confidence interval for your winrate."

This is not clear at all imo.

04-22-2017, 09:18 AM   #10
ArtyMcFly
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Enchantment Under the Sea
Posts: 7,887
Re: How to figure out long term winrate?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by newbieguy 95% confidence interval [-389 BB, 2501 BB] [-4.42 BB/100, 28.42 BB/100] I still don't really understand these numbers. They say : "Your actual results over the simulated amount of hands will be within this interval 70% of the time. The first interval shows absolute numbers, the second translates those into BB/100, showing the 70% confidence interval for your winrate." This is not clear at all imo.
I think your understanding of the meaning of the numbers was correct in the first post. If you play another 8800 hands, there's a 95% probability that the result will be somewhere between a loss of 3.89 buy-ins and a profit of 25 buy-ins. Your "true" winrate is very likely to be between minus 4.42bb/100 and plus 28.42bb/100. Clearly, that's a huge range of possibilities (since you might turn out to be a small loser, or a massive winner), which goes back to the original point that there is a helluva lot of variance in poker, and the short term is relatively meaningless.

 04-23-2017, 05:54 AM #11 TedHawkins centurion   Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 151 Re: How to figure out long term winrate? You cannot really figure it out. You assume that yours and your opponents skill level remain constant, but that's not true in reality.

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Links to Popular Forums     News, Views, and Gossip     Beginners Questions     Marketplace & Staking     Casino & Cardroom Poker     Internet Poker     NL Strategy Forums     Poker Goals & Challenges     Las Vegas Lifestyle     Sporting Events     Politics     Other Other Topics Two Plus Two     About the Forums     Two Plus Two Magazine Forum     The Two Plus Two Bonus Program     Two Plus Two Pokercast     The Best of Two Plus Two Marketplace & Staking     Commercial Marketplace     General Marketplace     Staking - Offering Stakes     Staking         Staking - Offering Stakes         Staking - Seeking Stakes         Staking - Selling Shares - Online         Staking - Selling Shares - Live         Staking Rails         Transaction Feedback & Disputes     Transaction Feedback & Disputes Coaching & Training     Coaching Advice     Cash Game Poker Coach Listings     Tournament/SNG Poker Coach Listings Poker News & Discussion     News, Views, and Gossip     Poker Goals & Challenges     Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance     That's What She Said!     Poker Legislation & PPA Discussion hosted by Rich Muny     Twitch - Watch and Discuss Live Online Poker     Televised Poker     Two Plus Two Videos General Poker Strategy     Beginners Questions     Books and Publications     Poker Tells/Behavior, hosted by: Zachary Elwood     Poker Theory     Psychology No Limit Hold'em Strategy     Medium-High Stakes PL/NL     Micro-Small Stakes PL/NL     Medium-High Stakes Full Ring     Micro-Small Stakes Full Ring     Heads Up NL     Live Low-stakes NL Limit Texas Hold'em Strategy     Mid-High Stakes Limit     Micro-Small Stakes Limit Tournament Poker Strategy     STT Strategy     Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos     Mid-High Stakes MTT     Small Stakes MTT     MTT Community     Tournament Events Other Poker Strategy     High Stakes PL Omaha     Small Stakes PL Omaha     Omaha/8     Stud     Draw and Other Poker Live Poker     Casino & Cardroom Poker         Venues & Communities         Regional Communities     Venues & Communities     Tournament Events         WPT.com     Home Poker     Cash Strategy     Tournament Strategy Internet Poker     Internet Poker         Winning Poker Network         nj.partypoker.com         Global Poker     Commercial Software     Software         Commercial Software         Free Software General Gambling     Backgammon Forum hosted by Bill Robertie.     Probability     Sports Betting     Other Gambling Games 2+2 Communities     Other Other Topics         OOTV         Game of Thrones     The Lounge: Discussion+Review     EDF     Las Vegas Lifestyle     BBV4Life         omg omg omg     House of Blogs Sports and Games     Sporting Events         Single-Team Season Threads         Fantasy Sports     Fantasy Sports         Sporting Events     Wrestling     Golf     Chess and Other Board Games     Video Games         League of Legends         Hearthstone     Puzzles and Other Games Other Topics     Politics     History     Business, Finance, and Investing     Science, Math, and Philosophy     Religion, God, and Theology     Travel     Health and Fitness     Laughs or Links!     Computer Technical Help     Programming International Forums     Deutsch         BBV [German]     Français     Two Plus Two en Espańol

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:50 PM.

 Contact Us - Two Plus Two Publishing LLC - Privacy Statement - Top